So a bit of perspective on the Supreme Court arguments, from a lawyer who has a general familiarity with the structure of the legal arguments:
The UNC case and Harvard case are fundamentally different. While they could both be decided in the same direction, there is a very real possibility of a split in decision.
UNC is effectively a government entity – It is governed by the Constitution, and the 14th Amendment guarantees “equal protection.” More Conservative legal theory has long held that virtually all racial preferences are unconstitutional as violations of equal protection. Justice Roberts memorably has written: “the way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.”
But the 14th Amendment does not apply to private entities. In fact, Conservative legal theory has generally upheld the right of private actors to be racists. Protection from private racism comes from the Civil Rights Act of 1964 which prohibits certain private actors from discriminating. But the intent of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was specifically to protect the rights of black Americans who were subject to Jim Crow laws. The basic fundamentals of the law have not changed in 60 years. Part of Conservative jurisprudence is deferring to legislative intent and respecting precedent. This is where there may be a split in the decisions – You’d be hard pressed to say the intent of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was to prohibit affirmative action.
Where Conservative Justices may still find a basis to strike down Harvard’s policy would be in “plain meaning” – The plain words of the Civil Rights Act prohibit any race based discrimination, and therefore the intent isn’t relevant. But again, this runs afoul of how the act has been interpreted for 60 years.
The real key to the Harvard case is the claim that the affirmative action discriminates against Asian Americans. Thus, the Court could find that the discrimination against Asian Americans violates the Civil Rights Act, but that still leaves the question of whether it would require completely striking down affirmative action.
The 3 Liberal Justices take the view that the 13th-15th Amendments as well as the Civil Rights Act were intended explicitly to protect and promote the rights of black Americans, given the American history of slavery and racism, and that affirmative action remains an appropriate corrective measure.
I do believe that all 9 Justices are acting in good faith, and the arguments reflect genuine disagreement on both policy and legal interpretation. I don’t believe any of the 9 Justices wish to promote any racism or unfairness, but they have a legitimate disagreement as to what is fairest and most equal.
One of the Conservative Justices, Neil Gorsuch, repeatedly brought attention to the fact that many aspects of the admission evaluation favors white students – Specifically legacy admissions and recruiting for sports and activities that tend to favor wealthier whiter demographics (crew, lacrosse, etc).
It was also pointed out that “holistic reviews” have a history of being used as a way to limit the enrollment of Jews.
Of course, “holistic reviews” are very open to introducing discrimination. Which is why some places have tried to use purely objective measurements – civil service exams for government promotions and hiring, for example.
Yet the problem in higher education is that using purely “objective measures” isn’t really objective, as it bakes in structural racism.
Anyway, the Court certainly isn’t going to strike down “holistic review” though several Judges seems weary of it. We can be confident that “affirmative action” will be struck down or severely limited by these 2 cases.
But what does that mean? Even the attorneys challenging affirmative action made it clear they are not seeking total racial blindness in admissions – They want elimination of the box.
It became clear in oral argument that a college admissions office could still give an advantage to a student who wrote their essay about having to overcome racism. They can award students who show extracurricular activities that promote diversity.
What will be eliminated is the “box” that gets underrepresented minorities from being automatically evaluated in a different manner.
I fully expect this will lead to selective colleges also eliminating legacy admissions. Further, they will continue to try to promote diversity with greater recruitment in minority neighborhoods, looking for extracurriculars and essays that express diversity, etc.