Realistic Chances?

Hello, I’m currently a high school junior nearing the end of my second semester, and I am looking for an idea of how strong my current application would be for schools I’m considering applying to below. I am looking for a chance approximation, but also any advice I could use in the meantime to make my application more attractive.

Application:

Basic Stats:
SAT I: 1550 (New 2016 SAT, could still retake)
SAT II: Math 2 (800), Physics (800)
GPA(UW/W): 3.82/4.29( a few B’s in the humanities, all As in advanced math and science)
Rank: top 5-10 percent.
APs: World History (4), U.S. History (5), Calculus BC (5), Computer Science A (5), Physics 1 (5)
IBs: Not provided at my school.
Planned Senior Course Load: A.P. Macroeconomics/A.P. Government, Multi-variable Calculus (taking at a nearby university), H Spanish 4, A.P. Biology, Data Structures, A.P. English Literature, A.P. Statistics
Major Awards: None, as far as I can tell.
Minor Awards: Meritorious ranking in High School Mathematical Modeling Contest, 7th in Regional Programming Contest, Sentinel Award Every Year (High School Recognition awards)

Extracurricular Activities: Eagle Scout (also Senior Patrol Leader in troop; highest leadership ranking possible, 9-12), Mu Alpha Theta (11-12, elected President for 12), Science Bowl Team Club(10-12), Physics Olympiad Team Club(11-12), A number of self-study courses (Programming languages: Python, Ruby, PHP, Java, C++, C, HTML; Comp-Sci Courses (mostly Coursera): Machine Learning, Mathematical Thinking, Model Designing, Algorithms), a number of competitions (Log 1 Contest (11-12), High School Mathematical Modeling Contest (10-12), International Mathematical Modeling Contest (10), AMC 10 (10) AMC 12 (11-12), Regional Programming Contest (11-12), Another Regional Programming Contest(11-12), Regional Math Contest (11-12), Another Regional Math Contest (11-12), F=MA (USAPHO first round) test (11-12)), Developed 3 games, started an organization that helps promote Programming education for elementary and middle school kids in my city.

*Note, 12 means I plan to continue to take this in senior year, not that I have already taken it

Job/Work Experience: Working as a cashier at a local grocery store on the weekends.
Volunteer/Community service: ~100 hours, mostly for a local food bank.
Summer Activities: Course study, work.
Recommendation Letters (so far): 11th Grade A.P. Calculus B/C (10/10), 11th Grade A.P. U.S. History (8/10), 11th Grade A.P. Comp Sci teacher (9/10), 11th Grade A.P. Physics Teacher (8/10) (I will probably not use all of these); My Scoutmaster for the past 5 years (10/10) (if applicable), Counselor (5/10)(way too general).

Applying for Financial Aid? Yes.
Intended Major: Computer Science
State: California
School Type: Public, large (~3000 students)
Ethnicity/Race: European White
Gender: Male
Income Bracket: Not exactly sure, but my family makes about 90k a year.
Hooks: Legacy at Carnegie Mellon

Schools I’m considering: Stanford, Princeton, MIT, Carnegie Mellon, Caltech, Duke, UC Berkeley, Georgia Tech, Cornell, UC San Diego, UC Irvine.

Current Thoughts:

Strengths: Concentrated ECs (not overly general and mostly focused around Math, Science, and Comp Science, all having a Comp Sci Theme), Decent Recommendations, a few leadership roles.

Weaknesses: Stats seem somewhat low for some places (Stanford, Princeton, MIT, Caltech) No major awards. Out of everything, major awards and UW GPA are the most concerning.

I’m not looking for “don’t bother” or “you have no chance,” nor “Wow how great your application is!” Just keep it to plain feedback that is relatively neutral, with a chance classification. Essays are not published because I’m more primarily focused on ECs, though suggestions on them are still welcome. So, realistically, how am I?

Obviously “Stanford, Princeton, MIT, Caltech” are very hard to predict, and generally a long shot for everyone (particularly if no special “hooks”).

I am not sure whether the last two on your list can be considered safety schools for you – I don’t think that they would be for most people but your stats are very good. You might want to ask your GC about this.

The cost of university is potentially a big issue. You won’t want to take on massive debt for undergrad. If you don’t get much financial aid then even in-state UCs are a bit expensive. You might want to see if other CC folks can suggest economically safe choices. Also, find out what your parents think that they can afford.