<p>How does asking random people on the internet with no authenticated experience in being admitted to selective colleges qualify as an authoritative assessment of your chances for admission? </p>
<p>Look at Millerl1tes posting under Harvard Chance Thread and Responses: Why they dont matter." Kudos for crunching the data and discover the pattern staring us in the face, for which he should be admitted to Harvard. Heres Millerl1tes discovery: everyone on CC with SATs or ACT equivalents above 2150 have nearly identical profiles. So if selection is based on profiles, everyone above 2150 has theoretically identical odds of being admitted to Harvard. However, for this to be true, we must assume that admissions officers are deciding based on profile. If that assumption is correct, your chances are the likelihood of your name coming up in a sample on a target profile. At the simplest it would be like getting called for jury duty. More sophisticated modeling might, for example, target 2% of the class to be from minority A and for 50% of this sample to have SAT scores in the top quartile and for 33% to play a varsity sport. Admissions officers would essentially be performing an algorithm-based exercise in portfolio management to compose the entering class. </p>
<p>If admissions officers were paid like hedge fund managers, this might be plausible, but as a journalist who has followed trends in college admissions with interest, I can tell you that they do a lot of work for very little glory, get paid only a little better than journalists, and stay up nights trying to find the real you, not tweaking algorithms and Excel spreadsheets. </p>
<p>So, want to know your chances? The answer is 1/x, with x being the number of people in the profile you are trying to cram yourself into. Admissions officers I have spoken with would prefer to select human beings rather than profiles, but if you must fit a profile, try to find a unique one. Your chances dramatically increase.</p>
<p>I appreciate your take on the applications game, but I think it's silly to group everyone with high SAT scores into the same profile. If you were an admissions officer, would not an inner-city student with a 2200 SAT and a record deal stand out against 15 suburban 2300-score students? </p>
<p>It may foolish to turn to College Confidential for admissions forecasts, no doubt, but it's an even greater mistake to assume that all CC students with high test scores are the same. There's a reason why admissions officers requests recommendations, essays, extracurriculars and supplements in addition to scores: they want to discover the unique traits in an applicant. If there were nothing to look at, they wouldn't bother asking. :-)</p>
<p>I often see chances threads that include the following:</p>
<p>"Essays: great
Teacher recs: superb
Counselor rec: fan-freaking-tastic"</p>
<p>I agree that the intangibles of an application can't accurately be assessed through a chances thread, and thus 90% of chances threads are useless. One would often find it more helpful to post specific questions about their application/what schools suit their intended major or academic interests, rather than "I have a 2340...can I get into HYPS?"</p>
<p>Therefore, the premise of the chances forum is largely defunct...that's why I try not to frequent it, though it was fun in my first days on CC.</p>
<p>And this is the real chance that many kids have and they dont realize it. Chances are not static unless you want to consign yourself to a static profile. You change them in the way you position yourself. </p>
<p>The one thing working in favor of people who will think and not freeze is the increased workload and lack of tools for dealing with it in college admissions offices. Put yourself in the admission officers position: this is a job. All the romanticizing does nothing to diminish the fact that you get paid no extra for the number of good catches you made or for luring the superstar who was going to the rival school. You drive your own car, park it in your own garage or parking space, and do your own laundry. And when the workload starts encroaching on your ability to live your life, you look for ways to get it done faster. One obvious way is picking the real ones out of the pile, and if they have the credentials to make it, youre that much closer to getting your job done. </p>
<p>So this is the real opportunity for candidates who are stuck in a profile or vertical. Whatever you can do to stand out as a person and not look like everyone else in your neighborhood following the formula for success dramatically increases your chances of being selected to the school of your choice.</p>
<p>The real quesion is, what's the point of this? No new members who signed up for the sake of making a chance thread is going to see this thread. Even if they do, I'm sure that won't stop them from posting their chance thread. Yes, chances threads only gives you quantitative part of their profile but then again, that's what they expect don't they? You've accomplished nothing with this thread.</p>
<p>IMO, chances threads are actually worried, anxious applicants hoping for some reassurance or, at least, a group hug. It's about emotion, not about actual chances. If we (strangers on a website) really knew someone's chances, we'd be responding with "I think your chances are 92.7%" or "I think your chances are 0.07%." People just want reassurance and to feel that they are not alone in this. I know that's why I came on CC in the first place.</p>
<p>Yes, saw it, and noted. Very good info, thanks. Wkihow on applying to Ivy League schools got some good accolades. Also, your chances of success increase the more you establish intangibles such as character and identity, and some useful google terms would be admissions, identity, character. </p>
<p>Also lets not forget to mention that there is some good stuff going up on the CC home page, and to check it out when you get a chance!</p>
<p>I'd have to agree VeryHappy's view of chances. It's more or less emotional assurance that I have a fighting chance.</p>
<p>I take my replies with a grain of salt in terms of actual chances, but what I feel that I'm asking is if another person was in my position, how confident would they be about getting in.</p>
<p>Incredible write-up. I'm in total agreement with the "1/x" theory. It's interesting to see a bunch of scoreheads attempt to write up a "chance recommendation", when all they're given is a set of numbers to crunch data. I think that we've forgotten that admittance into a school can't be based on a set of 'standard' scores (which, themselves, vary depending on factors beyond scores).. but rather, it's consisted of a set of variables that change depending on the depth of your identity. </p>
<p>An MIT admissions officer put it to me like this:
"The university is a party.. and we're looking for interesting people to invite to the party. It wouldn't be fun if all the people were the same, would it?"</p>
<p>I'd consider myself a more liberally educated person - and personally, I only visit the forums when I want to feel bad about myself (when i'm playing devil's advocate with my schools), and when I need some motivation to score higher. If you surround yourself in something, you begin to believe it - and for this reason, I only come to the chance forums when I legitimately want score higher.</p>
<p>Anyway, rant aside, the discovery has been a sentiment of mine that has been in the air, but never gathered into written word. Thanks for the insightful post, and thanks for posting something often left unsaid.</p>
<p>Very well said uusunn, and appreciate the accolade, but some folks just crave that cognitive saccharine high. Poke ivy leagueme for a view on this even more blisteringly correct than yours!</p>
<p>I think ErikD would heartily agree with your MIT admissions officer. Hey, can we not take ourselves so seriously here? Especially now, since its not about getting a job in the investment banking industry anymore--- they abolished that with the Federal Economic Emergency Act</p>
<p>I think a chance thread can be useful for a student who is trying to get a reality check on his or her list...often there are suggestions for additions at various levels on the list. Thus, I think chance threads aimed at a particular school (particularly if it is one of the very most selective) are relatively worthless, but the ones with a list can be useful.</p>
<p>We get our intellectual bearings by bouncing our ideas off others, and you have to give people room to do that. But the value of this whole chances thing now seems about as relevant as calling up my Lehman broker for investing advice. Its main value is really as a traffic generator.</p>
<p>Noticing an increase in panic attacks out here as the ED/EA iceberg hits, and the massive scramble for the lifeboats begins. Whats really critical now are not the odds of getting in, but the odds of getting financial aid, as endowments go poof. Seeing a number of kids report getting zero aid. With the banks out of the lending business, your lifeboat might suddenly start taking on a lot of water as soon as you get in. </p>
<p>Its not enough to create better chances, you also have to create value to the colleges that are likely to accept you.</p>
<p>Honestly, the "What are my chances?" forum is just a gauge of chances. Everything in life falls down to statistics, no matter what the case. Sure, there are outliers and such, but probability always accounts for the majority of the data. However, because the forum works my actual people instead of calculated numbers, it gives the human aspect of the whole situation. If you see the following on a chance thread - "1670 SAT, 650/590 SAT II's/2 AP Classes, 3.45 Weighted GPA/Captain of Chess Club/Can I get into UPenn" - it's a given that they can't, and it's good to dash that dream early.</p>
<p>Now, what you say about all profiles above 2250 being the same can be right and wrong. It's right in that some users will post generic profiles, with stats and basic EC's. It's wrong though, because each user is a different case. They could be different ethnicities, have different talents, different regions of residence, etc. There is no set formulaic way to set chances, but because the chances are given by other human beings, it's a good generalization.</p>
<p>Lastly, and personally, what I like about chance threads is to see what my competition is. Who am I going to be competing with to get in? If my 2150 SAT matches up with some other guy's from Florida, what do I have that he doesn't, and vice-versa? And lastly, how can I boost my application to beat that guy and get into the school? The chance thread is very helpful in gaining a realistic generalization of chances based on human-given probability, and it is also quite helpful to gain insight on how you will fare in the world of college applications.</p>
<p>Although I did have my own thread, I agree for a different reason. I'd say ~80% of all "chancers" are people that say "you can get in blah blah, now chance me" without even looking at the list.</p>
<p>^ mmm...I must admit to that. I do that too, but I actually look at their profile and give them sincere and honest feedback, perhaps a bit disheartening as well...</p>
<p>Echo049, you have a viewpoint but I am going to disagree and I would say the majority of AO's are going come down on my side as well, and that is based on statements they have made both on and off record over the past several years. If admissions chances really fell down to statistics, an admissions officer could take a random sampling from every profile and be done with work very quickly--- if the admissions pool were an investment portfolio to be managed. The time consuming part of the admissions process is establishing value of the candidate to the school and the school to the candidate. There is are a couple of threads on CC you should check out for context: in-depth</a> discussion of harvard chances and why chance threads don't matter. </p>
<p>Also, don't see what gives you the authority to dash anyone's dreams: we don't even hear AO's admitting to that. I was way south of your example candidate's profile and got into Yale ED. That door would have been unlocked but never opened if I'd let the scoreheads dash my dreams. Looking back I can see now that it had very little to do with my scores/grades, and everything to do with how I used the resources at my disposal and how I proposed to use Yale's.</p>
<p>Mmm...I see. Those two threads are very enlightening ones. I agree for the most part, don't get me wrong. The chance threads offer no true chances; they are mere generalizations. However, I think they are a limited gauge of chances. They are based upon a weak combination of stats and EC's only, and take no account for the essays and recommendations, two of the most important areas of an applicant's admission. That being said, there is still a reason to say that the chances are only expected values. Anything can happen of course; that's why all the top schools, especially Ivies, are "high reaches" for nearly everyone, including those who've invented or discovered something in their high-school careers. The threads are inaccurate, but provide valuable information about who's applying to these schools, and also hold a limited degree of accuracy through the chances.</p>
<p>But then again, what do I know? I really am a CC noob. :)</p>