I think there are a few elite schools where the internal competition for the school to endorse a med school application actually increase the odds of weed-out compared to a top state flagship like UIUC. Hopkins, perhaps case in point?
Beyond that, I think it’s a matter of fit. I think there are students who thrive in smaller classes with more direct contact and attention from faculty, who are perhaps more successful at an excellent LAC than they would have been at a large flagship U. In reality there’s a lot of competition to get into med school, whether one experiences that high-volume competition directly or not; and some may indeed thrive in settings where being able to see where they stand in a larger peer group further motivates them to excel. In reality, none of us has our own control group, so whatever we feel about whether we chose the best setting for ourselves is speculative, and most people end up feeling that they made the right choice, whatever that choice was.
The observation that most med students come from larger institutions is accurate… but then, that reflects that there are more students at larger institutions, overall. That doesn’t mean that LAC students are disadvantaged, just that there are fewer of them. They could still have a statistical advantage, even while being in the minority, or it could be wash - I don’t have the data to say, and there’s probably no trend there strong enough to predict the individual case, anyway.
I do think Pomona could be a fantastic destination for you. You associate it with the word “tiny” but it definitely doesn’t feel as small as a more isolated college of similar size, because the Claremont Consortium has around 7000 undergraduates in the combined five colleges, which (unlike the 5 College Consortium in MA) are genuinely adjacent and walkable. Cross-registration isn’t a high-effort option requiring shuttle buses and strategic scheduling; it’s normal and built into the shared registration portal - when you search for classes, the offerings of all five schools come up. Everything from the daily schedule to the finals schedule is synchronized. Of the five schools, Pomona has the least need for the larger consortium, as it’s the largest of the five colleges and has the most balanced and complete offerings in its own right. But nonetheless, the consortium is there, and most classes will contain a mix of students. (My kid at Scripps, for example, is in a major based at Pomona, has taken classes at all five colleges, and meets students from all five colleges in her classes, regardless of where they’re based.) The downside of playing the EDII card at Pomona is that the odds are just as long as they’ve been at Northwestern, UChicago, et al… but maybe there’s no harm in long odds at this point since you’ve got a great default plan.
If you’re seriously considering EDII to Bowdoin, I would explore questions around transportation and access. Do you have a car, and/or will you be able to afford one at any point during undergrad? Bowdoin isn’t like Swarthmore, where you can hop on commuter rail and be in downtown Philadelphia in half an hour. Getting between Bowdoin and downtown Boston and/or Logan airport is more than a two hour drive. Will you be able to get to the shadowing opportunities you need, and so on? There may in fact be good answers to those questions - I’m not saying there aren’t - but make sure before submitting a binding app.
We’ve all been beating the ED drum because the priority has been to make sure you have full-ride aid to an excellent school. That goal is met now, so the bar to go EDII has been raised - there’s no need for further ED apps unless one school stands out as your absolute first choice.
We haven’t discussed Tufts much lately - seems to me that it has a lot of the attributes you’re looking for - it has more of the LAC-like qualities than some of the bigger research U’s you have been interested in, but it’s still a heavy-hitter as a research U and has more of those attributes than your LAC’s do… plus it’s in Boston which is one of the top medical communities in the world. And it has EDII. I guess if Tufts resonated with you enough to be an EDII candidate, it would have come up more by now… but just putting it out there since you seem to be expanding your list of possibilities.