Kind of depends on how you define “match” – I wouldn’t define any school with holistic admission poliices and a raw admissions rate of under 20% as a “match” — simply because those schools are definitely turning away more highly qualified students every year then they admit.
I think the problem is confusing the concept of “match” and “likely”. I think that most of the schools the OP has listed as “matches” are very reasonable targets based on the student’s stats, meaning she has good chances of not being rejected outright – but the results could easily be waitlist rather than acceptance.
@calmom, I narrowly define matches on the basis of probability.I do stand by my assessment that the OP’s D will get into around 2-3 of the matches, what’s your guess? Of course, she might be denied or waitlisted everywhere but that’s why we have safeties.
Just want to thank everyone for the advice again. DD decided she loved Cornell after visiting at the end of September. She was accepted ED to Cornell yesterday. We are done!