SAT Guessing

Test Preparation
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<p>Okay, so my SAT days are over (thank god), but I was wondering if there was any statistical evidence to support guessing.
I know, I know. Guessing on every question won't net you any points in the long-run. With -1/4 of a point every time you miss an answer, and gaining 1 point every time you get an answer right, every time you guess, you are averaging a total of zero point gain.
Where I want to focus right here is on that "averaging". If Bob takes the SAT and guesses on every question, his raw score will average out to be zero. let's compare him to Joe, wo takes the test but leaves every single answer blank.
Joe is certainly getting a raw score of zero. Bob however, will average a zero, but have a distribution across the spectrum- AKA sometimes he will get +.25, sometimes -.25. less likely will be +.5 or -.5, even less likely +.75 or -.75, and so on. while him getting a zero is more likely than a .25 score, which is in turn more likely than a .5 score, each score that has the same value is equally likely to obtain. Therefore, a -.5 is equal in statistical likelihood to a +.5.
Now here is the catch- on the SAT, there is a small discrepancy between your raw score and your score on the 200-800 scale. Its called ROUNDING.
Bob will on average score higher than joe on the 200-800 scale, even though they will average the same raw score, because Bob, who has an equally likely possibility of getting -.5 and +.5, will get a raw score of 0, and 1 respectively. This is because the SAT always rounds up for .5s, so a -.5 translates to a 0 while a +.5 translates to a 1. Therefore, Bob has an equal likelihood of getting a 0 or a 1 if he guesses. Thats all upside, and no risk!</p>

<p>All in all, im basically saying that because the sat rounds up raw scores when converting to a 200-800 scale, its better to guess, because the chance at getting points is better because of the flaw in rounding.</p>

<p>I'm not sure if anybody has asked this question before- if so, im sorry for repeating it, but I couldnt find any similar questions on the forum.</p>

<p>I understand that the gain of this strategy might be negligible, but I think it would be significant enough to make sure you fill in every bubble on the test.</p>

<p>Thanks for reading! Sorry about the long post.</p>

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<p>Rarely is a guess an actual 1/5 chance. Most people have at least SOME knowledge about a subject, even if they don’t know it. A lot of different opinions on guessing exist. I answer every single problem on the SAT. If I’m not sure of an answer, I can almost always eliminate 2-3 answers. On top of that, you can “play the sat” so by the time I’m actually writing down the answer my odds far better than the 1/5 stat.</p>

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<p>@elvispup, i understand that. this post is just meant to show that even pure guessing with a 1/5 chance for each question pays off in the SAT</p>