Scary timeline

@Happytimes2001 you are correct the OP is basketball, however, s/he didn’t state that in the title or first post so I’m guessing parents from other sports will be reading. I have no idea how girls basketball or lacrosse works (and don’t claim to) but I do know how women’s soccer works.

Surprisingly long time posters still can’t get over that Ivy league schools have coaches making verbal offers “to commit to the process” to Freshman. I am pleading for those folks to click on the links in topdrawersoccer and verify if they can’t believe it. It works out most of the time since women’s soccer is 1) a wealthy sport in the U.S. (one of the famous 1990s women’s national teams had 3 cardiologists as parents; very wealthy households = good enough test scores) 2) the coaches are very clear in what test scores and GPAs must be hit and they have some grades to look at even if it’s 8th or 9th; Those that can’t hit that quietly go to another D1 school. Also, families that want to get fractional or full scholarships know that Ivy has no athletic or merit money and pursue other D1.

The parents/kid post on social media when they get offers and relay the information to topdrawersoccer if they are worried the coach will rescind the offer. the reputations of these coaches who make verbal offers is very key. Kids that never play still end up at the original schools if they are top ones since the coaches can’t expect to pull a publicized offer.

I am not advocating HOW it should work, just relaying how it DOES work. It’s a horrible system for a lot of reasons and basically eliminates players who develop later in high school from the highest level of the sport in the U.S. (long run it’s not only bad for college but also US Soccer at the national level)

Reread post #33 since that other person has the D1 commitment timeline exactly right. We knew someone who committed to vanderbilt at the end of sophormore year and she was one of the last people on that team to commit. She was also told exactly what ACT score she needed ( in the 20s)

The issue of the reliability of early commitments in the Ivy never seems to die, and there are a lot of posters, me included, with pretty strong opinions on the topic. I want to throw a couple things out there for people currently going though the process of Ivy recruiting with their kids to ruminate on. The first, and most important, is that no coach in any Ivy sport can know what their actual team AI target is in a given recruiting cycle until May/June before a recruit’s senior year. This is one obvious reason why Ivys are prohibited by conference rule from conducting formal pre reads until July 1 before a recruit’s senior year. So any target standardized test/gpa level given out prior to that time must of necessity be a preliminary target. For that reason, if my child was given a target ACT of 30 as a freshman, and was not able to appreciably better that score by junior summer, I would not feel 100% confident that he or she would qualify to be a supported recruit. Second, in the context of recruiting, the fact that most kids who list themselves as committed as sophomores or freshmen to an Ivy end up getting in is really immaterial. The important point is how many do not. A kid who is good enough in any sport to garner legit D1 interest as a freshman or sophomore is going to have options. How many of you would really advise your kid to take an 70, 80 or even 90% shot at being admitted to Princeton or Harvard over a sure thing admit to Duke or Notre Dame? Especially if taking that shot at H or P means giving up on Duke or ND? That is the real question facing recruits and parents. Third, my son was the third commit in his class at Princeton. He committed in mid July before his senior year. The two kids who committed a week or so earlier did not get admitted. It happens. Fourth, and this is really a matter of opinion, but I seriously doubt that any Ivy coach, particularly those at HYP and especially those in more economically restrictive sports, is harmed at all by a kid who says she is committed as a freshman or sophomore ultimately going somewhere else. I think the draw of those schools is too great and I think most parents are willing to believe that whatever happened with said freshman or sophomore happened outside of the coach’s control.

@Ohiodad51 girls soccer is a unique beast . most girls physically are at final height 8th/9th grade - boys much later. recruiting is accelerated in girls vs boys soccer. Also ACL tears are a huge epidemic in girls soccer specifically and not boys and not really any other girls sport; so waiting also has the ACL tear as a possibility as a negative for those who wait. Duke and Notre Dame are unlikely to have scholarships left for juniors or seniors.

Duke women has 2 -2022 and 2-2021 commits as of today
https://www.topdrawersoccer.com/college-soccer/college-soccer-details/women/duke/clgid-27/tab-commitments#tabs

Notre Dame has 2-2022 and 4-2021 commits as of today
https://www.topdrawersoccer.com/college-soccer/college-soccer-details/women/notre-dame/clgid-43/tab-commitments#tabs

Again the system is not a good one, but it is what it is. I hope Forbes is believable enough for you all.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobcook/2017/12/29/ncaa-research-shows-pervasiveness-of-early-recruiting-especially-of-female-athletes/#50586bda4cc6

“college recruiting, especially for girls, often starts well before any athlete steps into a high school for the first time.”
"

"In only three Division I men’s sports – basketball (34 percent), lacrosse (30 percent) and golf (20 percent) – did more than 20 percent of athletes report having first direct or indirect contact with a college recruiter in freshman year of high school or earlier.

But that 20 percent threshold was passed by female athletes in eight sports at the highest level of college athletes – including nearly half of basketball players (47 percent). The other seven sports:

Softball, 43 percent
Gymnastics, 39 percent
Lacrosse, 37 percent
Soccer, 37 percent
Volleyball, 37 percent
Field hockey, 26 percent
Golf, 20 percent"

It appears that it depends on the sport. Everything @anon145 says about women’s soccer is true from what I’ve seen in my state.

You can take lacrosse out of those reports since the rules changed 2 years ago. Do I think it matters? No. The same kids from Long Island and Baltimore are going to the top teams.

@anon145, I am not asserting that early recruiting/commitments don’t happen. They obviously do, in all sports. As an example, Ohio State football apparently has 31 offers out to the class of 2021 according to 247. And I have no problem believing that this pattern is even more prevalent in women’s sports, likely due to the greater talent stratification among women athletes. What I am asserting is that the earlier the commitment, the less secure it is. As a non Ivy example, I would be shocked if more than two or three of the five class of 2021 commits listed by 247 at Florida actually end up playing football there. Coaches change, systems change, kids don’t develop as expected or get hurt. It has been this way for years. This concern about security is even more true in the Ivy because of the unique admissions system. This seems to me to be inarguably true, although I acknowledge others see it differently.

Also, for whatever it is worth, I have a real hard time harmonizing the idea that Ivy coaches in any sport are solely concerned with recruiting the best athletes, while at the same time arguing that coaches aren’t taking risks on academic borderline kids or adjusting their recruiting boards based on player development or injuries, in both the varsity roster and the recruit pool. Those are inconsistent ideas.

Ohiodad51 obviously speaks from experience. I agree with what he is saying especially for Ivy Recruiting.
Most girls are physically at their peak height by 9th Grade is not unique to women soccer; it would be true for all . womens sports
I had a daughter recruited to and attended a top Ivy (HYP) as well as many other D1 Schools and what coaches told us during the recruitment process is not quite what some posters say they hear from other parents of recruits.
I do not dispute that topdrawer have early recruits listed as committed to a top Ivy; I dispute how real that commit is from an Ivy school/coach.

for girls soccer what I’ve said is accurate for parents reading. anyone who’s familiar with girls and boys knows that 9th grade girls often look a lot like woman whereas 9th grade boys are usually a couple years away from filling out and stopped growth. this is a law of nature and why girls recruiting is earlier. It’s not really talent difference it’s physical maturation.

the early verbal “offers to commit to the process” generally do work out to Ivies for girls soccer ~90% of the time. Parents/kids that don’t want the stress of hitting a 30ACT can commit early to a different great academic school with big time D1 football that due to title 9 can’t really require a super high score for only their female recruited athletes: vanderbilt, duke, notre dame, UNC etc… And I’ve seen a kid not pursue ivies exactly for that reason. The legal tender of girls committing to the process to UNC in 9th grade is no different than the legal value of a commitment to the process to princeton in 9th grade. They are trusting coaches support will be there years in the future and they get through admissions and told academic do’s and don’ts. There’s nothing magical about Ivy vs non-Ivy D1 early commitments, except no merit/athletic scholarships and Ivies have an extra piece of paper in a likely letter.

@recruitparent correct it is not unique to girls soccer; however, I am careful to claim I know how girls soccer recruiting works. It is likely true for other girls sports so much so that softball and lacrosse have changed their rules to try to stop it, soccer has had no such rule change except timing of official visits which are irrelevant for top 100 D1 schools. Kids typically visit the campuses through a “camp” open to all.

If the article I posted has correct stats and only 75% of recruited athletes are admitted to Harvard that is a somewhat scary number for the parent of an athlete. If you think that your kids college future is all set and then your kid doesn’t get in?

@Mwfan1921 If you just copy and paste the whole link it will work, I don’t know why it posted with the last 1/4 not part of the link.

@anon145 Ok, ok we get it re: women’s soccer and YOUR opinions. I think there are other posters on the thread who have interest in various sports.

@Ohiodad51 Thanks for posting based on facts. I really appreciate hearing from people who have been through the process and report on what they ACTUALLY experienced versus what a friend of a friend, or a kid in some town, or my husband’s third cousin twice removed apparently said. There’s no real guideline for parents who haven’t been through the process so it’s nice to have insight from others. There are a couple of really good threads on specific sports ( fencing) for example where people get into the details around that sport and all of its intricacies.

@anon145, not to sound like a jerk, but you must realize that if what you say is true, and women’s soccer coaches are giving legit hard targets for AI numbers to their entire recruiting class two and even three cycles out, then each Ivy school must prioritize women’s soccer over every other sport except football, men’s hockey or basketball (which are governed by separate AI rules). Can you really see Cornell’s AD telling the wrestling coach (probably the highest profile program in the entire league, year in and year out), or the Princeton AD telling the field hockey coach (probably the best women’s program in the league currently) that their AI target is going up because someone needs to make up for promises made by the women’s soccer team three years before? There may be one or two schools where the women’s soccer team has that kind of priority, but there is no way it is true of all eight

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hey @happytimes the ACT30 was first hand to kid on phone from bottom third ivy after following up from attending camp. At Columbia (not school on the phone) the current girls at the school told my kid at a campus camp “a 30 should get you in anywhere in the Ivy league”.

@Ohiodad51 the AI is not differential calculus it no longer includes class rank and the top recruited players are not taking subject tests.
AI is a rolling 4 year average so coaches can have a class below as long as other ones are higher. Also why classes can be bigger or smaller than 7 likely letter slots. There is engineered wiggle room.

here’s a post a week ago from someone I have no idea who it is but was posted in the financial aid section. Go tell this person s/he is wrong.

@Karmakid these folks think you are making it up.

“Hi, new to this forum and can’t seem to find the answers anywhere. I have a daughter in grade nine that has been approached by a few Ivy league and non Ivy league coaches. She wants to commit to an Ivy league. We are afraid to make her verbal commitment public because we know that the Ivy league schools will match financial aid…”

http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/financial-aid-scholarships/2120950-does-announcing-a-commitment-early-sabotage-matching-of-financial-aid-for-ivy-p1.html

yes this parent may not completely understand commit to the process but the gist is correct. If her kid hits the numbers she will get in or else that coach’s reputation will be trashed. Soccer parents come from the high income bracket, there absolutely will be discussion between coaches/parents/kid of what grades and test score are needed before the info is posted on instagram and topdrawersoccer for 9th and 10th graders

although rules have changed for lacrosse since 2016 they have not for soccer (Yet) that impact this:
https://www.prepwellacademy.com/blog/10th-grade-lacrosse-player-commits-to-harvard

explains how it works.

"Coaches don’t have time to let a student’s academic career develop. This is why they pursue the best athlete/talent they can get - even if the student is on the edge academically (relatively speaking, of course).

If a coach’s #1 recruit doesn’t perform as expected on the SAT/ACT, there is still time to recover. The student can re-take the test and the coach can set a higher academic bar for future recruits (#2 - 5) to pick up the academic slack. "

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@anon145 You are correct that the AI is not differential calculus. You are incorrect as to how it works. The. AI is a tool designed to ensure that the aggregate academic stats of recruited likely letter eligible athletes in a given cycle are within one standard deviation of the academic stats of the four preceding entering classes. This is why the overall AI target is not known until the school has assembled its entering class for the preceding year, which happens in the late spring and is really the kick off event to the Ivy recruiting cycle. At that point, the AD knows what his or her AI target is, and except for football, men’s hockey and basketball, the AD can provide specific numbers to each individual coach. The AI number for recruited athletes is not averaged over four years, it is a single cycle number. What is more, removing class rank from the AI calculation has nothing to do with changes in the AI number. The score is derived from a formula based on GPA, ACT/SAT scores, and if required for admission, SAT2 scores. All the removal of class rank did was place relatively more emphasis on standardized test scores.

And since this is where this discussion always ends up, of course a coach can offer a true difference maker early, and as long as that kid’s ultimate stats are not so low that admissions can still stomach him or her, the coach can make up for that one recruit by taking other, higher stat recruits. No one to my knowledge has ever disputed that. It is called dumb belling and is why there are different AI rules in the sports where the practice was most prevalent. The dispute comes from the idea that classes are completed before testing is done and the AI score is known. That is just very hard to believe once you understand the process. Indeed, if you think about it for a minute, the prepwell academy post you quote actually supports that. The coach can hold on to a kid with relatively middling stats, but he or she needs to adjust their remaining recruiting class. There is simply no way they can do that until they know the actual AI number they are required to hit and the stats from the recruits they plan on supporting.

As far as @karmakid’s post, I have no idea what position the recruit is in. I can say that financial aid matching is available from every Ivy based on demonstrated recruiting interest. One great sign of such interest is receiving an offer. Based on my own experience and those of others I personally know, discussions of how the matching process worked happened way before the stage when committable offers were generated.

the AI is not varying massively from year to year so much that coaches are way off even 2 years out. Hopefully, @Karmakid (parent of a 9th grader wanting to “commit” to an Ivy ) will comment but his/her post is exactly consistent with what I have been saying in terms of verbal offers to 9th graders.

The NY Times says an AI of 200 which is fine for most teams is a 3.7 UW GPA and 1300 SAT. not that hard for rich white households which is why verbal offers can be made to 9th graders.
https://thechoice.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/ivy-academic-index/

During my son’s cycle, the AI went up one point from one year to the next at HYP, two points at Dartmouth and stayed even at Penn (I could have the last two flipped around). Depending on a kid’s GPA, that could be the difference between needing a 30 or a 31 on the ACT. It is just math. Which is why I said that unless the recruit can well exceed the target provided two or three cycles out, I would not be confident when the rubber meets the road.

And once again, no one serious is disputing that a kid or two can be offered very early. My son played with two kids who had early Ivy offers (early junior year in their case). Both ended up in the Big Ten, one at OSU. They were both good enough that a team would adjust their board a bit here and there to get them in the class. They wouldn’t do that for my kid, he had to hit realistic numbers before offers started showing up. Life is unfair. But again, the dispute is with the idea that recruiting classes are filling in ninth or tenth grade, or that an Ivy coach is telling a ninth grader “just get a 30 ACT or 1300 SAT and you will be admitted”. There is no way that is happening.

I’ve not seen this happen and yet surely there have been early commits who haven’t been admitted over the years. I don’t think the recruits make a big deal of their grades and scores if they aren’t accepted but just move on, and there will be 10 players lining up to take that spot at an Ivy or other elite program.

If Jane doesn’t get in, she might complain (or her parents will complain) about how unfair it was because she DID get the 30 on the ACT that the coach said was all she needed, but who knows if her grades were not quite there or if there were other problems with the application. Jane will move on to another school. The kids in her own age group will already have committed to schools and they won’t decommit to Princeton because Jane was wronged, some parents of younger kids will be “shocked” and offer sympathy, but when it is time for their own kids to commit to Princeton or Brown or Yale, they’ll still do it even if poor Jane was treated so poorly.

We had two kids (sisters) who were on the early commit list and they didn’t arrive on campus but did play for another school in our conference. Rumor has it the older one didn’t get admitted to our school. Do you think she wanted to publicize why she didn’t get in? We do not think the coach had anything to do with it or any pull to get her admitted. They were both good players and we would have liked them on the team and we were a much better team than where they ended up, but in the end admissions officers rule and a coach is just a coach and can’t grant or promise admission to the school, only a spot on the team.

I think the issue about coach reputation isn’t that a kid misses their ACT target. When that happens, it is not the fault of the coach, plus you are correct the kid isn’t bragging that they couldn’t qualify academically

The issue would be a coach telling a kid that they have a firm offer and are safe (pending hitting the academic targets) and the kids tells other coaches she is off the market. Then for athletic reasons the coach pulls the offer and leaves the kid at the alter after other programs have already filled. That definitely would hurt a coach with future recruits. Does that mean the Ivy coach can’t fill a class? No, but it might mean that the quality of commits, particularly the higher talent early commits, goes down.

I think to a certain extent the argument between @Ohiodad51 and @anon145 comes down to the coach erring on the conservative side with ACT targets. If they REALLY need a 28, tell the girls they need a 30. This provides some cushion, plus gives the coach a graceful out if a girl doesn’t develop the way he hoped she would.

I believe @anon145 that classes are “full” that early, as she had personal experience with women’s soccer and mine is in a different sport. But also the reality is that several of those girls will have academic or other issues that make them decommit. So I’m guessing there will be a few girls offered much later. But getting recruited late probably requires more work and will be more random.

yes @dadof4kids I agree with pretty much everything you said. the best advice is for the parents to make sure the kids are crystal clear on exact language (which in my experience is beneficial to have one parent in the room/ or on the phone for the last conversation to nail the details down. Also, very specific questions can be asked like “with a student like this and your level of support how often do they NOT get in?” FYI one ACT point is ~3 AI points and one 0.1 GPA unit is ~2 AI units, for those who care. So even if a teams AI changes 3 points that’s not insurmountable.