There are a couple of nursing homes/assisted living facilities advertising for full time help for jobs my kid can do. You’re right, though, there’s a possibility she wouldn’t get one of the jobs, but I’d think she could get something.
Neither the flu nor shingles lasts for weeks or typically involves ventilators or quarantines. In 24 years, I have missed consecutive classes twice and both of those were for only 2 days (no coverage, btw, just cancellation). I once had a nasty case of bronchitis that lasted 7 weeks for which I missed 2 class days. I certainly didn’t miss class when I had shingles, lol. Flu is worth one day.
In all the courses I have taken, only once did a professor take ill to the extent that he had to leave mid-semester, at which point the department chair came in and did the best he could to determine where we were and complete the material. And that sick professor certainly wasn’t an adjunct. The process now is you get back on the horse as soon as you are able. If someone was down for the count, it would be a considerable challenge to fill in at a lot of schools.
@ChemeAM- how can any school enforce staying on campus when teachers leave, support staff leave and students who are off campus leave? As far masks, there are a lot of colleges in the US, who decides who gets the masks, how many per kid? Also I assume k-12 have masks, that is a ton of mask and the supply chain is not there for that and will not be anytime soon, if you want a mask for mask sake , cut off a t-shirt sleeve, you have a mask, will it help, doubtful. You are fortunate to go to a school that has a big endowment, many do not and schools are bleeding cash.
The past few days a wave appears to be forming. State flagships throughout the country are setting the stage to return student to campuses in the Fall. Of course couched with precautions and criteria milestones, but they are absolutely going to try and pull it off. (CT, TN, SC, TX, AZ, OH ME etc.)
Why? Major , major money at stake. Plus, the consumer (students and their parents) are saying we pay for the campus and face to face, make it happen somehow. Virus, risks be damned?
It takes a few days to test positive after being infected, could be as long as a week.
It makes sense for flagships to try since many students at these schools move off campus after their freshman year. Some of these schools may also have a fair amount of part-time students. In many ways they’re very different from the campus-oriented privates and LACs.
Plus, call me cynical, but when the second wave hits and it’s bad, schools can simply close again. While keeping the tuition money.
It’s clearly a gamble many of these schools feel is worth taking, considering the risk to students and their own financial well-being.
@NJdad07090 The thing about Amherst is 97% of students already live on-campus and everyone is guaranteed housing all four years, so for next year you will probably have to live on-campus or learn remotely/take time off (the letter to students said we would likely have to commit to “limit [our] movement to on-campus locations only”. It also says “You might need to wear masks everywhere you go” and “We are acquiring the necessary supplies of these and other items.” I am aware that my college is in a very fortunate position. I believe surgical masks will be mass-produced and there will be plenty to go around by fall; my family had no problem getting surgical masks for my dad, who is a healthcare worker.
It’s not fullproof, nothing is. This will identify breakouts and will be a great tool in the contact tracing toolbox. In a community like a college (mandatory enforcement) it can work well.
It sure does seem like there will be a mixed bag next year—some schools opening on campus and surely some will at least start online. But as for the gap year option for incoming freshman, I’d still say if you are spunky and not in a hurry, this is a great opportunity to avoid what is likely to be a less than 100% freshman fall. Upthread I made a post in about 5 minutes with I think 17 off-the-cuff suggestions of possible awesome ways to spend that time. In 5 more minutes I could come up with 17 more. Gap year kids tend to be flexible and adventurous, and would be able to fluidly adjust their schedules based on what’s open and possible at the moment.
Things are changing by the day. In my state, the state parks have been closed but are opening up this weekend. It is impossible to imagine that by September, the number of amazing outdoor national, state parks and other epic outdoor locations that are open won’t be growing. If the Appalachian Trail remains closed in Maine by September/October, that doesn’t mean parts can’t be open In Georgia, NC, etc. And if they all are, there could be other beautiful state parks to go hike in. Gap year kids can easily adjust their schedules—these things don’t need to be planned in detail in advance. Same with the possibility of international travel in 2021. It certainly seems exceedingly likely that by January there will be places in the world to go to (even if 14 day quarantine is required). The odds that treatments have greatly improved by then, if not a vaccine, coupled with the need for tourist dollars and better testing and a slew of other strategies will enable some travel for the more adventurous (not everyone will want to do that!). But my goodness, if there literally are zero international travel opportunities in January, go work on an organic Macadamia nut farm in Hawaii—it’s called WWOOFing (world wide opportunities on organic farms) you work a few hours a day in exchange for room and board. But my major point is that there are unlimited awesome things to do in a gap year, even during covid times, and if one thing doesn’t work, they can pivot to something else. Yes there will be opportunities to work in nursing homes and the like—even though they are our babies, these are 18 plus year old adults who can get jobs and pitch in where there are needs.
But even though I would guess there will be more gap year kids than normal next year, I don’t think that fully 50% of next years would-be freshmen will take gap years, so if I had a 2021 grad, I wouldn’t worry about their odds of getting in being cut in half; nowhere near that really. But I would certainly encourage gap years as a possibility for the 2020s, to have a phenomenal year and increase the chances of a full 4 year fabulous college experience. Actually, I’d encourage all kids to take a gap year, even the 2021s and 2022s, and 2023s 
PS. Here’s just one more example of outdoor openings—read the last sentence: “(Update 05/01/2020): The White Mountain National Forest (WMNF) closed several sites last week as part of a tactical pause to assess operations, including staffing, equipment availability and to develop a phased approach to operate within CDC guidelines and prepare for the summer. As part of a phased opening approach in alignment with Maine and New Hampshire State Parks the White Mountain National Forest will be opening most trail heads on the forest.“. Imagine what might be open by September!
One of the problems I see at all schools is that come late fall and into winter people will be getting sick with the typical host of ailments. Last year at my son’s college there was influenza A & B, Mono, Strep, common cold, Mumps, and now many suspect Covid19 was present as well. It’s going to be difficult to tell who has the normal array of seasonal illness vs Covid19. Dr. Birx has stated, “we will never have enough test to test everyone everyday.” I certainly hope things change and tests become abundant. But I think more realistically we will learn to live among Covid19.
There is a rapid test available so I’m not sure why it has been posted that it takes days to a week to get results.
I am reading more and more that there are a huge number of asymptomatic people out there. This means the death rate is much lower and most people really do handle Covid19 without a problem.
NYS Governor announced that 68% of recent hospitalizations are coming from home! Yes, home! Retired people, elderly people and people who are not essential workers and not out and about. This is a huge piece of information that no doubt needs to be understood. Even Governor Cuomo said this was shocking.
There is clearly much more to be learned.
I agree with @ChemAM: professors would prefer to teach in person if possible.
But I worry that Covid will actually get worse before it gets better. A recent model from Columbia estimates nearly 4,000 deaths per day in June if social distancing guidelines are relaxed (and there is a bump in infections: http://www.columbia.edu/~jls106/yamana_etal_reopening_projections.pdf).
Interestingly, the paper also suggests that some states - primarily those with low populations (e.g., Alaska, North Dakota, Wyoming), currently have low rates of infection.
First person that sneezes in a class will have everyone wondering… Basic cold /allergies or Covid? Does this person just stay in class or “have” to go home (dorm). Lots of sneezes in allergy season and winter. Do they leave class to go wash their hands and miss part of the lecture or just use wipes they hopefully have on them? (if they can still be bought at stores). Does that students temperature need to be taken?
Does the University have crews to wipe down every seat after each lecture or is this some work study job for a student now?
Just rhetorical questions to ponder.
@EmptyNestSoon2 I can imagine what will be open in September - very little. There will be a second wave. And maybe a third. States are relaxing guidelines too soon, and we will fully understand that come June and July. The virus hasn’t gone anywhere. Relaxing state guidelines just means there is now room for more people in the ICU.
And if all kinds of things are open come September, then it stands to reason in-person college classes will be too.
There will not be unlimited opportunities during COVID times, not even outdoors. Everything you mention will be restricted if in-person college courses are restricted, for all the same reasons. I think a lot of college admissions folks understand this. Hence many of them saying no gap years just because of a possible online experience.
Also, fwiw, I think the days of the “full college experience” are over, at least for a couple of years. A vaccine is at least a year away, very possibly a lot longer. The fall of 2021 may be much like the fall of 2020.
With the social distancing rules we should see a very very small number of the usual colds and viruses. Also, if a school or city sees an outbreak of flu or other contagious cold this is the canary in the coal mine that their Covid protections are not working.
I watched the U of Arizona president speak and I was skeptical. Hey, it sounds like a great plan, but just not doable. And what colleges are going to be able to get all of these tests, masks etc? The ones with the biggest pockets, the most connections?
There isn’t this magical supply of tests and masks.
There will be hand sanitizer dispensers at the entrance to buildings and then spread through out the building.
Who wipes down the desks will vary depending on available staff, but I bet it’s professors and TAs. They are there and already paid for.
As an allergy sufferer I expect to be treated like a leper. 
On the back end, your D might think about when she would be graduating college…if graduating with what could be a larger than normal class (class of 2025, even 2026) there may be a very competitive job market, and/or grad/med school application rounds.
There are tests that may have an increased level of sensitivity by the Fall, as well as specificity.
Yep me too. I sneezed at store (with my mask on) and everyone stares so I feel I have to say something very clever like “it’s just allergies” ?
Re: unexpected long term Prof absences. I took an econ class last fall at our CC. One day, some of the kids were talking a class during previous term. The professor had a heart attack and died a few weeks before finals. I asked what the school did. They just ended the class that day and gave everyone an A. Unexpected things happen and schools manage to deal with the situation