So let’s say hypothetically this gets worse not better. Assuming mitigation works somewhat, we could easily be in a similar state in August that we are now, although almost certainly with more cases.
Do classes get suspended for the fall semester/or even 20-21 school year? And if so, I’m assuming all of the 20 admits will still keep their place. So I guess the class of 21 goes to the local CC, which by the way has a 50% admit rate now?
Gap year.
That works for an individual, but not collectively for everyone. Then the 21 and 22’s are fighting for a spot. That only works if it becomes the norm that EVERYONE takes a gap year. I don’t see that happening.
You will also see fierce competition for grad school, jobs, etc. within that cohort. If everyone gets a forced gap year next year, then you will have that one class (maybe fading into the next couple) where there are 2 years worth of kids competing for one year’s worth of jobs, internships, grad school slots, etc.
Maybe I encourage D21 to join the Peace Corp for a couple of years before college. Although sending her overseas to a third world country with questionable health care during a pandemic doesn’t really sound that smart.
This is the kind of thing I worry about. Aren’t you glad you don’t have to live inside my head?
That’s what CC is for, let out negative thoughts and replace with three positive thoughts.
From crisis arises opportunity. You’re a planner. Opportunity will present itself, if, this health crisis persists into fall. I have D20. She will not want to start with online school in August. I hear you.
Well my guess is college will go on in Sept, now maybe from your living room, if things get worse , I assume colleges will just charge tuition and not R&B, kids will take online classes. Some kids/ families will balk at this but at most of the colleges that we talk about say top 100, do not have that much of an issue getting kids to attend so most would stick it out hoping it would resolve it self by 2021. Especially if all schools are in the same boat.
I’m pretty confident in saying “no one knows”.
This is uncharted territory.
I think you have to be a college grad for the peace corps.
This thought occurred to me, but I didn’t breathe it aloud. Good old College Confidential giving air to my secret fear! My daughter just had a senior trip cancelled and went out (without my knowledge) and got her first tattoo. Goodness knows what will happen if college is postponed!
DS16 has a job lined up that will not go away due to all if this but if I had an aspiring aerospace or petroleum engineer still picking a college for the fall, I would be encouraging a broader undergraduate degree (mechanical, EE, civil, etc.). They can pick a specialty later with electives or in grad school.
My DD20 has picked a school that she will likely fly to but it is driveable if need be. These sudden dorm closures may get me to rethink our family rule of no car freshman year. It would be nice if she could just load up her stuff and get herself home, if dorms were closed.
@Cheeringsection some schools do not let freshman have cars on campus. We are also having discussions w my son, do you really want to be across the country at a school if something like this happens, or just a regular blizzard. One of his choices is UMINN and we are in NJ.
If this goes into the fall, I assume high school class of 20 and all other college kids would start online and get back on track on campus as soon as possible.
With a D21, I wonder if that group’s college search will be affected. Will colleges go more test optional if test sittings continue to be cancelled? Will fewer kids be willing to go far away for school and will that give a bump to kids who apply far from home if a college wants geographical diversity? Will fewer internationals apply and will that mean more spots for US kids? Will schools start to worry about losing money and/or students and will being full pay be even more of a boost than usual?
@dadof4kids, though there are lots of other international volunteer programs (which, incidentally don’t have the health/safety backup of the U.S.Government as the Peace Corps does) very few people get into the Peace Corps without a degree, unless they are mature adults with a farm background, business skills, or something else to offer. I know the Peace Corps has a (false) reputation as a place for kids to find themselves, but that’s not the reality. Lots of assignments are tough, in isolated conditions, far from any other westerner or English-speaking person. Not for an 18-year-old alone. Also, it’s a competitive, many-months’-long process to get vetted, medically cleared and accepted (an even longer process than college admissions ,in most cases) even if you do have a degree and experience.
Yes, some schools do not allow freshman to have cars, and generally I fully agree that a freshman does not need a car. Let’s not rush a decision in the middle of all this though and limit the opportunities that our DC have worked so hard for. No one must decide until 5/1, some not until 6/1. We will know much more within a month. If you can get in line for preferred housing without risking a lot, do so. Just do not decline offers of admission until closer to the deadline for enrollment at each school.
The knock on effect of this is going to be very disruptive, I predict. Top tier elite will have no problem meeting yield, but everything below that is going to face a lot of uncertainty. This in an unknown quantity.
This has been on my mind, since S applied to colleges in the UK where the decision has been to “keep calm and carry on” (no classes are cancelled, the assumption is it can’t/won’t be contained). Fortunately he’s here instate, but our neighbor’s D was a freshman at St Andrews. She decided to come back to the US yesterday upon hearing that flights were to be stopped. I don’t know what that will mean for her course, since she will miss an entire term.
I don’t think we can even begin to think of what the repercussions would be if coronavirus continued to rampage into the fall.
The hypothetical “What if a substantial fraction of the entire Class of 2020 took a gap year?” scenario is a nightmare. It would be AWFUL for the Class of 2020. Some of the things that kids can normally do during a gap year–like work for money, or get an internship–would be MUCH harder if we are still under a global health emergency. Workers in a lot of kinds of jobs that teenagers can do are being laid off due to the emergency…and if it hasn’t happened in your area yet, it’s coming. If the emergency continues, there won’t be a need for yet more retail workers, restaurant workers, childcare workers, etc. They could temporarily enroll in local community colleges, but those colleges are going to be overwhelmed with students under that circumstance. Another popular option would be Americorps, but I don’t think they can all do that. I don’t think the program is ready to absorb that many people. Another thing kids aspire to do during gap years is travel. I hope we can all see why that is potentially problematic if the global health emergency continues.
And yes, I agree that there would be ripple effects for the Class of 2021, though some of the problems are solvable. (Like if SAT/ACT dates are cancelled, more schools could go SAT/ACT optional, at least for this one entering class. It’s not like SAT optional is some totally new experiment.) I agree that the backlog of students from the Class of 2020 who did not matriculate in Fall 2020 would create substantial disruption. And that’s before we get to the other problem I am going to mention…
If in-person instruction for the 2020-21 school year cannot happen, it would be A DISASTER for private higher education. I am not talking about the richest 100 or so schools. They would suffer, but probably survive. The rest would be in trouble. Most colleges are TUITION-DRIVEN. Colleges need that tuition, room, and board to make payroll, whether professors are teaching online or in person. Students MAY be willing to continue to pay tuition to do online classes through the most prestigious name-brand schools.
But if students aren’t getting “the full college experience”–dorm life, sports, performing arts, clubs and organizations, an active social life–do students still bother to pay tuition for that year at, say, Goucher, Juniata, McDaniel, Hood, Albright, Susquehanna, Ursinus? These are great schools, and the educational quality is very strong, but students choose these schools because they want that nurturing, small college environment and the full college experience. Some students even choose such a school because they know they will be able to play their sport at a D3. I worry a significant percentage of students would choose to get gen eds done at community colleges online during an enforced gap year. Schools like the ones I listed would potentially be in financial trouble if they had to go a year with EXTREMELY REDUCED REVENUE from tuition, room, and board. I hope colleges have some kind of insurance which might help make up for the shortfall, but I am not knowledgeable enough about insurance to know if something like this would be covered.
I am not sure how deeply the problems would extend–how big an endowment would a college have to have to weather this storm?–but some schools would teeter economically. And it’s not like colleges can make up for lost time by having a lean year, then doubling the size of the freshman class the next year. For residential colleges, there has to be a place to put all the students.
So let’s all REALLY try to do a good job with this social isolation thing* over the next couple weeks and HOPE FOR THE BEST! I am trying to be optimistic. It is hard to have so many hopes and dreams for our kids suddenly seem tenuous, but we are going to have to proceed as if life is going to go back to normal at some point.
*Could we collectively agree that going out to restaurants, having parties, and going on family vacations is not cool in March 2020?
We went through this in Ontario in 2003 which was the last year of grade 13. That year there was a double cohort graduating (the last of the grade 13’s and the first of the grade 12 only). Universities and colleges expanded enrolment that year but yes competition for admission was much stiffer. It’s easy enough for lecture/tutorial based programs to expand but harder for lab based ones or ones requiring specialized equipment.
I’m confused as to why class of 20 will be disrupted any more than the kids already in college. Even if this goes into fall, it’s not going to go on forever. Kids in the class of 2020 will do whatever the current college kids do. If that means staying home, paying tuition and taking online classes for a few extra weeks or even a semester, they do that. Why would they disrupt moving onto college and not enroll? That would mess most of them up pretty badly and it’s short sighted when, for that class, it would likely only be one semester MAX at home and then back onto campus.
I had this same concern in regards to possible cancellations for SAT/ACT in our area so I reached out to an acquaintance who is a very popular professional college consultant/academic advisor in our area, here’s what she told me:
“If a big chunk of testing centers close and stay closed, it’s very likely colleges will have test optional admission plans this next cycle. All colleges are in a wait and see pattern, though, based on our (her company name) conversations with several deans”
I’m wondering how this will impact admissions for class of '21. Will people apply to significantly more schools out of uncertainty? Will fewer apply ED since they may not have had the opportunity to visit? Will fewer apply ED because of a financial precarious situation? What if the kids can’t take the SAT/ACT until Fall? So much uncertainty!