This is a pretty offensive statement for several reasons, but let me assure you that those who have lost friends and colleagues to this don’t see media hype as the problem.
I can tell you that if the drug is truly a game-changer, a tiny sample size is enough. The smaller the effect, the bigger the sample size needed to find it. The bigger the effect, the smaller the necessary sample size.
Remdesivir has a very similar drug sibling. It’s another antiviral, that’s almost the same, except the drug folks inserted a little extra into remdesivir to make it get into cells better. But it turns out either remdesivir or its analogue are wonder drugs for an otherwise fatal cat disease called feline infectious peritonitis, caused by a coronavirus. As I understand it, you give the drug to the cat, and it’s cured. Otherwise, it dies. Ten test cats and ten control cats would give you an itsy bitsy p here. (Gilead will not license this drug to be manufactured. They don’t want cat results to mess up their human testing. Kinda hard on cats and cat owners, but drug companies have perverse incentives. There’s a black market.)
I am glad the cats got better, but I think that is pretty irrelevant to human COVID treatment testing.
Please move the science talk to the other two covid-19 threads where it belongs.
I’ve been reading the value discussions on this thread through the lens of having a college junior and college freshman. Both go OOS to mid size schools, chosen for things like their residential OOS experience, small class size, passionate and connected professors. We did not focus on prestige, we focused on fit.
We are not making any changes for next year and are just going to pay the price for whatever happens, for various reasons. But, it does make a difference in where they are in their path. S19, at home, doing his classes online…sure, it would have been great to save thousands and have him take those classes online through say community college, or to make that decision for fall. But I have no idea if the academic experience of that would be the same as taking them online through his residential college or worth the significant discount. I doubt that it would, but I don’t have experience with community college (he does, through dual enrollment. He certainly never came home from high school raving about it). Wouldn’t we expect the same differences, in faculty, engagement, as we would if classes were in person? I do know that, this spring, he is still engaging with classmates and professors, and seems to have meaningful and collaborative projects. Yes, he is missing all of the residential stuff/campus life, but we’re not paying for room or board right now (and I realize that campus life is about more than a place to sleep and eat, and that it costs money to provide). So we are paying a premium for the academics but it seems worth it. It’s sad that he missed 1/4 or so of his freshman year experience at his residential college, and might miss another semester. Still seems worth it to keep him there with the level of academics and keep him connected with his college.
My D17 on the other hand is further along in her journey. She initially was thinking about a gap semester because, coming up on her last year, she doesn’t want to “waste” half of it online. She loves her school and wants to savor and squeeze everything out of it. But yet, after talking with her advisor, and time going by, she has abandoned this idea. Her online classes have been less engaging than my sons, but my D has strong mentor relationships, managed to keep some of her spring semester performance projects going albeit in an online manner, is in touch with her mentors and professors about moving forward in the summer and fall. For her it is much more about those relationships, projects, and connections. She lives off campus and is less interested in the residential/campus life part of her college experience, by the time you are a junior/upcoming senior I think that fades away for some. But she wants to be around her people and connections and projects even if at this stage, “campus life” is pretty much class and studying with friends in the coffee shop. It is more about finishing up and career development. So again, we are still paying, and it also seems worth it but in a different way. A little less about course content and more about the people (faculty and classmates that she collabs with).
I guess what I am saying is that with both schools and kids, for different reasons, even with online learning we still feel like we are getting some (yes, not all) of what we decided to pay a huge premium for in the first place.
@vhsdad , yes, the question of what to do during a gap year have been discussed, I think in this thread. Some are of the mind “not much to do” and some have come up with lots of creative ideas!
Well that’s true, for sure. The more personally connected we are to deaths, the stronger we feel them. I’m so sorry, politeperson, it sounds like you may have lost friends and colleagues. This is just horrible.
As for the media, I admit I like the facts, without feeling manipulated one way or the other. There have been lots of times with this situation that I do feel like the authors are being manipulative (possibly both minimizing and overstating risks, depending on the author). This can color how we feel about issues such as returning to school in the fall.
For example, I recently read a NYTImes article “An anvil on my chest: What it’s like to have COVID19”. They shared interviews from 11 people, all of them with pretty severe cases, including lots of hospitalizations, intubations, ICU, medically induced comas, etc. Not one of them said it was barely worse than a cold, even though the only people I know who tested positive said that. The average age of the interviewees was young, mid-40s, which is pretty young given the level of severity of the cases. It was pretty terrifying to read. And I’m sure each of the interviews was accurate. However, I do think it was alarmist—I mean even among tested/confirmed patients, I believe not more than 20% are hospitalized, the vast majority of cases are mild, and then there are all of the untested patients, loads of barely symptomatic or completely asymptomatic patients, etc. If the article was trying to give an accurate picture of what it’s like to have COVID, why didn’t they include asymptomatic people, and quite mild sufferers? We need to hear those stories, too, to have an accurate picture. I think the article should have been more representative (or else have a title, “What it’s like to have a Severe case of COVID19”).
I also notice that when we watch the news and they tell a personal story of someone who dies, it is typically a young person, with no underlying conditions. I see why this seems more newsworthy, but it can stoke fears disproportionately. Why not show the more typical cases of who is dying? I believe the average age of death is close to 82, and in my state, over 75% of deaths have been in nursing homes, with every one of those cases being unhealthy/underlying conditions (but very sad, nonetheless). Of course the news is talking about nursing homes being hit, but when they choose to highlight one victim, it’s usually the 30 year old, super healthy athlete. This does not seem representative of reality.
In no way do I want to minimize this horrible thing. As far as I can recall, this is probably the scariest thing in my lifetime; it’s terrible. I have washed my hands so many times, I have developed eczema on them ;-). But I also don’t want to feel manipulated one way or the other by the media. I would like the most accurate representations possible, and I’m not sure we get that.
I think having a clear, accurate understanding of the risks and the likely scenarios helps everyone to better discuss the possibility and the wisdom of returning to campus in the fall.
@EmptyNestSoon2 - It’s a dangerous virus no matter how you slice it; there’s absolutely no way of predicting how it will present from one individual to the next. My own pet theory is that viral load has something to do with severity (e.g., the effects from an infected person sneezing in your face must be more profound than that from touching a paper bag from an Amazon delivery) - but, what do I know? It’s much more of a roll of the dice without proper social distancing, IMO.
Cool. OP mentioned talking Gen Ed and getting them over with.
My senior at a Lac is doing this now. Just finished her senior thesis, living with a roommate and sees her group of 4. They have social distanced. Not sure about masks to be honest. They limit going to stores etc. Have picnics outside etc
@“Cardinal Fang” I got a 5 in AP Statistics and had to interpret the probability in relation to the alpha-value hundreds of times; trust me, my interpretation is a correct one.
@politeperson You are correct in saying that people who have been personally affected probably won’t see it that way, but that is true about anything. If you are related to one of the ten people a year in the United States who dies of rabies, you will probably think that is a big deal too. But the facts are, with regard to anything (not just COVID-19) and regardless of whether the news station is biased, in which way they are biased, and to what extent they are biased, they will always try to hype up fear about anything they are covering, because the more people are in fear, the more people watch, and the more money they make; that is just a fact. I’m sorry if you find that offensive, but facts are facts; they don’t change because people are personally affected by them.
Good points about the news! I have had similar observations about the reporting.
People are understandably reacting to threat of infection differently!
H & I were much more fearful of the virus before we got COVID ourselves. We counted a 15 person transmission chain (might be more!) at his job. No one needed to be hospitalized. No one had serious complications. Now? We are less fearful — but that’s not to say we don’t recognize that some people get severe cases & die. A distant relative of his — 70s & diabetic — passed from COVID this week.
So, re: schools? By time fall rolls around, people are likely to be highly influenced by what they have experienced in their social circles & my guess (just a guess!)
is there are going to be a (perhaps surprising?) amount of people ready & willing to get back to campus in-person.
Our student about to start grad school in a few weeks will have the summer term 100% on-line, but then expects to be on campus for in-person classes in the fall, even if it’s a mix of online & in-person.
She is mask-compliant. Works at a restaurant (yes, it is open), and in general, she is not afraid of COVID.
^ I am NOT criticizing people who are afraid. BTDT. I get it.
MIT published a detailed May 5 Town Hall FAQ.
Here is the link for those interested:
@TheVulcan Ugh. Not a lot of surprises there but all of the masks, tests, distancing just sounds like the experience cannot possibly be a good one. Not knocking MIT. This will likely be the model everywhere. Sitting in a single, taking classes “remotely” or donning your mask and sitting far away from other students. Great choices. (Insert eye roll.)
And I continue to not understand how kids in residence halls will eat. I don’t think to go works for colleges where student swipe and then have all they can eat. And where do they eat it? Back in their room by themselves again? Physically distancing while eating in a cafeteria seems hard to since lunchtime is lunchtime and you can only stretch it so much. Can’t just allow a certain number of kids to sit down. They’ll end up not getting kids in and out quickly enough.
One of my courses (which I’m scheduled for in the Fall) qualifies as a gen ed course and is also required for certain majors, so is a mix of students. My work for the course consists of preparation for lectures/labs, lecturing, labs, and grading. Grading is not an insignificant portion of the work. 25 - 30 homework assignments, 8 - 10 labs with assorted things to turn in, 3 semester exams, the final, and sometimes in-class worksheets or quizzes.
Obviously, allowing some “unlimited” size on my course could increase the grading workload to something well beyond my capacity to manage and would mean significantly reducing the amount of feedback or adding more staff to help me. So hopefully, schools would realize that it isn’t just a matter of space.
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This is correct.
(For the remdisivir discussion, I think a p = .059 is quite promising, given the small sample size. But on the bigger issue, I don’t think remdisivr will allow students to return to campus this fall safely.)
I’m fascinated by the idea that people will now have to work while sick. Will there be some criteria or proof that they have to provide to show that they are TOO sick to actually work?
^^^At many colleges, grading is mostly done by TAs. For these colleges, they would just increase the number of TAs for larger classes. For colleges/classes that don’t usually employ TAs to grade, they may have to start doing that for the larger classes.
I didn’t take it as they HAVE to work while sick. Most people wouldn’t have thought twice about going to work a year ago with a slight cough or even a mild fever after taking some ibuprofen to knock it down, but now that it could be a reckless risk to your coworkers lives things are different and people are staying home with minor things.
Yes, masks will be a given in all public spaces (not just at MIT) until there is either a vaccine or herd immunity.
They are discussing dining options in the FAQ as well, including the takeout, yes.
They also address the deferral/gap year question frequently discussed here:
"Q: What would you tell a student who is considering taking next year off to avoid the disruption? Or a prospective student thinking of deferring?
A: This is a difficult question, because we still don’t know what the campus environment will look like this fall. We also don’t know what the world will look like in September. Deferrals or gap years usually give students a chance to work or travel. This year, options for both pursuits could remain limited. In that sense, staying on track academically and rejoining friends, faculty, and fellow students is itself a compelling option.
We would always encourage students to do what they feel is in their best interest, of course. What you can count on from MIT is this: Whatever approach we implement in the fall, our goal will be to create for those students who are with us an extraordinary, meaningful, and memorable MIT experience.
Q: Is the size of the incoming first-year undergraduate class comparable to previous years?
A: Absolutely. In fact, we had a record undergraduate yield this year, with a record number of students accepting MIT’s offer of admission into the Class of 2024. Our graduate yield has also continued to be very high. It’s clear that a lot of people are still very excited about coming to MIT.
Q: What will be done if many students defer enrollment because the fall semester is remote?
A: Undergraduate students admitted to MIT may defer enrollment for one or two years. After confirming their intent to enroll in MIT’s first-year class, they are asked to submit a formal request for deferment to the Admissions Office. Such requests are usually granted.
This standard policy has not changed in light of Covid-19, and to date, we have not seen a dramatic uptick in the number of deferral requests from newly admitted undergraduate students. The various planning scenarios for the fall are taking increased deferments into consideration, but it is too early to consider what, if any, specific actions would be taken."
They also left the door open on tuition reduction if Fall is online:
"Q: If the fall semester is moved online, would MIT consider lowering tuition?
A: Right now, MIT is focused on determining what fall and spring of the coming academic year will look like. Once we have a clearer understanding of this, we’ll be in a much better position to make determinations about whether tuition should be adjusted."