“Then” no thanks. Not “than” no thanks. Can’t change now. Need coffee.
We’re operating the same way. A few weeks ago my son was hesitant to commit to his OOS first choice school. He thought about staying in-state. I told him to take the long-term approach. Look out 2-3 years from now. Made the decision quick and simple. We put the deposit down. Sure this fall might be a washout. Make lemonade when handed lemons. Now if we’re still having these discussions a year from now then it might be time to re-evaluate but that’s life in-general…change is constant.
I still think people are underestimating the damage done to the supply chain but we’ll see. Lets just say there’s a 6 month backorder for PPE’s…if that’s even believable. Not good for healthcare worker safety or morale.
I asked a poster who’s daughter is going to college in the fall if they are changing their plans in anyway and she said no. Besides we might see more kids choose their local colleges I don’t think there will be a major shift to actually going to college in the fall. Maybe more people will do gap years but I don’t think the numbers will be dramatic.
Hmmmmm.
What if colleges gave students a financial incentive to do a gap year…? Hmmm… That could be interesting.
Let’s say colleges open in the fall. How are teachers and students going to get there every day? It is fine for more remote schools where everyone drives. But I imagine public transit isn’t going to be a popular choice in metro areas. Dorms may be open, but commuting students and all staff/professors are going to have a problem getting to/from campuses in cities.
My kid is a freshman at a small LAC. Obviously none of us can predict the future. I don’t believe come the fall colleges will be business as usual. But my S will stay where he is, regardless of whether it’s online learning or not.
He is a science oriented major and the most difficult aspect for him is not having hands on in the labs. He also misses the close proximity of very helpful TAs. His classes are small , however, which he says is great. His cousin goes to a large state school and online learning in some classes he finds hard to manage because of the size - found it much easier in person.
The kids who were thinking of doing a gap year are more likely to do so now. But kids who aren’t thinking about doing a gap year, even the thought of doing online for another semester make them upset, let alone not doing anything academically for a whole year.
There is a difference between personal choice vs. legally possible. We can’t do anything about people chose not to commute for fear of the virus. If they don’t want to commute, don’t go to school. But IF things are open up in a big bang kind of way, say all the states are open for business in late summer (things are back to normal), doesn’t that mean schools are also open?
Assuming the states will be open up some time in late summer, how can the states be open but not schools?
If we are online for fall… The families that will be pushing gap years will be those that are going full-pay to an expensive private school. Paying full tuition for an online experience is very unpalatable.
Also, for those that DO have merit aid of some sort, not all schools will honor your financial package if you choose to take a gap year. And for those thinking they will take classes at the local CC, make sure those credits will actually transfer and again, that it doesn’t alter your aid.
My FY student does haVE a decent merit/talent scholarship and she is fortunate that it will be honored if she takes a gap year. Unless they change the rules on us…
Here are a couple of publications discussing how we might start opening things up, and the various trade-offs, with lots of good data, including discussions of schools and their potential reopening.
From Avik Roy:
https://freopp.org/a-new-strategy-for-bringing-people-back-to-work-during-covid-19-a912247f1ab5
From Dr. Gottlieb former FDA commissioner (NOT a personal endorsement of AEI)
https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/
But not all accepted students have the choice to take a GAP year. For example, U Maryland system, which typically has a stringent GAP year approval process has said they aren’t changing the requirements. And, with the large majority of approved GAP years being for religious travel experiences, they actually expect to grant fewer deferrals this year.
^^ Yes, and there is that. I was just saying people are going to do what they were going to do anyway. It would have been part of their plan already (taken into account the school policy). I just don’t think the virus changes that. It may give them a little nudge to what they were already thinking, again, part of the plan BC.
Let’s say 20% of the kids ask for a GAP year. How does that even work for schools? They have 20% less revenue this year and then next admissions cycle what do they do…admit 20% less? If I’m a school I would allow their usual % of GAP years under normal circumstances and once that number is hit no more. Sorry.
What is the typical percentage of kids asked for GAP year?
How will a GAP year happen if the kids can’t get jobs or travel? What would a GAP year in this environment look like?
And many top colleges and universities do not take community college credit or credit from online classes so that’s not an option for many gap years.
@StanleyCup2018 The reason S19 would maybe take a semester off is to just avoid paying full price elite school tuition for four online classes.
On days that I’m feeling pessimistic and consider him taking a break, I think a little about what he would do. Likely, he would take some online classes that won’t transfer but would still boost his resume. There are a lot of classes that aren’t offered at LACs that might help him come job search time - something like a data analytics class. He would likely be able to work to make some cash and maybe shadow some alumni since he’s so undecided on his career path right now. This is all of the stuff he could have done this summer and it would just continue into fall.
Re: Gap years because schools are not open in the fall –
If schools aren’t open in the fall, that means that a lot of other things are also not open in the fall. What kind of Gap year is everyone talking about?? Traveling around the world? Unlikely. Working? Interning? All not happening guys.
If schools are online in the fall, I imagine 99% of families will be deciding to enroll and participate in the online learning, or not enroll and withdraw from the school. I agree with the poster that said to have a longer time horizon. In the spring, or in a year, colleges will reopen.
@Nhatrang I’m sure that varies by college. The only admissions director I’ve heard comment about it lately was Davidson’s. They have an incoming class around 500 each year. He said they get around five kids who ask for gap years usually. He said, if that number was double this year, that would be fine but if it starts to climb to 25 or 30, he’s not sure how they would handle that.
Many big universities don’t even allow them.
@Mwfan1921 Thanks. Really good papers. I think the Roy paper sounds like a great approach.
I agree, he comes at things in novel, yet reasonable and thoughtful, ways. I also like that they are going to continue to update that paper as time goes on and more data becomes available.
oopsies — deleted extraneous stuff
He could self-study and take an actuarial exam or two. ?
I like the Roy paper too – but no mention of when/how to re-open colleges!