Not to get too far off topic, but liquor stores are essential businesses and were not closed here. As, of course, are grocery stores, pharmacies, etc.
Same here…
Does anyone else follow IHME data and projections? The latest update shows a drop in social distancing across the country in mid August. I can’t help but think it is a projection related to school starting. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
I posted about the CDC study on the sailors on the Theodore Roosevelt, where there was a big outbreak. The CDC reported, “Lower odds of infection were independently associated with self-report of wearing a face covering (55.8% versus 80.8%)”"
Good catch, @shuttlebus! I didn’t know that. Did those who wore “face coverings” wear the N95 masks? Did they wear surgical masks (perhaps from the infirmary)? Cloth masks, because N95s are uncomfortable? We don’t know.
@lkg4answers I have been watching the IHME model (which is actually several thousand deaths off as of today- projections between 112,200-112,623 and actually death toll over 115K) and yes they are showing much more movement in mid-August.
“I am sure MIT is so bogus.”
As others have said, while MIT did fund the project, this really had nothing to with MIT researchers and didn’t get reviewed by their internal review board because they got exempt status. They also say:
“Moreover, our survey sample size is limited, and further research should use a major survey research firm and larger samples.”
“It merely says, if we are going to open certain places, we should open them in a certain order: banks and dentists earlier, gyms and dessert parlors after everything else.”
Agree, but some of their assumptions are a little flawed. How is an amusement park or movie theater less dangerous than a store or auto dealership? Disneyland plans to reopen in mid-July, interesting to see what happens there.
That sounds low to me. In the state of New York, 25 out of 10,000 people 18-44 were hospitalized. Not 25 out of 10,000 infected; 25 out of 10,000 residents aged 18-44. Plus, in New York at the height of the epidemic, they were not hospitalizing people who were very sick and who would have been hospitalized elsewhere. So the 25/10,000 number would have been higher with better hospital capacity.
To be sure, we’re talking about the bottom half of the 18-44 bracket, but still. And let’s be honest here. We know that obesity is the big risk for younger people, and there are plenty of obese college students. As a group, college students are probably less healthy than sailors on a Navy ship.
I’m not a fan of the IHME projections. They haven’t proved to be accurate. Youyang Gu’s estimates have been better: https://covid19-projections.com/#covid-19-dashboard
See? Again. Picking on the reports - trying to say that they are not legit. These numbers are not for NY. They are for the US. So that number is 25 infected patients out of 10,000 infected patients were hospitalized between the ages 18-29. I can’t find it now but I did see that the lower part of the bracket was super super small. I thought most posters here agreed that students are not most at risk and they are concerned more about staff and faculty. My point is that, if a dorm has a spike, it’s not the same as that ship and kids will likely NOT be hospitalized. Like REALLY not likely.
I like this. First R- projection (actual too) that I’ve seen for large swaths of the world.
I agree that the IHME has not been very accurate vs actual.
I hate to be doom & gloom but the latest upticks in cases and hospitalization might just have colleges rethinking their on-campus plans in the fall…the stock market is a good bellweather not just for the economy but also the pandemic and it’s tanking right now…
@socaldad2002 yeah. I just don’t think this is over or any plans are set. My biggest worry is that S19 will opt to go for it and go back to campus, we will pay for the fall semester and then they will say no one on campus. What if he wants to change his mind and take a leave then? Most schools, including his, have a deadline for that decision and it’s two weeks after they divulge their plan. I doubt we could get money back and make that change in early August.
Hmmmm…not sure about the stock market being a good bellweather for anything over the last two months or so where the S&P saw its best 50 day performance since 1933. Seems like it was due for a pullback.
College openings will definitely be impacted by the level of community spread in their areas, as we know, CDC guidance for colleges is based on level of community spread. Things will likely be different for colleges in places with low to no activity, vs those in a hotspot.
Yes, this is very frustrating for parents and students. A good friend of mine has a son who’s set to transfer to NYU in the fall. As a transfer student, it’s particularly important for him to be on “campus” (if you can call NYU as having a campus) to get to know other students and faculty members. My friend is on pins and needles, trying to prepare her son for a possible disappointment while also sharing in and encouraging his excitement about his new adventure. It’s a tough balancing act for all of them.
I think it won’t impact college openings in states which are not impacted: as far as I am aware, none of the northeast states are seeing an uptick in cases.
I still think there are very few things at this point that can/will stop colleges from reopening, because they need that room and board money (not to mention tuition).
The stock market is a bellweather of what stock owners and traders believe the future returns to (stock) capital will be. There is some connection to the economy, but it is far from exact (for example, events in the economy that are primarily seen as affecting labor but not capital may not have as much effect on the stock market).
I don’t think the campus will close again because the school won’t want to feel pressured to return Room and Board money. Everything but the dorm is closed and they pick up boxed meals, but technically our kids could live there.
I never said it there was an exact correlation, just relaying what my wealth advisor said generally about the market, economy, and pandemic. The market is forward looking and might be an indication of what’s ahead for us.
Now back to discussing college in the fall…
@AlwaysMoving I was suggesting that the college might change its mind between the beginning of July when they state their plans and move in day.