School in the 2020-2021 Academic Year & Coronavirus (Part 1)

After a social media post about a pool party attended by students, Tulane sent out an email regarding gatherings and the rules of New Orleans and the University.

" DO NOT HOST PARTIES OR GATHERINGS WITH MORE THAN 15 PEOPLE, INCLUDING THE HOST. IF YOU DO, YOU WILL FACE SUSPENSION OR EXPULSION FROM THE UNIVERSITY. All gatherings, of any size, must observe appropriate social distancing and attendees should wear masks. There is no room for error here. People’s lives depend on your adherence to these rules. They aren’t just nameless, faceless people – they are our people."

The email included a link for reporting events that do not comply.

I have been very impressed with Tulane’s plan and the level of detail. They have reserved a hotel for families to stay in while awaiting test results before moving into dorms (you pay your own room. Tulane provides the testing). This includes a shuttle to campus for the student and one parent helper for move in. They are really trying to control who has access to the campus. Move in is staggered, 25% of first years per day, then after that staggered upperclassmen who live on campus. Parent can help on move in day and then cannot return.

Last week there was an email which allowed students to request 100% online and they will help you build an online schedule that works for your major. I have not heard how many selected this option. They are still claiming most classes will be hybrid/have some ftf aspects. 25% of classes fully online right now.

Louisiana is backsliding a bit so who knows. But we are advised to ship everything to campus other than two suitcases that will be allowed on the shuttle. So, if they change the plan, most of everyone’s stuff will be there already.

@Sybylla - I have a rising junior at Arizona State. They are about 75k at the main campus in a metro area of over 4 million people. They are coming back with a blended learning plan that also allows students to opt for 100% online. Arizona is seeing a spike right now. I have no concerns about sending my son back to Tempe based on the precautions the University has planned.

I do apologize for a little bit of a rant here. As a ‘glass half full’ person, I look at the data for college age kids. In many states the 17-25 age range is the highest positive rate right now. Please do not conflate “positive” with hospitalization or mortality. There are a few “herd immunity” advocates that point out for the population under 65 years old, the mortality rate is 0.4%. So, the relative risk that a college student that tests positive will require ICU or hospitalization is very low. What most “spike” areas are seeing is the 17-25 demo increases due to more testing with fewer restrictions. Meaning, this demo is getting tested even though they have no symptoms. This fits earlier models that younger people are more likely to be asymptomatic and require little to no medical care to fight off the virus.

I have used this example over on the ICE Policy thread, so for those who read it there, my apologies for the repeat. The return of athletes to campus for conditioning workouts is an early indicator of what we can expect when larger numbers return. Several programs, Clemson received the most press, have seen spikes in positive cases. In the case of Clemson, 37 athletes/staff tested positive. There are 90 athletes, but I do not know the number of staff. I believe the article stated that roughly 1/3 of the athletes tested positive. The most recent article I can find on the status of these cases is from June 27. At that time, ZERO Clemson cases required hospitalization.

I think schools can take precautions to mitigate the risks of this virus to both students and staff (higher risk due to age). Purdue’s President was very clear that he will encourage his student body to be mindful that many of their protective steps are to help protect faculty. He is confident the students will accept that responsibility and do their best to help.

@socaldad2002 I’m sure there’s a correlation between percentage of gap years and what each college’s plans are. Back to school at Duke? Sign me up. I’ll try to meet friends and get out of my parents’ house. Back to school at Bowdoin where I know I won’t be on campus for spring, I won’t meet any upperclassmen, and all classes remote? Guessing there will be a larger percentage of gap years. Everyone wants to believe that on campus will be better than expected and, if Duke only has 3% asking for gap years, those families are very optimistic. I’m surprised it’s so low though. Wouldn’t most freshmen athletes take a gap? There’s not going to be sports.

Of S19’s group of six friends in his Maine house, two are deferring, three are taking class, and S19 is on the fence. We have until Sunday at noon to decide. We asked one of the other Bowdoin students who lives near us and she said one out her four roommates is deferring.

What if fall does not go well at the schools giving it a shot? I wonder how many kids will be requesting a leave for spring.

@socaldad2002 - I’m with you. The two schools my DS’s attend are bringing students back. We all need to remember that a “positive” test is not a death warrant. The data is clear, under 25 year olds are at very low risk with this virus (CDC data link below). It’s not zero risk, but neither is the flu or mono or an STD. These are also risks for college students, yet we send them to school anyway and trust them to be careful.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

@usma87 You are talking yourself into believing that students testing positive isn’t that big a risk (which I generally agree with), but when they interact with the adults the consequences will be significant. Losing a few professors here and there isn’t that big a deal I guess, but if the football coach dies…that’s a problem.

The reality is that if students are going to do a lot of online learning, what’s the risk/reward of them living together?

Students will not limit their interactions to small groups and wear masks…for all of the reasons you point out (they aren’t really at risk…are they)?

Maybe. It is also possible that 2021 is worse for whatever reason. Do you think current students will keep deferring until it is back to normal (if it ever is)?

There is a finite testing capacity and processing capability. With cases currently spiking, and the specter of a second wave…or wave 1B, capacities and capabilities will most certainly become strained, if not deleteriously constrained.

For the record, I have seen no plan that would result in D21 going to school in the fall if she just graduated in 2020. I see zero downside to taking a year off as an incoming freshman and, as we crawl towards move in dates, things are looking worse and not better.

S19 has a friend at Cornell (which we all know is having all students back) and he is likely deferring even though he’s already paid for his off-campus living arrangements. He doesn’t see this working and sees no downside to waiting one semester to see how it goes. S19’s high school friends are all worried about their college’s plans and how their next semester will go. All of his friends are from full pay families and I think that’s putting pressure on all of them to decide if this limited Covid college experience is worth it.

Rising sophomores aren’t in the worst position. They still have three years of school ahead of them. Many aren’t even zeroed in on majors yet. It’s just that deferring is a departure from what they ever planned and it’s hard to pull the trigger. It’s way easier to just continue taking class and moving towards their degrees. No one wants to make a mistake and choose the wrong path here.

It is more risky the older the person is. In Colorado, 53% of those who have died were over 80. 90% of all who have died of covid19 were over 60.

That is possible I suppose. But, right now, one needs to look at the immediate choice in front of them. Is the semester as it is shaping up one that the student can get behind? Do they want one fourth of their college experience to look like these plans? If a student defers and then has to make a decision about fall 2021, the calculus will be different. That’s then a student who just took a year off and really needs to get on with moving towards their degree. They take a look at their school’s plan and figure out their next move. I don’t know if college will be worse in fall 2021 but it will likely look different than these fall plans in some ways. These plans are all being made with limited information and we will have a lot more info about the virus in 12 months.

Also, we should all expect there will be a higher than desired positivity rate on ARRIVAL to campus. The key for colleges to keeping Covid at bay is to test every single student on arrival and quarantine them. Extra vigilance the first 2 weeks with associations and close contact. Kids should hang with cohorts throughout the semester and testing needs to be frequent.

For my own kid I think she’ll be happy to hang out with a cohort of six or seven kids that have also tested negative and are doing social distancing. She doesn’t want to get sick. Also the pressure from the school on the kids saying that big outbreaks will result in everybody having to go home should also be a motivator.

For us, it’s not really about the virus and the risks since S19’s college isn’t inviting his grade back to school. I think a lot of students, including the ones who can go back to campus, are evaluating the fall experience and making their decision based on its limitations not making their decision based on whether they are afraid to get sick or get others sick. One can be cavalier about the virus (and I will say I’m not all that worried about S19 getting really sick) but you can still decide to defer based on how life will be like on campus and how classes will be delivered.

If I had a student going back to a school that said some classes will be in person, I would have him on the horn to his professors and asking exactly what does that mean. Even eight kids in a classroom with masks and six feet apart does not equal an in-person class pre-Covid. That experience is going to be way different. Could he accept that? What about life outside of class? No friends in his room, etc. Is that something he would want to go back to?

Not feasible for most schools. Have you seen the lines for testing in TX and AZ? I heard that some people were waiting in lines for 8 hours and then a week to get results (admittedly hearsay). How do you think schools are going to test every student on arrival and have frequent testing throughout the semester? I think a lot of the schools that are claiming they can do this will find that its easier said than done.

We are the best resourced country in the world and have been at this testing development for almost 6 months. We can do this! Most colleges I’ve read about have committed to testing all students on arrival so they must be using their big bucks to make sure they have testing. Rapid tests exist - machines have been in circulation for years (Abbott for example). There is pool testing, sewage testing, etc. The wild wild west testing with no federal testing guidance is not what will be used by private companies like colleges.

BTW, states that were hard hit have plenty of ramped up testing. My guess is that Texas and some of these other states did not ramp up in the spring/early summer because they thought there would be a summer reprieve. Unfortunately, that didn’t materialize.

What makes you think there will be no sports this year? Duke is in the ACC (one of the Power 5 conferences) and as of right now teams in this league are moving forward with football in the fall. If things get bad, there is talk of maybe pushing some sports to spring but as of right now, the college has not cancelled any sports to my knowledge. There’s way too much money to be lost if sports (especially football) is cancelled. I get it that the ivy league cancelled their sports but these sports are not huge generators of revenue for these colleges like it is for Alabama, Michigan, Clemson, and yes, Duke.

Haverford is mailing tests to returning students homes and they have to self administer them and then upload the results to the health portal before traveling to campus. No negative, no room keys. They’re then testing everyone on arrival as well, and the doing 20-30% survey testing weekly. They have quarantine and isolation spaces (separately) on campus. They’re issuing everyone a thermometer and masks are required everywhere all the time except in student’s single dorm rooms, showering, and physically eating. They are discouraged from socializing indoors and aren’t allowed into others dorm rooms. Dorm common areas are to be masked and socially distant at all times. Classrooms will be socially distanced and masked. Sports are canceled. Leaving campus isn’t prohibited but is highly discouraged. Anyone can take leave and start back whenever they want, all classes can be taken remotely.

What’s the false positive, or negative rate for self administered tests?

I’m on record here as having a low opinion of fraternities and sororities. In my low opinion, fraternity and sorority members will violate the rules and continue to have parties, thus causing outbreaks. This is what happened in Berkeley: the fraternities insisted on having parties even though parties are forbidden, and this caused an outbreak.

@milgymfam – Haverford’s approach is what is needed if there is to be any hope of limiting the spread of virus on campus. Most schools do not have Haverford’s resources.

I agree with @me29034 about the lack of testing and delayed reporting in the current hotspots.

@suzyQ7 – The fact that we have had five months and are back to NYC March level of outbreaks with inadequate testing in several areas in the country is what makes me think that colleges will not be able to curtail the spread. Some will…Haverford’s plan is a good example but many do not have the resources needed to do so.

I don’t know. Here are just a few recent stories. Just seems like all schools are making baby steps towards no fall sports.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/delayed-start-and-no-non-conference-games-heres-how-the-pac-12-football-schedule-should-be-played/

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/pac-12-commissioner-2020-college-football-season-a-lot-more-perilous-than-it-was-a-few-weeks-ago/