Except you don’t need travel to be en masse. You only need a few spreaders to be hopping around the world. No question vacationers will be reluctant to fly, but business road warriors will be back at it. Perhaps reduced somewhat, but they’ll still be back in the air. Cruise ships are not gonna be dry-docked for a couple of years awaiting a vaccine, that may never arrive.
I don’t believe that colleges will have that intense of a quarantine (set aside dorms) or caretaking plan for infected students. They are in the education business, not the medical care business. I fully expect as a parent that this would become my responsibility, to figure out a way to safely get my infected child out of there and taken care of. Of course exceptions would be made where this isn’t possible such as international students.
I have a D who attends college across the country, and I suppose my plan would be to fly myself out there, get us two hotel rooms, and take care of her that way. Even though she will be in an off campus house with her own bedroom, I don’t think proper isolation and caretaking would be easy for college students to do on their own.
This reminds me of when I was in college, several of my roommates (off campus apt) came down with chickenpox. They were told to stay home (meaning at school) and that was that. Luckily the other roommates had had it as kids so we could live as normal and made sure they had food.
As for housing crowds, I tend to think that IF things are good enough that campus can open, then study abroad will be able to proceed as well. For smaller schools in small towns where study abroad is popular, if one happens without the other (kids allowed back but study abroad cancelled), running out of housing both on campus and off is a big concern.
@Mwfan1921 – That’s why there has to be social distancing on campus – the protection goes both ways; it’s just that outcomes are worse for faculty and staff b/c they are older and more vulnerable, which I why I said it’s the bigger need.
Colleges will be the same as any other business that is re-opened – there will be masks, social distancing in public spaces, deep sanitation. . . This will be the new normal everywhere for a while.
Workplaces will start to re-open this summer but they will operate differently. Work spaces will be more defined, schedules will be staggered to reduce density in the workplace, fewer meetings, people will wear masks, things will be cleaned more frequently, hand washing reminders everywhere. This can be true for college staff and faculty too.
So, you’re right – campuses are not bubbles and faculty and staff can bring COVID in – but with new ways to work and WITH TESTING we can reduce spread.
I have heard that several school districts in Ohio sent out messages from their superintendents or are talking to teachers about how they might address social distancing if they open schools in the fall. Options included staggered days, morning vs afternoons for the same groups of kids, partial online/partial in person instruction etc. The fact that this has come from several districts at once indicates they are getting guidance from the state.
I would guess that colleges are also in talks now, too. If school districts have been told to plan for a non-typical opening/schedule, I think it is very unlikely things will be business as usual at colleges either.
Things that could improve the chance of colleges (and everyone else) making better informed decisions:
- Better understanding of true rate of infections (more testing needed).
- Better understanding of true rate of death (more testing needed).
- Better understanding of how to determine who will have bad outcomes (needing hospitalization, long term effects like lung or heart damage in recovered patients, death).
- Discovery of how to reduce bad outcomes in people who are infected.
- A widely available vaccine.
But whether any of these things will be available in time for colleges’ time limits to make decisions for fall 2020 is unknown, and does not seem very likely.
I should also add that Ohio recently started testing in our prisons and found 1,800 positive cases in one prison. Many of those positives (I think they said 50%) had no symptoms. College campuses are not so different from prisons, except that many students are going in and out into the community and would increase spread that way. Colleges are not islands. Public health officials will not care at all about the college experiences students (and their parents) desire. We have to function as a larger, single community and every action protects every single one of us.
I think if the idea is to encourage “some” social distancing, colleges campuses being open is a public health nightmare. It will either have to be intensely enforced to a much greater degree than the general community or there will not be open campuses.
Cruise ships and nursing homes are filled with higher risk candidates. However, what if being confined in close quarters and repeatedly exposed to the virus plays a bigger role in outcomes than previously thought? It could be a combination of proximity, exposure, and pre-existing conditions. Putting thousands of kids into a quarantined dorm might make it worse. We don’t know how dorms will fair. Schools sent kids home early in the spring. Still too many unknowns.
The same is true for every office/factory/workplace in the world, who generally have a far older and more vulnerable population than any residential campus. We will have to learn to live with the unknowns and a degree of risk most Americans haven’t experienced in their lifetimes, but we will all manage.
@ucbalumnus – Agreed.
Better treatments are coming (not just testing drugs but also things like new approaches for getting O2 levels ups in the most critical patients so vents aren’t as important). And, we’ll eventually get a vaccine.
While scientists are working on those, the focus for states is getting the whole testing apparatus running smoothly and at sufficient scale – from PPE for the HCWs giving the tests to the swabs and other supplies needed for rapid analysis. It’s a huge lift but it’s the fundamental capacity every state needs to get things going again. My H works in our state government and he says it’s the laser focus right now. It’s very hard b/c every state is competing against all others for the PPE and other supplies b/c the federal response never got off the ground and there’s no national coordination (failed leadership and execution). It’s all been punted to states; they will get it done but it will take some time.
Good article on testing needs: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-testing-states.html?referringSource=articleShare&fbclid=IwAR0SaWrWQ1TFPS3LIISGaQGN4nhiqDMAviEwAaubdGcH83u8tVA1lCDYEuM
Agree that colleges having confidence around there being sufficient testing by Fall by June when they need to make decisions seems doubtful.
My prediction is that many colleges divide 1st semester into two mini-mesters with the hope that by Aug they might have enough of an understanding on where things will be in Oct. to bring students back for the final 7 weeks of the semester – which may or may not happen either.
The problem is COV-19 is not the seasonal flu and we don’t have any vaccines yet for COV-19, unlike with many flus. We don’t shutdown the world for a few months for the common flu, this is much worse, unless you think all the world’s health experts are lying to us and its a conspiracy?
@pickleberry7 – yes, I’m taking it as a given that when colleges first re-open they will be more or less closed to the public for some time. And I think they will have to follow county/state social distancing guidelines re: large gatherings and masks. Where I think they will have to work with state/county officials is social distancing policies around dorms and such.
I need to learn more about the prison studies, b/c I think I saw one with similar results in my state. Still puzzling through all the implications – but seems like this means dorms would be less dangerous for occupants compared to, for example, nursing homes. But does mean they are more likely to be super spreaders so students are more dangerous for older adults on campus. . . Is that right?
This is not the flu. Any such comparison is utterly useless. No one deals with flu patients in PPE, masks, gloves and face shields.
I think there are many parents who either will not be able to fly across the country and live in a hotel for two weeks or do not have the resources to do so. I agree with you entirely that proper care and isolation will not be possible among college students sharing a house/apt.
Re: Study Abroad. I don’t think many countries will welcome American students with open arms while we still have rising case counts and those countries are attempting to keep or move their case counts to a flat or declining level. Didn’t the US State Dept stop issuing student visas last month? I cannot us reopening quickly either, but that is just my own speculation.
So you have a choice to make. You could send your child to a community college for a year or two, then transfer when the “full college experience” is closer to reality.
Or send your child to the private college and have your child live off campus. Not perfect but perhaps close enough to that “full college experience”.
Or take a gap year and try again next year.
No one likes these options. You’re not alone in debating this. But that’s the reality we have. Getting mad, or being angry at the colleges, isn’t going to do any good.
The maturity we as parents show in these difficult times will be as much a learning opportunity for our kids as many a college class.
@katliamom – Yes, we are examples to our kids right now. After all, colleges want exactly what students and parents want right now – they just can’t provide it through no fault of their own.
As my H said the other day, “This is hard for our kids, but at least we’re not sending them off to war like other generations have.”
I admit I was a little teary when my D did her ‘virtual’ formal this weekend – dressing up in her room for a Zoom formal pales compared to the real thing. Just one small example.
But we all have to keep things in perspective – esp. if we’re healthy and have not lost loved ones, have enough food to eat, and a safe place to live. Many, many are not so lucky.
Our kids will be resilient and go on to lead productive lives. For now, we need to take care of each other and our community (donate to food banks if you can!) And make sure to voice our concerns and put energy toward being better prepared for something like this next time.
My kiddo said “it sucks but it’s not cancer, whatever comes next I’ll deal”.
Honestly I think the parents project too much of their own feelings into the matter. The kids are fine, not ideal obviously, but it’s not the end of the world.
Every country is competing for PPE’s, not just states. Every country is also competing for drugs and API’s. America has off-shored much of that capability.
What happens if colleges open their campus in the fall and offer online as well for a discount? Yes they want kids back on campus but maybe not to many, they get some additional funding from dorms which they need, they take a loss on online but at least they can make a case we gave both you choose, campus may look like summer session, not as many kids. No idea how a school predicts who takes them up on their offer but they should be use to yield models. Dorms at 50% fill rates, your double just became a single for a semester, your 2 bedroom apt becomes a single, per room for a semester. Not idea but nothing will be.
I have thought about the idea of colleges offering both in person and online classes. The only reason I think they might do this is to offer online for students who might have health issues or compromised immune systems. It might be a way for them to avoid lawsuits. I doubt there would be a discount though. I think that would be a slippery slope to travel down for the school’s future.
There is more and more evidence that CV has been among us and circulating as early as January which is good news. I do believe college campuses will open but it is a risk each individual will have to calculate. If my child had a compromised immune system I’m not sure I would send him/her.