Some of the NYC subway media photos show subway cars with full seats but only a few people standing. That is inadequate for recommended social distancing to avoid passing the virus, but it is probably much less crowded than the crush loads* that were probably the norm before the virus.
*As in, every seat filled, and all floor space packed with standing people who can barely move.
With all due respect, Purdue only said it “intends” to offer classes on campus. Over 1100 words which is boiled down to, ‘we care, we’re working on it and hope to see you in august’. (Unsaid is, ‘send in your deposit by May 1’.)
I’m sure nearly every other college also ‘intends’ to hold classes on campus, while they are still actively working on Plan B (as is Purdue).
I don’t know how colleges can allow a bunch of students to take gap years and even gap semesters, as they have an operating budget they need to maintain just like any other business. Maybe they can accommodate 10%? but they are not going to jeopardize losing most of their tuition revenue this year and have a serious impact on next year’s freshman class with 50% less seats for them as the gap year students come back to campus? Gap year is just not going to happen for a large segment of the incoming class this year.
Secondly, for the few kids that do take a gap year, there will be plenty for them to do, part-time jobs will be available in the fall as the country will be open for business then (even though colleges may still be online), they can volunteer which many businesses may welcome instead of having to pay full time employees, they can learn a musical instrument, take a “fun” class locally, study a foreign languge, maybe even travel locally next spring?
IMO, during this pandemic, the gap year is not about doing lots of research or traveling the world (like years past) its about having not to “waste” your freshman year taking online classes and not getting the full college experience for 4 years.
Different mindset this time around.
There have been 10 pandemics in the past 250 years. In every case, there has been a second surge 6 months after the onset of the first wave, and the second surge was worse than the first. It’s unlikely that this thing is going away after the peak this spring abates. We will probably not be back to normal until there is a vaccine.
There will never be social distancing on the NYC subway. Currently they have a bigger problem in that the homeless have moved in now that it isn’t mobbed. The even larger problem is that essential healthcare workers are still using the subway so we have the homeless population and the healthcare workers mixing on the subway.
I do believe NYC could have this behind them sooner than later since it turned out to be a Tsunami rather than a slow the wave.
Guess it depends on what you consider normal. I am confident businesses and schools will reopen well before a vaccine, as no one can wait 2 years. I am not sure the public will maintain shelter in place for more than another month or two at most.
Gap year people looking for work will be competing with other unemployed people who cannot go back to their previous employers because their previous employers went out of business.
I know exactly what my D20 would do during a gap year…
Minecraft
Animal Crossing
YouTube
Sims
However, even if businesses reopen, they may see loss of business from the general public not wanting to eat in crowded restaurants, see movies in crowded theaters, shop in crowded stores, etc… What I saw before there were government orders restricting restaurants was that eat-in restaurant business was crashing hard due to public fear of getting the virus.
Freshman year online sucks.
But if going to college next year was the best way for today’s HS senior to spend the next year of their life, then, even under the current circumstances (and, perhaps, especially under the current circumstances), it could very well still be the best way for them to spend the next year of their life.
@socaldad2002 - I agree with the above that most part time jobs will either be taken by adults who need to feed their families or usually its small businesses that provide these jobs. Many small business may not be allowed to open, have or will go under or will instead turn to their families to do extra jobs to keep money within family.
However I totally agree with you on the IMO stupid idea of many parents I have spoken with about travelling the world during Fall semester and then having little Johnny or Jane go to school in January or take the entire year off. First, if there is only online college in the Fall, open unrestricted international travel will be limited and second many colleges cannot afford giving a year off to a majority of the kids. So many of the schools lost double digit amounts of money in their endowments over the past two months.
Suck up the online Fall semester and go to school in January. Schools will have to open by then. If they do not our economy will take a decade at least to bounce back and these kids will have a difficult time finding any job, Walmart or otherwise when the graduate in 4 years.
Another reason to not settle for a “lesser” school than their previous top choice.
Give your kids every advantage you can.
Ok I have a question about the second wave in regard to schools opening late. In 1918 Pandemic, the second wave came six months after the first. For us, that would be October. So, would it be more “safe” for schools to shoot for January opening if a school is considering moving their fall start date? Would that make it more likely that the Jan-May term could be completed without sending kids home?
Next year online. Anything else is gravy.
@TheVulcan I’ll make a bet that some schools will choose to put off fall semester in order to be in person. There’s just too much push back already from parents and students at elite universities and LACs. They do not want online. They want fall pushed off. If that works, it’s win win because colleges will get full tuition and room and board for “fall” semester and they won’t have to deal with leave of absences for current students.
That 20% unemployment is not equal across professions. Most of the new unemployment filings are from restaurant workers, factory workers, sales, hotels, personal service workers. I don’t think any more history teachers are looking for jobs than were 6 months ago.
The problem is no one knows even with antibody testing. We are in uncharted waters here. No one knows how long the immunity lasts if at all and depends on what type of covaid you get. It’s just false security at this point.
First come first served. They will have to put a limit on it I would imagine since then they would have no clue how many would actually follow through with it.
I don’t know about history teachers, but I know two lawyers who were laid off, two major law firms closed down, a top architecture firm has laid off and is planning more layoffs; engineers working 50% time and facing layoffs. We have a meltdown in the oil and gas industry, real estate, and ALL businesses heavily linked to tourism, transportation, professional sports, the concert industry – I could go on. All these businesses hire highly educated business people, attorneys & analysts.
It’s wishful thinking and quire incorrect to believe that most of the unemployment filings are “from restaurant workers, factory workers, sales, hotels, personal service workers.”
Not yet, we don’t know. But I read what one concierge doctor told her patients and she thinks based on what other coronaviruses do, if this is anything similar it would provide immunity for some time if not permanently. (She compared it to what SARS and MERS do). that is if i understood what she was saying. I"m not a doctor and I have no idea. Dr. Fauci said he thinks having had it would provide immunity likely through about the fall, i think. I don’t think you would get it right away again after having had it. But no one does know that yet. I would think we would have started hearing about reinfection happening in some places such as China if it can happen right away.
I think that we don’t know how long people are contagious. Someone I work with had a family member who was diagnosed with it and the only symptom that person has is ‘covid feet’ and feels otherwise fine. How many have it and are spreading it around. I’m sure in the future we will know so much more and most of these things that are mysteries now will be answered but that is years away.
I think effective treatments will come out more and more in the coming months, though, and maybe some will help make the risk much smaller to those who get it.