Whether the risk to the student increases or decreases depends on many factors so it’d be different for different students. However, it almost certainly increases the risk for the local community.
I think we can wrap all this up to “how much risk are you willing to take on”.
No questions staying at home and not doing anything is safer then being around others even if your wearing a mask and social distancing. The vaccines coming are NOT the magic bullet and this virus is here to stay for a few years. How we deal with it will be telling.
How much risk you are willing to take on … for yourself AND for others. It’s a pandemic, one person’s risky behavior increases risk for everyone they come in contact with. You are making decisions for yourself, roommates, cleaner, airport security, flight attendant, gas station clerk, dining hall server, shuttle driver, healthcare workers, professor, TA, policeman, girlfriend, security guard, waiter, grocery store clerk, amazon delivery guy, your family, their families and many many others.
why is it here for a few years? I really don’t believe that. I don’t understand where that info comes from. Even Fauci, very early on, said a vaccine would be available in 12-18 months. I understand that doesn’t mean that the virus is “gone” but it does change things. Schools can require kids to have the vaccine and even take rapid tests each day. Our high school is already looking into those strips.
I can do without indoor dining, concerts, big sporting events for three years. I understand that people working in those industries (and others like travel) will be hurting. But, in the case of school, we should be able to get back to it way before “a few years”.
State University of New York Chancellor Jim Malatras will visit campus early this afternoon to announce that he has directed SUNY Oneonta to develop and implement a plan to send on-campus students home and cease all in-person classes and activities for the rest of the fall semester.
@1Rubin . No question about it but it first starts with" How much risk is the individual willing to take on". I am not talking about going to parties but people here are comparing staying at home vs going to a campus. Of course going out of the home has more risk. That is all I am saying.
Greek Life at Indiana not looking too good.
@milgymfam - Overall relative risk is just that, if you take certain actions, you can expect X risk. The comments since my post illustrate much of my point. Those who feel the risk is too great are going to point to examples of “what if’s” to shoot holes in a theory. You have chosen an isolation approach for your family. That is your choice based on your risk tolerance. If your activity level is the same in the two locations, home & school, then your risk level will be similar. I am pointing out, in my case, the positive case rate in my county is higher than the respective counties the colleges are in. On top of that, both schools are doing more testing than my county, including surveillance testing to identify asymptomatic carriers. At both schools, the positive test rate is significantly lower. That perception could be skewed by demographics. But, the 15-24 y/o demo is one of the highest positive test demos in our county.
On the flip side, I know my DSs pretty well. They are not partiers, but they do miss the community of friends back at school. We asked their opinion of going back to school. We wanted to make sure they were each comfortable with the situation they were moving to. They are both glad they made the choice to go back. Even though the experience is different, they are glad to be back with their college friends.
@1NJParent - I am not certain that the numbers support your assertion, “almost certainly increases the risk for the local community.” In some locations, yes, college students have been the source of spikes. In others, Duke, Purdue and Notre Dame, if there were any spikes, they were quickly dealt with. In the case of Notre Dame, their positive test rate is significantly lower than the county they reside in. How are they a risk to the community?
Who is getting tested? People with symptoms, people who have been contact traced, or everyone regardless of exposure? Positivity rates are apples to oranges, depending on how much the county is able to test, how much it costs, how willing the asymptomatic population is willing to go out and get the back of their brain swabbed just to see.
Of course many positivity rates at colleges look good compared to the county in which they reside. Most counties aren’t testing every resident, many colleges are.
In terms of risk, mine is nearly zero (hopefully) since I’ve had it. But I do care about risk to the community, since I’ve lived it.
@usma87
While 16.6% is very high, comparing ASU vs CA is like comparing apples to oranges. Read my post #13212 (it was ND at that time but the same logic applies)
SUNY Oneonta is sending students home for the rest of the semester, but it looks like they will only send negative students back home
“We will soon ask all students who have tested negative for COVID-19 to sign up for a move-out time from Friday, Sept. 4, to Monday, Sept. 7. There will also be a process for students who wish to remain on campus to request permission to do so.”
389 since the start of the semester on Aug. 24
When do we get to pivot on this thread to talking about school in the spring? My D20’s school (on day 2 of the fall semester) just sent an email discussing revisions to the spring academic calendar. Pushing the start of classes off until Feb. 1. No determination as to whether that will be F2F or virtual.
Selectively picking a few colleges can hardly prove a point, especially it has been only a couple of weeks since students came back to the campuses. The logic for increased risk for the local communities is sound. The presence of significant number of non-locals, especially ones who are more likely to socialize, will almost surely increase the risk for everyone. Increased risk doesn’t necessarily mean a certainty of outbreaks, however.
MODERATOR’S NOTE
Now is as good a time as any. I updated the thread title.
I dunno, @homerdog. Doesn’t sound like they worry much about masks. _()_/
yeah right. What am I thinking? At some schools, life maybe doesn’t look that different. Look at all of those cases at the IU frats and sororities. I guess I’ve been following the colleges that D21 is interested in and they are all schools with very conservative plans. Seeing photos that they post show life looks pretty different than usual.
During a State College Area school board of directors meeting on Monday night, Wayne Sebastianelli — Penn State’s director of athletic medicine — made some alarming comments about the link between COVID-19 and myocarditis, particularly in Big Ten athletes. Sebastianelli said that cardiac MRI scans revealed that approximately a third of Big Ten athletes who tested positive for COVID-19 appeared to have myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle that can be fatal if left unchecked.
William & Mary dropping some sports.
At the conclusion of the 20-21 Academic Year, the following will no longer be sponsored as Division I sports: Men’s and Women’s Gymnastics; Men’s and Women’s Swimming; Men’s Indoor and Outdoor Track & Field; and Women’s Volleyball.
This is a wrenching decision. It will impact 118 student-athletes and 13 coaches. Altered, too, will be the lives of thousands of family members, former varsity letter award winners, alumni, fans, donors and supporters of these seven sport programs.
@PetraMC - there is somewhat of a circular debate. Those with low risk tolerance want frequent testing of all students. Inherent in that desire for more tests is that you will catch asymptomatic patients. That’s what everyone is afraid of - the asymptomatic patient spreading the virus to the community. When you test a broader group of people, you get a more accurate picture of how prevalent the virus is. It seems like the “test everyone” crowd then dismisses the low positivity rate as irrelevant because you are testing more people. When the testing demonstrates low risk, it is important to acknowledge that answer.
I realize my comparisons are not apples to apples in many cases. I am trying to draw some conclusions based on the data available. In the state of CA, the state website and our county website provide different results under similar labels with little or no explanation for how the number was calculated. It is aggravating.
FYI - I am sorry to hear you had to go through having this bug. Hope you are fully recovered.
@mathKids - wow, that post was over 100 pages back! I agree that they are difficult to compare. I did the best I could to take “like” numbers. Unfortunately, they are not always available.
In this case, I am not comparing a case rate per 100k to a simple positive number of cases. I did my best to determine a 7- day average of positive cases in my county in an effort to match the methodology of the Notre Dame dashboard. Yes, there are still some issues with the data. ND is doing far more surveillance testing than my county. The ND dashboard does have the ability to isolate Diagnostic and Surveillance. The Diagnostic 7 day average is 6.8%. Stanislaus county is either 12% (CDPH), 14% (StanCo) or 17% (me) depending on your source. This is about as close to apples to apples as you will probably be able to get.
My assertion still holds - I feel my son is safer at ND, or at least at no greater risk, than he would be at home. Plus, they are resuming in person classes this week.