School in the 2020-2021 Academic Year & Coronavirus (Part 1)

I would hope the CDC would start to get more granular as age is such a driver in COVID risk for complications - 34 is not exactly a young adult when you’re talking about college. Unfortunately we’re seeing quite a bit of data at some of these large schools and with thousands of cases and still no/few hospitalization and low anecdotal stories of severe illness, I don’t think kids are going to be more likely to take it seriously. We have friends with kids at Wisconsin, Kansas, Iowa and University of South Carolina, and all know classmates who tested positive, none are talking about kids getting extremely sick. It’s definitely feeding the let’s just get herd immunity belief at many of these schools.

I think schools that fear being shut down are seeing much better compliance. I know after UNC CH and NC State shut down, it put some fear in Duke students and I hear similar at Notre Dame where they went into lock down.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm

I.e. 19% not fully recovered in the best case group (18-34, no chronic medical condition, presumably including most college students). Worse for others.

One of S21’s online teachers just announced to them that she is quitting as of today. Told them as she was crying that it’s too stressful and not enough support for her to continue. So sad. Covid continues to strike in direct and non direct ways.
And, while I completely understand her reasoning and support her decision, I am also wondering what the transition will be b/c it’s an important class that is not easily transferable to another person, let alone online.
S21 just went for a run to cope during what is his “lunch” hour part of day.

Was this teacher who is quitting an adjunct?

No, a long time (35 years), full-time seasoned teacher. She had requested to teach online and had at least some (all?) of her classes online…but it was still too stressful. Son is still out running and hubby (who is home today) didn’t get all the details from him.

As a general rule, those most at risk from the virus itself are not the same group of people most affected by efforts to avoid the spread of it. Has a significant impact on the views people have of different approaches. I have talked with people with kids at T20 colleges who will graduate on time with zero debt and go on to do wonderful things who truly believe their kids are “getting screwed” by the current approach at their kids’ schools.

20% of the kids who are symptomatic, so that would be maybe 6% of those who were positive.

The data I’ve seen that most closely matches the age of college kids was posted in this thread from Purdue (literally college kids!). 85% totally asymptomatic, 15% with symptoms ranging from quite mild on up. So 20% of 15% is only 3%. I’d think a 3% risk of lingering symptoms (which may or may not even be that bad for much of that 3%) is probably not enough to scare the college aged kids into behaving differently on their campuses. I think disciplinary measures of potentially getting kicked off campus are probably a lot scarier to them.

Oberlin is doing pretty well so far. They tested all faculty/staff/students at the beginning of the semester with self-quarantine required until negative results came back. For the rest of the semester, they are doing surveillance testing of 25% of the asymptomatic campus population per week. Over the last month, there have been a total of 9 positives out of 3815 tests with a positivity rate of .24%. Most of the positives were caught in the initial entry testing. This past week there were zero positives. Sixteen students have been sent home for not following social distancing rules. About 2/3 of the student population are currently on campus and majority of classes are online.

Exactly. If you’re a student and you’ve asked 95 kids if they’ve felt sick and they all say no or just a little sick with a sore throat for two days, it’s going to be hard to mask up 100% of the time and stay far away from friends. Even the kids I know who are following the rules are getting a little tired of all of this.

I know its kind of old news, but BIG 10 returning football is a sign. One of the items cited is the Penn State article about myocarditis. The initial report given to the chancellors had to be revised (from what I have heard). The BIG 10 tried to force the remaining conferences to follow their lead. Three of the other power 5 did not cave. With a few exceptions, it looks like football can be played without spreading the virus. If a physical contact sport being possible, ask yourself why more schools are not “in person”?

I go back to the two schools I am familiar with, Notre Dame and ASU. Both have executed their plans well. The initial spike at ND led to a suspension of F2F for 2 weeks. That was part of the plan if a spike happened. It worked. They are still seeing a few cases, but for the most part, they are through the storm. At ASU, they have put their Biodesign Institute to work. They update their testing a few times per week. They have done 57,000 tests since 1 Aug. They have a total of 1610 positive cases. For a “party school” these are pretty good numbers.

I think there are a number examples of schools who have executed a strong plan and seen effective results. My hope is all schools will look at the successful programs and figure out how to make it work for them. Which attitude do you have? Are you “trying to make it work” or are you like Cal State system and waiting for it to go away?

I could be wrong but I think the state of CA had some ruling that kept a lot of schools from opening? 5Cs closed. Santa Clara closed, LMU closed. CSUs closed. Something was going on out there.

As for other schools that aren’t “trying”, many of those feel that the risks aren’t worth it. Some don’t have enough space to have all kids on campus and enough space for quarantine. Some had pressure from their town to not have kids back to campus. Harvard, MIT, Bowdoin and others decided early to not have everyone back but still have serious testing plans for those who are on campus. They aren’t “waiting for it to go away” but made plans best for their specific situations and believe they are in the best interest of their students.

some of it is the location. The DC mayor pretty much rejected the plans from GW/GT/AU or gave them requirements that would be next to impossible to meet. DC did not want most of the college kids in town.

@homerdog - I agree that schools have done the best with the resources they have available. I’m in the camp of ‘try to make it work’ or ‘find a way to live with COVID’. ASU is the counter to your examples. They have found a way because their leadership is dedicated to finding a way to safely return to school. They are a state school, so they do not have deep pockets like a ND, or HYP. Yet, they are making it work. Students have been back for over a month and no big spike. I just feel like everyone is still relying on models that have been wrong more than right when there are examples of reality that can be followed.

As for CA schools, I don’t remember CDPH saying school cannot return in the Spring, yet the CSU system has already announced they will be online next semester too.

They have set thresholds for k-12 that must be met from a positive case rate in your county. I am not sure that the same rule applies to the CSU and UC campuses. I don’t have kids in either, so I am not fully up-to-speed on that.

but don’t you think there’s no big spike because they aren’t catching asymptomatic cases? I don’t know if that’s ok or not but schools that don’t test everyone all of the time must think it’s ok because they’re rules are for masks and distancing and think those two things will keep the virus from spreading if someone is asymptomatic. That’s a different approach than the schools that are testing a lot.

@homerdog - They have tested almost 60,000 students! I think that’s more than sufficient. We have different risk thresholds. I totally disagree with the “test everyone” mentality when 97% of the tests will be negative (based on ASU numbers 1610 positive out of 57,629 tests).

I keep hearing that sending the students home will just spread the virus in more communities, but won’t that happen at the end of the semester anyway?

I’m starting to think we will see a big spike in December when the students return home and catch up with friends.

Yeah I don’t get how the end of the semester is going to work. Are no college kids going to celebrate Thanksgiving? They’ll all be in their bedrooms? I think people are going to stop trying. I’m not considering having S19 sequester for 10 days. I haven’t thought about it too much. Maybe I’ll have him test before he comes home and then again when he comes home? That’s still not perfect. I’m guessing most people aren’t even going to even think about it at all.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/18/canada-coronavirus-saliva-test-swirl-gargle-spit-children

Authorities in Canada have unveiled a new non-invasive coronavirus test which avoids the need for intrusive nasal swabs, in a development which they hope will making testing easier and more accessible for students as they return to schools, writes Leyland Cecco in Toronto.

The new testing method, unveiled Thursday, is a significant departure from the standard – and often painful – nasopharyngeal swab which remains the most common method of detecting Covid-19.

Instead, children in the western province of British Columbia will have the chance to “swirl, gargle and spit” a non-invasive saline solution – the one of the first tests of its kind in the world.

Dr Bonnie Henry, British Columbia’s top doctor, told reporters:

Unlike the nasopharyngeal swab this is a new saline gargle where you put a little bit of normal saline water in your mouth, you swish it around a little bit – and you spit it into a little tube. And that’s an easier way to collect it for young people.

Most schools moved their calendar to send kids home for Thanksgiving and not return until January. Finals are either before or after Thanksgiving, but will be done remotely if they’re after.