@PetraMC and @shuttlebus - I contend that once a school has seen its spike, that it is the outside community that infects off campus students and bring it back to the school. How else do you explain after the Notre Dame spike, there has been only sporadic cases? A large percentage of ND students live on campus. They have many isolation type policies in place (reduced gathering size, no visiting other dorms). I am also not aware with a corresponding spike in cases in August or September in the South Bend area, further supporting the hypothesis that it may be the community infecting the school, not the school spreading it to the community.
A similar trend can be seen in Phoenix. ASU has tested roughly 80,000 students and staff with very low positive rate. This is a campus where a large percentage of students live off campus. If you recall, they had a spike in Phoenix in early July. Instead of a second spike in August when the campus moved back in, the case rate continued to drop.
So, two more cases that I feel don’t support the theory that schools pose a risk to the communities that they are in. I know the larger university spikes will likely paint a different story. Like many situations with this pandemic, answers are elusive and theories are plentiful.
@usma87 I contend that it doesn’t matter who is patient zero. It makes no difference who is at FAULT, town or gown, I’m not sure why that comes up again and again. It’s the campus density that’s the issue, and the potential for it to quickly spread unnoticed. I’m not talking about schools that test a lot or have strict protocols since they are better equipped to stamp it out. As I’ve said, my alma mater is doing a terrible job at this. It’s a covid incubator.
Good for your particular kids’ schools, but there are lots of schools not doing anywhere near that level of testing and enforcement.
A school can be doing a decent job and most can be following the rules but someone gets it from a local waiter, goes to a get-together, and bang–student cluster. Someone from that cluster works their off-campus job and gives it to someone with an elderly mother and bang, its back in the community. They think that’s basically what happened at a friend’s mother’s assisted living community. The state university nearby is only testing symptomatic students and football players. There are outbreaks that go from college to community to college.
So maybe “spills over” is the wrong phrase. It can drip in, grow exponentially, and spill out.
Son will return home by plane from school for Thanksgiving and December (classes will not start again until mid-January), and he will likely take a Covid-19 test before he departs campus. Is there a consensus that he will need a 14-day quarantine when he arrives at home, even if he has a negative Covid-19 test result on campus before departure? Currently campus positive rates show < 1% positive.
I was thinking of Chapel Hill. Have you seen any spring plans for them? I would think they would reopen and focus on the successful results of your D’s school with the wastewater testing and hybrid format to reduce density.
@JimmyWest personally if your state doesn’t require it, I wouldn’t make him quarantine. If he is coming from a low positivity rate, negative when he leaves, masks and distances in the airport, etc. (I hear you should turn the air nozzle on high overhead in the plane), then I feel like his chances of having it upon arrival aren’t much different than say you having gone to work or the store and returning to your home. Pretty sure I’ve seen that airplanes haven’t been a known source of spread.
That’s just me though, others would probably say different.
He could catch the virus on the airplane or otherwise after a test that eventually shows negative.
He could catch the virus immediately before the test, but not long enough for the viral load to show on the test yet.
Given the problems with testing, everyone who wants neither to give nor receive the virus should treat themselves and everyone else as a silent contagious carrier and act accordingly (avoid enclosed shared spaces, keep distance, avoid stationary activity with longer term exposure to the same other people, wear mask when going into enclosed shared spaces or where it is difficult to keep distance).
You will get every opinion under the sun here. But, I say great if he gets a test before he leaves but if he were in a place where he could not, my advice would be the same. He is coming from a low rate environment. Travel on a plane has been reported very safe (safer than sitting for the same amount of time in a restaurant) so, if there is no major concern at home (at risk people) I would continue on without a quarantine if he arrives symptom free. His chances of exposure are about the same during any trip he makes out of the home in his time at home.
@User2987456 “Travel on a plane has been reported very safe (safer than sitting for the same amount of time in a restaurant) so, if there is no major concern at home (at risk people) I would continue on without a quarantine if he arrives symptom free. His chances of exposure are about the same during any trip he makes out of the home in his time at home”
I think this comment about air travel safer than eating in a restaurant is a little misleading. If you have ever done air travel, there is a lot of times where you are in close proximity to many other travelers, whether its waiting to go through security, waiting in line to board your flight, or sitting next to strangers for possibly 5 hours or more.
Contrast that with dining in a restaurant. At least where I live, there is no indoor dining, it’s all outdoors (open air), with tables separated apart more than normal, many with partitions. The servers all wear masks, and some have face shields on top of that. And remember, no one is eating in a restaurant for 5+ hours.
In addition, we still do not know how many people get CV-19 from surfaces, something that makes air travel particularly troublesome.
Lastly, some would disagree with you that air travel is “very safe”. According to MIT: “Even with appropriate precautions, a relatively short domestic flight still carries moderate risks and should not be undertaken lightly.”
I wouldn’t do so, personally. I would try to evaluate the probability that where he is coming from is any worse than where you are. If it’s about the same, there is no reason to think that it is any worse than someone from your own community coming over. If things are significantly worse by then and he comes from a raging hot spot then you probably want to at least make him wear masks and keep his distance a bit.
Are any colleges using coaches to transport kids home?
It might not be practical for one with large geographic diversity. But if there is a campus where a lot of the students come from a few keys areas then a coach would bubble people from point A to point B better than public transport would.
It would seem that colleges that have ED are starting to push back the application deadline for a few weeks.
Are you seeing the same? Is this because they did not get as many applications as expected yet or want to give students enough time to get ACT/SAT tests completed and scores back? Other reasons?
I’m not offering advice! But, FWIW, I’ve been traveling by commuter rail between NYC and CT quite a bit since the lock-downs eased over the summer. And, as a courtesy to my close friends, I try to self-quarantine for 72 hours before socializing with them. Emphasis on try (if the fridge is empty, I may have to run out for food.) I also understand that it’s different when the traveler is a member of your household.
I’m sure it’s app numbers and data that they’re getting about the number who planned to enroll ED. Duke for example takes half their class ED, so it’s extremely important to them to have a large pool of quality applicants.
@suzyQ7 NC State and ECU are inviting all students back to campus, with all dorm rooms being singles. UNC has not officially stated, but it seems to be implied they are doing the same thing.
Of course schools want students to apply ED this year. And of course they are extending deadlines because they either aren’t seeing the numbers they usually see by now or are worried that the ED apps aren’t coming. But, how can they in good conscious, expect as many kids as usual apply ED? Kids couldn’t visit and want to wait to see how colleges do with the virus. 2021ers need more time.
D21 has received emails from almost all of the schools on her list telling her the upside of ED and hoping she will apply for that decision date. Some are super pushy.
I get the feeling that upper income students are still planning to use ED, but lower income, minorities, and students on the other side of the country are not.
@AlwaysMoving - maybe. But I know several who are not applying ED as they had initially planned to do bc of COVID and so many unknown factors as a result.
@AlwaysMoving I think that many upper-income students won’t use it either, because for upper-income students, tours are often a major factor in the decision, and they won’t have the opportunity to tour campus.
Yep, they pushed it back to November 16th (formerly November 1st). ED acceptance rates will be measurably higher this year if they plan on taking the same number of applicants in ED as in the past.
@socaldad2002 and @AlwaysMoving - I think a number of selective (not the HYP ivies) are going to have some issues. Throwing COVID into it, it will depend on your perspective as to how ‘attractive’ a school might be. Notre Dame has F2F classes. That may or may not be a ‘plus’ for an applicant. How desperate will some of these high MSRP, selective schools be to get new students? If you have only had virtual classes this Fall, what is the draw? Again, for some it will be ok, for others, they will want more of the ND experience.
If I had a Senior this year, I would lean to the CC and transfer approach. Save your money by paying less for the general ed requirements.