The dis-inflation is in stock options, fewer choices for a start date (the days of a kid accepting an offer in December 2022 and asking for a December 2023 start date so they can head off to Thailand for a few months after graduation are likely behind us for now), and relocation packages (for jobs that require in-office) that only include one move, not two (i.e. the company will pay to move the contents of your dorm or apartment to your new place, but not ALSO pay to move stuff from your parents home AND a storage locker).
As mentioned in the other thread, I think the decline is often overstated. For example, the new BLS report for Nov 22 shows an 8% increase in computer/software employment over the previous year. The most recent tech unemployment rate estimates I have seen are a low ~2%
(oct/nov 2022). The few 2022 post grad reports I have seen show an increase in median salary over previous year (unadjusted for inflation) and few unemployed. NACE, BLS and other groups estimate notable job growth in 2023, in their most recent report .
That said, there are a good number of specific companies that are in more dire situations. For example, Facebook stock has dropped~70% over last year. Facebook membership is no longer increasing and may be decreasing. Advertising is suffering with the new Apple privacy changes. Facebookâs emphasis on Metaverse seems like it may be a losing bet. Facebook has laid off >10,000 employees (a significant portion of total), and there have been cost cutting measures, including freezing new hiring. Some media outlets have called the situation a âdeath spiral.â
I agree that things at Facebook do not sound promising, but I donât think this is a good representation of tech as a whole. Many other tech companies are in a very different situation from Facebook. Many are enthusiastically hiring, some more so than other recent years. Tech encompasses a wide variety of different companies and positions, which show different patterns.
Itâs certainly possible that things will be very different in 2023. Tech and related economic conditions can change rapidly. It is difficult to say much about the future with certainty. There are some indicators of possible general challenges, which could be a short blip or an extended recession. There are also some indicators of economic improvements and future prosperity.
However, on these forums, âemployment in computingâ often seems to be equated to âemployment at one of a small number of well known computing companiesâ, of which Facebook is one of. So Facebook is seen as representative, regardless of whether it actually is.
Facebook isnât tech-- but companies like Lyft, DoorDash, the aforementioned Twitter, Oracle, Netflix, Shopify, Amazon, Gofundme- have all laid off enough employees in the last few weeks to trigger questions about equity, transparency, etc. in how they managed their processes.
In the popular imagination, the people who work at these companies are 25 and single. Reality is that many of them are over 55, some were let go while they were on maternity leave (which always raises eyebrows), and in some cases, the companyâs layoffs were so shoddy that employees discovered theyâd been let go when they tried to log on to their email (and got a security breach notice).
I am not as optimistic as most of you. Iâve been recruiting since the late 1980âs so Iâve seen the various booms and busts and companies typically over-correct. The John Deereâs and Siemenâs and Bank of Americaâs and Monsantos of the world over-correct as much as the flashier companies. And thatâs when it starts to really hurt- itâs not just 25 year old whiz kids getting made redundant-- itâs homeowners in Peoria and Cincinnati and Jacksonville.
Perhaps Facebook is more accurately described as âmediaâ than âtechâ. However, Facebook is commonly thought of as tech and commonly labeled as such. For example, the first sentence of Facebookâs Wikipedia page labels the company as a âmultinational technology conglomerate.â Regardless of labels, itâs a well known company for software engineering hires that is regularly mentioned on this forum for hiring new CS grads.
Different companies all show their unique patterns. The companies with notable layoffs generally have company-specific problems that have been present for quite some time, rather than just a change in the past few weeks.
For example, continuing with the FAANG companies, Netflixâs stock dropped by ~75% over the 6 month period from late 2021 to mid 2022. The drop related to a number of factors including a large decline in number of subscribers/users and questions about future profitability of the company. I suspect the loss of subscribers largely relates to a combination of successful competition and people getting out more with COVID in control. The first round of lay offs and cost cutting measures occurred at this time in mid 2022. Netflix also had freezes of new hires.
Since then Netflix has gradually been crawling out of the hole and has resumed hiring new employees. I am not aware of any new lay offs since June. For the first time in nearly a year, Netflix announced an increase in number of subscribers in their fall 2022 report. Net profit was down, but Netflix is encouraging people not to focus on that part. The market tends to agree, with a gradually increasing stock prices since the mid 2022 lows. All 2022 layoffs only amount to ~3% of employees or ~450 total⊠not as severe as Facebook. Netflix is in a largely different situation from Facebook for largely different reasons.
I could continue with more detail about the other companies you listed, but my point is that different companies are in different situations, rather than a single tech/media monolith. Some have laid off a portion of employees or have frozen hiring. Others have no reported lay offs and have increased hiring. When there are noteworthy lay offs, there are usually severe underlying issues that are specific to the particular company.
Iâm not interested in the party game of âwho laid off 14% but they deserved itâ. We could all analyze the most recent waves and come up with reasons that make perfect sense- rising interest rates, energy costs in Europe exploding, continued uncertainty in Ukraine. They all make sense. We live in an interconnected world.
But the question is will hiring for new grads be as robust in June 2023 as it has been for the last several years, and the tea bags suggest that it wonât be. Coinbase, Robinhood, ALL the crypto companies, Stripe,⊠all of these had good and legitimate reasons to cut back. But the âstodgyâ companies that make up the Fortune 500 (railroad and intermodal shipping, steel production, Agricultural processing-- look very closely at whatâs happening in the rest of the labor market when they make their own projections and develop their own hiring targets. And the notion that itâs likely going to be easier to fill some hard to find roles makes these companies less reluctant to cut.
I donât predict the labor markets- and kudos to you for trying. I just respond to whatâs out there.
Not six figute jobs but Iâd say the May 23 market will be robust. My son has already talked to 20 employers. Has two offers. In the market maybe getting more.
One company (Fortune 500) called him an hour after his first interview and offered. Itâs crazy. He canât keep up. He applied to a lot thinking it would slow down. Now his problem is balancing the schedule. Just too many.
These are not 6 figure jobs but Iâm responding to the statement of will hiring for new grads be as robust. His two offers are $75k and $72k
My understanding from kids who recently started at Facebook and lost their jobs, is that they laid off the entire incoming Boot camp class this summer and rescinded all offers for grads who had not yet started.
Thatâs not what other tech companies have done and is likely to permanently damage Facebookâs brand in terms of college recruiting.
I mentioned this earlier, but itâs worth repeating. In a period of 2 weeks, our son, 3.5 YOE, was recruited for 3 FAANG positions, and another at a well known hardware company. After several days, two recruiters reached back out and told him they had to freeze hiring. He ended up with one of the FAANG positions and a very generous, comprehensive package. The point is though that he wasnât a generic applicant. They reached out to him and then had to shut down the process.
One of his roommates was laid off. He has 4.0 YOE and a great track record in his industry. Itâs a bit slow going finding a new position.
Their other roommate advises new SE grads from a well known undergraduate program. His words were âitâs tough out there right now.â
Iâm with @blossom on this. At least anecdotally, things seem to be compressing a bit. That doesnât mean no one is hiring, or that wages wonât be solid. The pace seems to be slowed though.
Many of the offers quoted at the beginning of this thread which were 6 digits were total compensation (not just salary). They include stock in some form. Well that stock is most likely not worth as much today and may have fallen enough to make the total compensation now lower than 6 digits.
Base pay for those positions is well into six digits but RSU prices drop significantly lowered total compensation for those who started one year ago or didnât sell.
