<p>I spent some time looking around at the financial markets this weekend
and I meant to include a few findings with the update post.</p>
<p>ZeroHedge has the article: The Economic Death Spiral Has Been
Triggered and it goes into the long-term causes of our current
problems. The desire to have a good economy in the short run has
resulted in many long-term problems and we’re near a point when the
methods that worked in the past may no longer work or work well.</p>
<p>[Guest</a> Post: The Economic Death Spiral Has Been Triggered | zero hedge](<a href=“404 | ZeroHedge”>Zerohedge)</p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether the financial engineering from the
world’s central bankers can piece things back together again.
I had a look at a bunch of charts and my feeling is that we are
in a trading range with a short-term to mid-term negative bias.
It suggests a lot of uncertainty about the rest of the year.</p>
<p>New first-time unemployment claims were above 400K for the entire
month of May and it’s hard to see how we’re going to have a strong
recovery in employment terms with numbers at that level. We need that
number well under 400K to get the ball rolling.</p>
<p>Corporations are flush with cash but are not spending it, giving it
back to shareholders or hiring for expansion. They are sitting on
cash hoards.</p>
<p>WSJ: What Will It Take for Companies to Unlock Their Cash Hoards?</p>
<p>[The</a> Intelligent Investor: Why Won’t Companies Unlock Their Cash Hoards? - WSJ.com](<a href=“The Intelligent Investor: Why Won't Companies Unlock Their Cash Hoards? - WSJ”>The Intelligent Investor: Why Won't Companies Unlock Their Cash Hoards? - WSJ)</p>
<p>“In the first quarter, the five companies with the greatest cash
hoardsMicrosoft, Cisco Systems, Google, Apple and Johnson &
Johnsonadded $15 billion in cash and marketable securities to their
balance sheets. Microsoft alone packed away roughly $9 billion, or
$100 million a day. All told, the companies in the Standard & Poor’s
500-stock index are sitting on more than $960 billion in cash, a
record.”</p>
<p>Commodity prices shot up recently before dropping back down. Oil went
up to the low teens but is recently trading around $100/barrel. I
think that that’s a level that we’re going to have to get comfortable
with. There’s a current floor on oil due to the unrest in the Middle
East. The unrest has resulted in a surge of government spending by
Saudi Arabia and they will need a decent amount of money from their
oil sales to pay for their spending.</p>
<p>[Arab</a> oil faces higher ?break-even? price - MarketWatch](<a href=“http://www.marketwatch.com/story/arab-oil-faces-higher-break-even-price-2011-05-29]Arab”>Arab oil faces higher ‘break-even’ price - MarketWatch)</p>
<p>The May employment report is this Friday and traders are bracing for
numbers that aren’t so good but one bright spot may come from
McDonalds. McDonalds had a huge hiring push recently that should
result in an estimated 25K to 30K gain. Flooding in the Southeast, of
course, probably dropped employment numbers. There should be job gains
from rebuilding efforts down the road for both areas affected by
flooding and tornadoes.</p>
<p>[May</a> payrolls report really about McJobs Economic Preview - MarketWatch](<a href=“http://www.marketwatch.com/story/may-payrolls-report-really-about-mcjobs-2011-05-29]May”>May payrolls report really about McJobs - MarketWatch)</p>
<p>Texas and some surrounding states may see better economic times from
shale oil. The projections on oil output are quite remarkable with the
potential to greatly increase US oil output within ten years. The catch
is that the method used to recover the oil is environmentally hazardous.
It’s called fracking and is being used to recover natural gas but has
left behind contaminated groundwater. It appears that there are many
companies and workers that are willing to take those risks.</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/28/business/energy-environment/28shale.html[/url]”>http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/28/business/energy-environment/28shale.html</a></p>
<p>Germany announced plans to shut down their nuclear plants over the
next decade. Germany relies on nuclear to provide 30% of their power
needs. Other countries are reviewing their use of nuclear power.
This may increase the demand for fossil fuels from these industrial
countries.</p>
<p>[Germany</a> to shut down nuclear plants - MarketWatch](<a href=“http://www.marketwatch.com/story/germany-to-shut-down-nuclear-plants-2011-05-30]Germany”>Germany to shut down nuclear plants - MarketWatch)</p>
<p>Tepco has indicated that it will take them at least nine months to
get the reactors at ***ushima under control (sorry I don’t have a link).
Japan probably doesn’t need the power as they struggle to rebuild right
now but they will at some point in the future and that could also mean
more demand for fossil fuels.</p>
<p>QE2:</p>
<p>QE2 is the Fed’s second Quantitative Easing - think of it as the Fed
pumping huge amounts of money into the economy (simplistic view). It
is coming to an end at the end of June. We had the end of the world
with Harold Camping that came and passed but will the world really end
on June 30? Bankers have lots of money; companies have lots of money
so what’s the problem? Jobs. Getting interest rates into the basement
isn’t going to get people buying houses unless they can afford to make
the mortgage payment and have the confidence that their economic
outlook is going to be stable in the five-to-ten year range. That’s
not happening right now (thus, this thread). QE2 has been a prop and a
help to robust corporate earnings. Corporate earnings should continue
to do well for a while, maybe even a long while, but traders like to
look out six months in advance and question if corporate profits can
continue in the face of a deteriorating jobs environment. So QE2 is
coming to an end and traders are wondering if it’s time to dump and go
short.</p>
<p>Of course, the Fed could simply announce QE3. I suspect that such an
announcement would create a huge Wall St party; one as big as the one
that QE2 generated. We don’t really know what the Fed will do but the
Fed does tend to err on the easy side which is why I’ve been in
precious metals, energy companies, precious metals miners and foreign
currencies for the last decade.</p>
<p>It looks to be a binary trade.</p>
<p>What would be the effect on the labor markets of QE3? I think that it
would result in a boost in hiring - we had several hiring boosts with
QE2. If we don’t get QE3? I don’t feel that the recovery in company
earnings will carry the economy unless there is robust hiring and I
don’t see robust hiring without QE3. Companies seem to feel a huge
amount of uncertainty (hard to blame them). I am happy that many
companies are hiring but it appears that those are for immediate needs
or needs where the profit potential is quite good or needs where
companies have to respond to competitive threats. If you can get into
those areas: good for you.</p>
<hr>
<p>Those are my weekend thoughts. We used to have nice conversations on
economics in the other forum but that’s gone so this is as good a place
as any to put this stuff. If you have other thoughts, I’m always open
to getting other opinions or ideas.</p>
<p>I have some more financial stuff to read and will hopefully get the kids
started on thinking about the financial stuff today.</p>