@politeperson: you have pretty much transcribed my thoughts about potential and progression. 1:56 is indeed his goal for senior year and I think entirely reasonable. I don’t think he’s ever run above 40 miles per week and never trained for more than a couple of months during the year. This summer and coming year his training and ambition will ramp up so we’ll see what happens. He does compete well and is very tough in the last 100m when everybody feels like they’re running through cement. He closed one race in a 57 last 400m.
Again, I have no illusions that his current times will be impressive to a coach looking at national or even our state rankings. In terms of admissions, we are not pinning hopes on this kid as “track recruit.” Instead, we’re thinking “well-rounded candidate with potential to contribute to track team.” (fwiw, he also plays an instrument pretty well and has an academic interest in math, esp. the theoretical side, and takes advanced classes at our state flagship university). Mostly I am wondering 1. if any coach will take interest so that track rises above “garden variety EC” in admissions and 2. what programs in his target list may provide a welcoming team and help this kid develop into a low 1:50 runner by the end of college. I also could see him becoming a miler although at the moment he is stronger at the speed end of the spectrum and his relative performance is weaker in longer events. Luckily, the endurance part is more amenable to work.
Thanks everybody for feedback. Every person who responded has provided something useful.