I appreciate the conversation and I do think that the OP is lurking and reading responses - either not logged in OR the OP created a new account for the question. I suspect the OP has a regular CC account that they use and they don’t want to “out” themselves now that they realize what full pay at a dream school really means. Those earlier posts (not making their child settle, we did it right so our child can have the dream) come back to haunt people once the reality sets in.
Lots of people feel that they worked hard and they have prepared for the cost of college by amassing a large college fund. There is the undertone of “we did so why can’t you” on the forums of parents who consistently bring up giving their child the dream and other people making their children “settle” as a result of not saving. Things have increased at such a rate that those large college funds look meager compared to the actual cost of attendance at these schools - Duke at $80,000/yr X 4 is staggering. Students who can get into Duke ED are competitive at schools that will give great merit. Students who will thrive at Duke will thrive at State U (insert ANY State). What does Duke offer for $320,000 that ambitious, driven, supported students can’t achieve at other schools that fit in the budget? The OP indicated that they have saved and they have a college fund (30K-40K/year = $120,000-$160,000 set aside for school) with some more wiggle room out of current income. That is an amazing amount that will provide their child with a wonderful education and thousands of schools. How long did it take to save that amount? Typically seeded with a bonus or inheritance and a dozen or more years of aggressive saving to get to that level with the value of time to compound those savings. Now imagine doubling that amount in just 4 years, no compounding while continuing to eat, live, drive, and save for #2. If that were possible, the OP would have that amount saved already. Just not possible.
The OP made assumptions that Duke would come close to their budget and they would be able to make up that shortfall out of current income and belt tightening. This is not feasible. The OP has 2nd child to consider and costs are rising. The OP has figured out that they will not be able to fund second child to the same dream rate and is wondering how in the world they are going to get #1 through Duke. The inequality of this situation can rip families apart. A lot can happen in 4 years; illness, job loss, downsizing of job, costly relocations, large unexpected home expenses, an extra semester or year, to name a few. Loans that require 10 years to pay back are also a disaster at our ages - imagine another mortgage payment but on a 10 year instead of 15/30 year term. That dream school starts to look like a nightmare. Bragging rights for a bumper sticker or providing an 18 year old their “dream” is not worth the costs.