It does matter, but clearly, your daughter meets the rigor and standardized test score requirements for just about any school, plus she’s got second semester of junior year to improve grades even further, and make relationships with faculty that will get her the letters that she needs. Now it’s all about the “holistic” elements - in other words, portraying herself as what the college is looking for. Does she have particularly high achievement in an EC that they want? Is it a school that would prefer a full-pay applicant, vs one who needs fin aid, and is there a way to convey that to her advantage? Does she want a boutique major that they have, with a past demonstrated interest in that field, or at least a good story for it (and of course she can major in whatever she wants, once she’s in). Or do you anticipate that she will need to chase merit money, at a second or third tier college? Her stats could get her merit money at less competitive schools looking to improve their statistics.
None of the schools that you mentioned are out of her range, if she can make a good case for them. The best way to make a case for Tufts is to apply ED (they’re very concerned about their yield figures, don’t want to be seen as a safety school for the Ivies).
I think it’s too early to be compiling and narrowing, unless you’re planning on going on an April 2022 “Grand Tour” of the colleges, and hence want to narrow your list so that you can plan visits. Our approach has been to have our kids make applications based upon interests, finances, academics, geography, what info we could glean online, and then if they had multiple acceptable options after acceptances, go tour then. But I know that is SO 1970’s. I’ve been on ridiculous college tour trips with friends where they were taking their kids to tour schools that they were NEVER going to get into, and even if they did, there was no way that the family would qualify for enough aid, or had enough resources for the kid to attend, even if they did get in. I watched their intelligent but naive 17 yr old kid asking questions like, “Is there a curfew?”, when everyone knows that the only place you’re going to find that is a fundamentalist religious college, certainly not at a T20 school! Honestly, it was a total waste of time, and raised unrealistic expectations. Of course kid wound up at the State U (and was happy there). If your family falls into the middle to upper middle class demographic, even with your daughter’s lovely record, the most likely combination of affordability and good education is going to be your flagship state U (or a nearby one with a reciprocal tuition agreement), so please don’t forget to take a close look at those options.