Suddenly Many Colleges are Elite-Boston Globe article

Parents Forum
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so, once the demographic boom subsides say in 10 or so years (just guessing, haven't read much about numbers predictions lately), will the new elites stay elite or will their new-found prestige recede along with the number of applicants?

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<p>I think that ten years from now, we will see extreme financial pressures on colleges and a signficant number of business failures.</p>

<p>It's not so much a decline in total applications, but rather a demographic sea change with the applicant pool shifting to the south and southwest and becoming signficantly more Latino (and Asian American).</p>

<p>The increasing use of "merit" discounting to compete for high stat white students who can pay $20,000 or $30,000 a year will put colleges in a financial bind, especially as the super-endowment schools pull the rug out from under price competition by lowering their prices across the board (Princeton's no loan policy is the tip of the iceburg).</p>

<p>The last time there was major demographic challenge (post baby-boom), colleges soften the blow by accepting women for the first time. There's no "softening the blow" mechanism available when the post echo boom pressures hit.</p>

<p>The well-endowed schools are positioning themselves for the future by investing heavily in diversity -- student body, faculty, support staff, etc. They will offer an attractive package to a more diverse customer base 20 years down the road. But, all of that costs money. So many schools slightly down the line are investing their money in merit discounts to attract customers from a shrinking pool (wealthy white students). They are banking on the increased cachet that accrues from being a destination for wealthy white students. It's a proven formula as seen by the success of Stanford, Emory, Duke, and many others over the last century. However, it may prove to be a bit of a pyramid scheme for the latecomers, with too many schools chasing too few students with dollars.</p>

<p>I think the smart schools are trying to define a specific brand identity for themselves. Whether it's the co-op thing at Northeastern or the "international focus" at Gettysburg.</p>

<p>The thing that must scare colleges to death is the theory that the super-endowment schools will go tuition-free or even pay students to attend (the graduate school model). The sticker prices of the super-endowment schools artificially props up the market across the board, which is why the price competition is disguised as merit aid. You already see this reversal if you look at average net price. For example, Smith and Haverford charge more, on average, than Williams or Swarthmore. Muhlenberg charges more than Oberlin or Grinnell. The whole world gets turned upside down when Princeton goes tuition free. The schools should enjoy the gravy-days while they can.</p>

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<p>ID- after the boom is over colleges will market to retirees. Some already do.</p>

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<p>Did you guys read the whole article?</p>

<p>"Relief from the population boom of high school students is not expected anytime soon. The number of graduating high school seniors nationwide will peak at 3.3 million in 2011, but demographers predict that the size of graduating classes after that will decrease only slightly."</p>

<p>The graduating class sizes will decrease only slightly. I don't see the percentage of people realizing a college education is a necessity dropping any time in the future, so I don't think there will be too many colleges with a lot of empty seats. Admissions standards at some "elite" colleges may slip, but I suspect more and more people will chose to go to college so there will always be someone to fill a class.</p>

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<p>I agree wtih Lafalum. Even with a dip in the echo boom, pressures will increase from additional motivation, need, & qualification to attend college, as well as the ever-increasing globalization which has very much affected enrollments of international students recently.</p>

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<p>
[quote]
Did you guys read the whole article?</p>

<p>"Relief from the population boom of high school students is not expected anytime soon. The number of graduating high school seniors nationwide will peak at 3.3 million in 2011, but demographers predict that the size of graduating classes after that will decrease only slightly."

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<p>Yes. But, unlike the Globe reporter, some of us have actually looked at the underlying demographic shifts. Go to this page at the College Board site:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.collegeboard.com/highered/res/hel/hel.html#%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.collegeboard.com/highered/res/hel/hel.html#&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>Go down to "Trends in the Number of High School Graduates" and click the link for the first chart. From that chart, click through the entire series of charts, which give projected high school graduates by region and ethnicity.</p>

<p>As you can see, the absolute number of white graduates declines substantially over the next ten years in New England and the Middle States and significantly in the Midwest and West. There is no region of the country where the absolute number of white high school graduates will increase over the next ten years.</p>

<p>The total high school graduate number is interesting, but not as instructive as the details. The growth is heavily focused in the South, Southwest, and West and, in all regions of the country, is driven by rapid increases in Latino and Asian American high school graduates.</p>

<p>This is a sobering demographic challenge for private schools that have marketed to, and priced their product for, affluent white students, especially since the elite college market has always been driven by the action in New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. A private college in New England or the Mid-Atlantic region that is currently 75+% white and 60+% full-fare has to be very concerned about these demographic changes. Quite simply, their customer base is shrinking and they are not well-positioned to capitalize on the growth in other market sectors. See why colleges are falling all over themselves to promote "diversity"?</p>

<p>59% of the acceptance letters this year at my daughter's Mid-Atlantic college (Swarthmore) went to non-white US students and Internationals. 49% of the letters at a similar New England college (Williams) went to non-white US and internationals. Put those numbers in the context of who these schools sold their product to for the last century. It's a breathtaking market repositioning. Oh, and by the way, the traditional white customers who are displaced at these, and other schools, are fueling the increased selectivity down the food chain, but that is a short-lived demographic effect as the growth in white applicants ends after next year.</p>

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<p>
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...as well as the ever-increasing globalization which has very much affected enrollments of international students recently.

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<p>The problem is that enrolling international students is expensive. Every elite college I've looked at spends more per student in tuition discounts for international students than for domestic students. Diversity costs money, whether it is US diversity or international diversity.</p>

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<p>Here's another recent story about the trends at the national level. The bottom line is that the number of students attending college will continue to increase, even as the raw number of HS grads declines slightly. </p>

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The U.S. Education Department's National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reports that the number of high school seniors will peak at 3.3 million in 2011 and will decline only slightly to 3.2 million by 2016. Most educators predict that the percentage of those students going on to higher education, now about 67 percent, will increase and make the application process even more stressful. Undergraduate enrollment is expected to increase from 15.2 million this year to 16.6 million in 2015, NCES reports.

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<p><a href="http://www.aacrao.org/transcript/index.cfm?fuseaction=show_view&doc_id=3526%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.aacrao.org/transcript/index.cfm?fuseaction=show_view&doc_id=3526&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

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<p>interesteddad-- very insightful analysis...thank you. So, even though the numbers in general are predicted to increase through 2015 as the above post reports, the devil is in the details so to speak on how any one institution should or could adapt to the regional and socioeconomic trends that underlie this general increase. And the NE schools in particular have much potentially to lose, as the amount of full-fare, near-by white students will be declining, necessitating a strategic shift to other student "market segments." Southern or Western full-fare substitutes would be wonderful, as well as Hispanic students assuming subsidies were available.......hence your points are well taken that branding becomes important to reach these new market segments and the riches of strong endowment can help establish (through tuition discounts) a market base for the growing populations of underrepresented minorities. Good to be well known & rich! (& if not both, at least one of those two.) Interesting stuff...thanks again.</p>

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<p>The changes interesteddad are talking about could be foreshadowed by the responses in New England and the Mid-Atlantic states to the "baby bust" of the 70s and 80s. Rural liberal arts colleges below the very top have sought to beef up applications by becoming SAT optional, going coed, adopting more relaxed distribution requirements, etc. These same colleges seem to be less well known and maybe less appealing to the portion of the demographic slated to grow- Hispanics and Asians.</p>

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<p>Am I the only one who thinks that 'elite' and 'selective' are two completely different words?
I think a lot goes into making a top college 'top', and selectivity isn't really a valid criteria. It's more about other factors (class size, campus facilities, professor quality) which directly correlate to lower acceptance rates....</p>

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<p>Papa:</p>

<p>There's one additional demographic factor. Keep in mind that the elite northeast and mid-atlantic schools were traditionally definied by a feeder system that went from suburban DC/Batimore/Phila/NY/Boston to private prep school to elite northeast college. Sure, they rounded out their numbers with some affluent public school kids, but the product was positioned to sell to the private prep school track.</p>

<p>Note that the percentage of private high school grads is highest in NE/Mid-Atlantic and declines as you move South and West. Thus, not only is the driving force in the customer base moving away from the northeast/mid-atlantic, the type of high school within that customer base is also changing.</p>

<p>I think that colleges with high levels of diversity today will probably fair pretty well because they learned a hard lesson in the early days of diversification. You can't just enroll minority students and call it a day. You have to make fundamental changes in the nature of the school (deans, faculty, advising, student groups, etc.) so that the new students you are enrolling feel like they have a stake in the college and aren't just visiting aliens from another planet. Unfortunately, that's probably a lesson that can only be learned the hard way. Colleges trying to move from an all-white to a diverse model today probably won't find it as easy as a recruiting exercise. There are so many subtle undercurrents in campus cultures that just plain take a long time to change.</p>

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<p>
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Am I the only one who thinks that 'elite' and 'selective' are two completely different words?

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<p>Both words can have multiple meanings. When I use the word "elite" I am very much using it with class connotations. The colleges at the top of the USNEWS chart (and therefore the colleges with most selectivity) built their reputations because these were the schools favored by America's uppercrust. They are centered largely in the northeast and mid atlantic because, for most of the history of the country, that's where the wealth was located. There is virtually no tradition of good public universities in the these regions. The private colleges served the market quite nicely. If you have to ask "how much", you can't afford it.</p>

<p>Interesting that the really good public universities are almost all south and west of the northeast corridor and the regions they serve tend to have fewer private schools of note.</p>

<p>America's "elite" started moving after WWII, which led to regional "elite colleges" like UChicago, Duke, Emory, WashSTL, Stanford, etc. -- all of which achieved sufficient "eliteness" to become destinations even for the northeast crowd.</p>

<p>Of course, with an "elite" customer base, these schools were able to build massive endowments, which in turn allows them to literally provide a fancier, more luxurious product to the consumer -- so the rankings don't change. Nor are they likely to change because these well-endowed schools are, for the most part, at the forefront of diversification and are ahead of the coming demographic curve.</p>

<p>For example, Hispanic Magazine just published their list of top colleges for Latino students. Their top-10 are:</p>

<p>Princeton
Harvard
Amherst
Yale
Swarthmore
MIT
Stanford
Pomona
Columbia
Brown</p>

<p>The two California schools make sense. But, the rest aren't exactly historical hotbeds of Latino influence!</p>

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<p>QUOTE:
"It's not so much a decline in total applications, but rather a demographic sea change with the applicant pool shifting to the south and southwest and becoming signficantly more Latino (and Asian American)."</p>

<p>i'dad, I think you and I will be comparing notes in 10 yrs., if CC is still around. :) </p>

<p>I question the "sea-change" designation, just slightly. Regardless of the total <em>growth</em> in the Southwest, for example, that does not promise a concomitant growth in qualification for elite colleges nor necessarily a desire to select <em>NE</em> locations for college in the numbers you seem to assume. (Magazine lists aside.) What IS true, however, right now -- and what will probably continue to be true in 10 years, is much more widespread dispersal of minority communities beyond traditional regionality. Thus, Latinos who until recently immigrated almost exclusively to a few states, are now settling in different areas: Minnesota, all the Gulf States, The Plains States, Montana, the mid-Atlantic, and even the NE. Ditto for Asian-Americans, who are now found in significant numbers in TX, the Plains States, the Midwest, and the Deep South.</p>

<p>The Asian-Americans, like now, will remain competitive for admissions. Latinos as a <em>group</em> have a longer way to go. In general, the Latinos who are doing best right now are those with at least one educated parent, and/or where the family can afford to move to a suburban public or qualify for a private with financial aid. That is still quite a minority. </p>

<p>What I do think is this, however: I agree with marite that the legacy policies of colleges will remain flexible. As URM's themselves become legacies, colleges will be loathe to eliminate the legacy tip entirely. What becomes important for second generation admissions is that an educated individual usually marries someone of similar status, thus improving the educational odds for children of such dual-educated couples. But I tend to see a "sea-change" occurring in more like a full generation than a half-generation, from my vantage point as an educator. </p>

<p>What continues to concern me most is the urban black k-12 population. Lots of creative ideas continue to be tried to fast-forward their educational advancement, but success as a group lags behind that of hispanics as a group.</p>

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<p>I wonder if the first signs of the shortage of "rich whites" is appearing at Smith College. It would stand to reason that the first impact would be with women's colleges, who by of course are restricted to half the population of potential applicants. The proportion of Pell grant students is the highest among the top LACs.
The previous year's USN&WR listed the 4 top LACs in percentage of Pell grant recipients. All were women's colleges in the Northeast.</p>

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<p>ephiphany:</p>

<p>I agree with you for the most part. I think the short term impact of the rapidly increasing Latino population will be felt (actually is being felt) at the public colleges of the Southwest and West. However, even in the northeast and mid-atlantic regions, Latino and Asian American students will drive the increases in high school graduates.</p>

<p>The short-term "sea change" will be the impact of declining numbers of white high school applicants. There are many private colleges and universities struggling for financial equilibrium even during these boom years. School after school has set forth a strategic plan to increase revenues by enrolling more full-pay customers and reducing their discount rates. What is going to happen to these schools with even a modest decline in their targeted customer base? I think you'll see some failures. SweetBriar, for example, was close to the brink when they made their decision to go co-ed, not because they were running out of money, but because their enrollment was plummetting towards zero. </p>

<p>This fits with danas' point. The remaining womens' colleges are almost a separate category. In a way, they are going against the tide in the same way as John McCain trying to run for President on a platform of escalating the occupation of Iraq. All things being equal, the consumers have expressed a clear preference for co-ed. The women's colleges are great schools and attract students for a variety of reasons; however, very few students start out their college search with a preference for a single-sex college.</p>

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What continues to concern me most is the urban black k-12 population. Lots of creative ideas continue to be tried to fast-forward their educational advancement, but success as a group lags behind that of hispanics as a group.

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<p>It's hard to realize much statistical advancement when only half of the African American men in the United States complete high school. If you looked only at women, I suspect that the picture would be much brighter. Actually, the picture is reasonably positive at the elite college level. Twice within the last ten years, Swarthmore has enrolled the highest percentage of Af Am freshmen ever at a top-tier private college or university (12%) and they are doing that while rejecting nearly 2/3rds of their Af Am applications. Those numbers of highly qualified applicants were unthinkable a generation ago when affirmative action meant accepting just about every application that came along. I assume we are seeing the second and third generation effects you mentioned.</p>

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<p>Interesteddad makes a great point about the demographic changes. When you break it down by region it becomes more interesting. The high-school student population in the Northeast will be going down, while the high-school student population in the South will be increasing.</p>

<p>To get more exposure in regions that are more demographically attractive some schools will switch athletic conferences. For example, BC switched from the Big East to the ACC and Northeastern switched to the Colonial League. Both of these conferences provide those schools more exposure in areas where the demographics are still on the upswing.</p>

<p>For some interesting reading on this see this article on BC's switch to the ACC:</p>

<p><a href="http://bcm.bc.edu/issues/fall_2003/ll_acc.html%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://bcm.bc.edu/issues/fall_2003/ll_acc.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>With BC and Northeastern investing in their campuses and faculties they are working to continue to attract students. This added exposure will certainly help. Just don't visit in the middle of the winter. ;-)</p>

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<p>Oops. Major correction. Not Sweet Briar above. Randolph-Macon Women's College! Sorry. Sweet Briar did not go coed! My bad!</p>

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<p>ID, it would be interesting to find out if these data have affected the elite private schools. I went to a western boarding school in the 60s, and we had one african-american, one hispanic and one asian (from Thailand). No girls. My oldest daughter went there until 2005. The school is coed and whites are almost a minority.</p>

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<p>mardad:</p>

<p>I think there are two factors. Many of the elite prep schools have per student endowments rivaling the top colleges. They are using those endowment returns to increase diversity, in the same way that the top colleges have been.</p>

<p>A western boarding school would be impacted by the California demographics. I believe that the state, as a whole, is now minority white. So, of course, those demographics are going to drive enrollment -- at all schools and colleges. Look at the ethnic/racial composition at Berkeley and Stanford.</p>

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<p>"I wonder if the first signs of the shortage of "rich whites" is appearing at Smith College. It would stand to reason that the first impact would be with women's colleges, who by of course are restricted to half the population of potential applicants. The proportion of Pell grant students is the highest among the top LACs.
The previous year's USN&WR listed the 4 top LACs in percentage of Pell grant recipients. All were women's colleges in the Northeast."</p>

<p>No, it is a result of a specific commitment started by Jill Ker Conway some 30 years ago to: 1) actively recruit low-income women in large numbers, and from places where recruiters for elite colleges simply don't usually go; and 2) to set aside 10% of all admissions for older women (ages 26-80).</p>

<p><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Womans-Education-Jill-Ker-Conway/dp/009957991X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_4/103-1612395-5829414?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1176581740&sr=8-4%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.amazon.com/Womans-Education-Jill-Ker-Conway/dp/009957991X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_4/103-1612395-5829414?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1176581740&sr=8-4&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>Amherst has now begun to copy the Smith strategy and they are now up to almost 17% Pell Grantees. It is, however, very expensive, not only in scholarship funds, but in long-term time, energy, and money spent on the part of the admissions departments.</p>

<p>No shortage of rich whites. See:</p>

<p><a href="http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/showthread.php?t=327375%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/showthread.php?t=327375&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>The soaring number of applications, coupled with the lowish percentage of folks getting needs-based aid would suggest there is a signficant surplus, at least at these prices.</p>