Test Optional Strategy

But not SATs—those have diminished in importance significantly since we were applying 30+ years ago.

Completely agree with this. SAT and ACT are in essence (very) easy tests. There are no great mathematical proofs or memorization of facts needed. The only thing that makes them difficult is the time pressure. Accommodations, as well as tutoring (entirely focused on gaming/acing the test, rather than learning anything), tilt the playing field heavily in favor of the haves.

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I never said otherwise. I simply said that grades + SAT isn’t really that different from “grades,” and, that ECs and LORs were important, even back in the day.

Of course, if the most desired universities in the US enrolled a number of students similar to Canada’s UToronto, McGill, and UBC scaled up to the US population, then they would enroll over a million students, so they would have much less need to use additional subjective criteria to distinguish between those 200,000 ACT 34+ students.

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And in fact you could also give them academic tasks like research and writing, and periodic quizzes, and all sorts of other better evaluations of their actual preparation for college classes and their many tasks.

And then we could call them generally “grades”.

In other words, the problem here is a lack of standardization of curriculum and evaluations. But there is nothing particularly special about “tests”, and indeed they are poor ways of evaluating various things that really matter in college.

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It’s different, and not always more stressful.

For example, I routinely advise students to apply to non-holistic McGill to reduce stress. Why? Because for the solid student with strong grades and test scores, McGill becomes a safety. Colleges that could be considered peers, like Michigan or Berkeley, can be a crapshoot due to holistic admissions, but they will have McGill in their back pocket.

I agree that admission to McGill is certainly easier than Tokyo University, IIT, or Tsinghua. But it’s not them or bust either in those countries. Each has a set of respected universities that students get into.

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What do you mean?

That, сeteris paribus, one’s admissions chances can be significantly affected by their demographics.

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So checking the “wrong” box means checking the incorrect box? Or does it mean lying about one’s demographics? I don’t understand. How does one check the wrong box unless one is lying or (I guess) confused about one’s status.

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Wrong: not satisfactory.

And we can all move to South Dakota to enhance our kids geographic desirability.

Moving on…

I don’t disagree that the ACT/SAT are fairly basic. At the same time, there aren’t 200,000 kids getting a 34+ ACT every year - most estimates I’ve seen show that about 45,000 kids score a 33 or better - even if you want to double that number it is nowhere near 200,000.

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We did that exact thing. Fortunately, S24 really liked it a lot when we visited this summer so it’s a win/win.

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That’s just my back-of-the-envelope estimate based on the number of high school graduates (3.5-4M) and math ACT 34 (or its SAT equivalent) being 95th percentile.

34 is 98 percentile

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In the 2022-23 cycle, there were about 1.1 million US applicants per the Common App.

But, not every HS graduate takes the ACT. In 2022 (most recent available), 1.35 million students took the ACT. 1.7 million students took the SAT. Some subset of students take both so I’d guess somewhere around 2.5-2.75 million students took some form of standardized test. That would mean somewhere in the vicinity of 25,000 test takers scored in the 1%. If you refine it to the tippy top of that group - 36 scorers on the ACT and 1580+ scorers on the SAT it’s fewer than 10,000 . And since not all test takers are seniors, the number of kids scoring in the top band are going to be even fewer for the purposes of college application.

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My bad, looks like I misremembered the percentiles. Should have checked myself.

Either way, sounds like we all made our points and actually are largely in agreement.

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The number of high school graduates is lower than that. According to NCES and other sources,the number high school students graduating each year is around 3.3-3.4 million.

According to the National Student Clearinghouse, in Fall 2022, there were 2,337,914 freshmen. These were joined, in Spring 2023, by an additional 424,467, according to the NSC.

A decent number of these are non-traditional students or students who took a year or two off.

Around 62% of high school graduates go straight to college, so the number of freshmen who just graduated from high school is more likely to be around 2 million or so.

PS. the number of high school graduates dropped pretty sharply in 2021, but 2022 and 2023 was better.

It’s always more stressful in the places to which I was referring. And Canada was not one of them.

ETA: I’d note too that you are describing and prescribing for a different situation. You’re talking about kids who have already met some known bar (“the solid student with strong grades and test scores”), and then simply letting the school (McGill) know they exist, and so they’re in. That’s different than the stress that comes leading up to and sitting for these all or nothing exams.