I was told when I started looking at PhD programs that you had a 5% chance of getting a job at a “better” department (or a better job), 15% chance of getting a job at the same level, 30% chance of getting a job the level below, and a 50% chance of getting a job 2 levels below. Don’t ask me what a “level” is in this case, it was a while ago and I think I got the percentages right.
So if you get your PhD from MIT in EE (top 1-2), maybe 5% you get a primo offer at a top 5-6 department, 15% you get a regular offer from a top 5-6 department, 30% you get an offer from a 7-15 department, 50% you get an offer from a 16-30 department. Something like that.
Conversely, if you get your PhD from PSU in EE (25th or so), maybe 5% you get an offer from a 7-15 department, 15% you get an offer from a 16-30 department, 30% you get an offer from a 31-75 department, and 50% you get an offer from a 76- program.
One of the main points was that if you want academia you should aim high because you don’t have to sink too far in the rankings to find yourself most likely to be teaching at some place like South Central Louisiana State (GO MUDDOGS!!). Conversely, if you come from one of the elite schools you’ll get an offer somewhere if only so that they can say they have Harvard/Stanford/MIT grads in the department.