<p>Though you can position it that a full pay kid is paying for self and at least part of another’ kid’s costs, it really is not the way it works. EVERYONE is getting a subsidy for college costs. The true cost of college for each student is much more than even the most expensive COA. What colleges charge for the students is what they hope to get in aggregate to balance their costs.</p>
<p>As to what I think will happen with college costs, well…I’ve been so wrong about this for 20 years, maybe longer. I did not believe it would ever reach this point. I was sure the market would change. But I guess the cost gurus know exactly what they are doing in setting the college costs at a level where they can still get kids to apply and scrape up the money somewhere, somehow from somebody.</p>
<p>So, I’ll predict again, thougj my track record is crud in this area. I think that there will be a big fall out with many folks defaulting on student loans. I simply cannot see how kids can pay the $80K+ some of them owe. Nor can I see how parents are going to repay the loans they took, with the economy the way it is. Many of our generation and a bit older are not going to get the windfalls from our homesales as the parents a few years ago did. Something is going to have to go, and you can’t eat school loans even when they are up to date.</p>
<p>I also predict that more families are going to become more cost conscious and set stricter guidelines as to where a kid can go to school with finances become the reason. So those schools that are not meeting need, not discounting tuition with merit awards are going to be in trouble. Not the HYP and company. They’ll do just fine since folks will be willing to pay for those schools. BUt Axel University, a private college pretty much only known in the immediate area and to those who went there, is going to take it on the chin. No more of those private loans that students and parents can take. Such schools may well close their doors. State schools, particularly the flagships will become even more competitive in terms of applications. Cost will become a more outstanding issue in the college picture.</p>
<p>I hope these things happen. I believe that schools that cannot afford to give most of their kids close to the need figures generated by standard financial aid calculators are not worth their cost. If Axel U has to gap half their students by about $15-20K a year, something is wrong. The cost of Axel U is too high. No one should go to Axel U because it is not worth the cost.</p>
<p>I hear a lot of community college advice. Well, that isn’t the only choice avallabe to many low income kids who don’t want to go to the Axel U’s of the world. They can go to local state schools as non degree students and get a record good enough to be accepted in the degree program there. Sometimes such schools have more serious kids there, and more academic resources since they do have to provide for junior and senior level students, unlike community colleges that are geared only for the first two years of courses. They can go part time. And “THEY” are going to be our kids, my kids, to get personal here. Cuz we can’t afford the current full freight price tags of most private colleges including the room, board and other expenses that come when you live at the school. Something has to give. We were burned once stretching ourselves, and let me tell you, by any financial guidelines what we paid is not supposed to be a stretch at our income level.</p>