<p>The economy will not affect applications to top schools cause that boat has sailed and applications are up most places. But it will affect the yield ( % of admittees that take the offer to enroll) because those many that thought they could afford the tuition at an Ivy even after financial aid may decline enrollment for the local state school etc. This will not affect very poor students ( financial aid is nearly 100% at top schools for low income) nor will it affect those who are still rich) but for the newly demoted middle class it affect the outcome.</p>
<p>The result is that many colleges will go much deeper in to the waiting list this year.</p>
<p>Or in some lower tier schools will fail to fill out enrollment with negative financial effects.</p>
<p>And yes the economy is going to get worse in ways many are not expecting</p>
<p>I agree with shermanbus83 as well. The schools just below the very top tier will be negatively affected and top state flagship universities will be receiving more of those students then they would otherwise.</p>
<p>I agree with half of Sherman's thought. The Ivies + Stanford will not be affected because they have moved over the past three years to a very rich financial aid emphasis that makes them essentially free for families in the $20k - $60k earnings brakcet, and cheaper than State schools (assuming the student doesn't live at home) for the $60k - $130k earnings band, where most college applicant's families fall.</p>
<p>The only people for whom State Schools (including dorm or apartment) would be cheaper than an Ivy or Stanford would be the $130k+ families.</p>
<p>However, I think his thoughts are exactly on for all privates outside the top 20.</p>
<p>The Ivies plus Stanford are nine schools. DunninLA, how do you feel about the remainder of the so called top twenty? There are thousands of students attending those schools who are in the so called 60-130k band. Will they be hurting big time as well?</p>
<p>Yes, outside of the top 20-50 schools (Ivies, Stanford, MIT, Caltech, Chicago, Duke, the top LACs, etc) my prediction is May 1 is going to look like a morgue at private schools admissions office. I don't claim to be an economist (oh, and like they know everything), but this recession is and will be worse than prior ones. BTW unemployment did not reach its peak in 1929, but not till years later. </p>
<p>Many private schools are already deluged with emergency finaid requests, and I would hope that they would say their first mission is to keep the kids already enrolled afloat. That may mean changing standards for 2009-2010.</p>
<p>rjk -- that's an interesting group.. Duke, Wash U, Hopkins, NU, Vandy, MIT, Caltech, etc.</p>
<p>They are not, to my knowlege, nearly as liberal with their FA policies as the Ivies and Stanford. Yes, their Top 20 status may be sufficient for families to suck it up and borrow 20-30 years worth of debt to attend. The value proposition for the private for which the student must continually answer "Oh, that's nice, what kind of school is that, and where is it?" is less attractive.</p>
<p>The easy choices are Ivies and Top Publics. these prestigious less generous schools are more of a tossup.</p>
<p>I agree with much of what's said here. If our son gets admitted to a "game changer" private a year from now we may be faced with a very tough financial decision. But there aren't many of those. Our state flagship is easily one of the top fifty Universities in the country. Is there really a substantive qualitative difference between 25 and 50 on any such list? I have my doubts. Is there even enough of a difference between 10 and 50 to justify an additional cost of well over $100,000 over four years in perilous economic times? </p>
<p>I suspect there will be tens of thousands of families similarly situated to ours that will be studying the same calculation. We all had a cushion a year ago (granted, it was more of an illusion); that's gone now.</p>
<p>If nothing else, however, I suspect that the cohort of students entering state flagship schools this year and next will be noticeably more accomplished.</p>