The Overlap Effect

College Majors Music Major
1

<p>A curious thought I've been having. Let's say you have a particular music degree, in this case let's say popular music/commercial voice (Since that's what my D is looking into). Like most programs, you have hundreds of kids vying for maybe 20-25 spots at any given school. </p>

<p>Think of programs like USC, Belmont, Miami Frost, Denver/Lamont, UC-Denver, Berklee, NYU (Clive Davis), UArts Philly. </p>

<p>While only 20-25 kids accepted seems like a small number out of maybe 500 auditioning, the truth seems to be that many of those 500 kids are auditioning at most if not all of these schools. Therefore you really have maybe 500-800 kids auditioning for about 200-250 spots. That makes the batting average seem less daunting. We've seen kids like 27dreams audition and get green lighted at all of these schools - but they can only choose one. When that student chooses one school, a spot opens up at the others. </p>

<p>Is this twisted, rambling analysis reason for kids to feel more optimistic about getting into one of their chosen programs? </p>

<p>(Again, this analysis could apply to any instrument - popular music or violin, percussion or clarinet. Just hoping to clarify that this whole pursuit is not as depressing as it sometimes seems)</p>

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<p>Sounds simple on paper. But a certain percentage of the kids are going to be accepted at all of the schools, another percentage of the same kids will be accepted at most of the schools etc until there may be a percentage not accepted at any of the schools. A large factor in play is the yield at each school. Some schools may accept just over 1 student for each opening, some will accept two students for each opening and so forth.
Of course, auditions are not done on paper so if every student does their best, they are in the game.</p>

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<p>Well, a student turning down an offer of admission does not really open up a new spot anywhere else. This is because top music programs tend not to have waiting lists (you’re accepted or not accepted) and all the schools plan for their yield, like Compdad said. </p>

<p>But at least here on CC, it does seem that most students find a place to study music. Perhaps that comes down to planning for “safeties,” as much as one can for a music program.</p>

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<p>The Ivies and the University of Chicago got in trouble with the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department several years ago for having just such meetings with each other regarding financial aid packages for the students they were accepting.</p>

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<p>Then I stand corrected, ivebeenthere. Except NEC, those are the few schools that my son did not research or apply to, so I guess there are many variations!</p>

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<p>@jazz… so, do schools accept more than the 25 slots they have, knowing that a number of those will go elsewhere? Maybe I worded my question poorly. For example, if your child is accepted at both USC and UCLA and she chooses UCLA, that means she will not be taking up a slot at USC, therefore someone else will be in that spot, correct?</p>

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<p>K8sDad, yes, for USC, they purposely accept a few more than they expect to come. But a student turning them down does NOT open a new spot for someone else. USC does NOT keep a wait list, for music or otherwise. (Other USC majors do, however, accept some people to begin in the Spring, but not Thornton.)</p>

<p>I’m fairly certain UCLA does not wait list musicians, either, but I could be wrong there.</p>

<p>As someone noted above, other music programs may indeed keep a wait list.</p>

<p>Most if not all colleges and universities accept more applicants than they expect to attend - the “yield” is the percentage that matriculates, and they are well aware what this number is likely to be.</p>

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<p>K8sdad, on the off chance your D is looking at USC’s Popular Music program (my son is a sophomore in that), they have a ridiculously high yield. Perhaps because of the very few such programs in the country, a great majority of accepted students do matriculate. Thornton would be able to give you the exact numbers. PM me if I can answer any other questions.</p>

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<p>FYI, many “popular music” programs (like USC) do not have “studios.”</p>

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<p>From what I know of the admissions process in schools, I doubt very much that teachers get together and in effect swap information on students like that, if for the reason that admission to the schools is not decided by the teachers directly, when an audition happens teachers rate the applicant on ability and also indicate whether they would be willing to teach the student, and from there it is up to the office on admitting kids (so basically, if the applicant makes the cutoff level on their performance, and also has teachers willing to take them, they get in). All schools as far as I know admit more students then they have slots for, they know what their acceptance rate is, and thus have a certain number over the line (what if too many kids accept? Kind of like the old story about Irish families, make more room for another kid:). After the audition happens, even if said teachers got together, it wouldn’t matter, because they again have no power at that point (I can’t say this is true for every music school, but I am pretty certain it is true of the major ones). The reason kids who make it into let’s say Juilliard might not get into a ‘lesser program’ is when the panel hears them play, they basically say “what the heck is that kid applying here for, no way they would come here, they are too good, they are just using us as a safety”. </p>

<p>In terms of getting in, you can’t assume the same 500 students are the only ones applying to the major schools, so therefore the odds are better (i.e 25 go to X, 25 to Y,…until they all have slots). It depends on the instrument, some years they audition with no slots open, some years they may only admit 1 flute grad or undergrad, etc. There are many kids who might audition for program X (let’s say Eastman) but not Y (Juilliard) because they believe it is easier to get into Eastman on their instrument (it prob isn’t, but still). The thing is, when you are talking music programs, let’s say Juilliard versus NEC, the top 50 or 60 applicants on the violin are probably at the same relative levels to each other, so your odds of getting into either program is in reality the same (in other words, if you aren’t even in the top 50 or 60, you don’t have a chance)…meanwhile, Juilliard might get 320 applications, NEC might have 200, and if you looked at the stats it looks better to get in NEC, but in reality it is the same since below #60, there is almost zero chance of getting in. Basically, the odds of getting into a top level music program is tough as hell and nothing is going to change that, and all kinds of factors, including luck, play a role:)</p>

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<p>“Basically, the odds of getting into a top level music program is tough as hell and nothing is going to change that, and all kinds of factors, including luck, play a role.”</p>

<p>Well said, Musicprnt.</p>

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<p>“some of the profs from the various “colleges” in NYC got together for dinner and discussed the prospective students.”</p>

<p>Ivebeenthere: a few years ago, someone on the forum referred to this as “camel trading”. I would believe that this kind of thing does happen, especially in a situation where a student did not qualify for one school based on academics, or was personally acquainted with a teacher who just could not take them.</p>

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<p>K8sDad, At schools like the ones you listed (Thornton, Uarts, NYU/Clive, Berklee, etc, they most likely are offering admission to a number of students, taking into consideration the historical number of students that actually end up matriculating. So when a student declines the offer of admission, the colleges don’t then extend a new offer to someone else. Your best best is to help your student be as prepared as possible, but also consider some music schools that offer the training your student ultimately needs, even if it is not from one of these selective music schools.</p>