Thoughts on Elon Musk buying a stake in Twitter?

NO PROOF OF THAT!! Oh…sorry force of habit.

Elon is playing this smart. Twitter isn’t a great money making model in its current form.

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Don’t tweet when high on something… the SEC and the judges will not be amused. :slight_smile:

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I said the deal might not happen. Hmmmmmm

At least now you can test your kids’ understanding of statistics by asking them to explain why Musk’s latest proposal to examine a random sample of followers will over-estimate the percentage of bots compared to active individual users of Twitter.

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The CNBC talking heads agreed today: Elon is looking into contract law to help him get out of this impulse purchase. :laughing:

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The whole “bot issue” was there before the purchase. And nothing has changed. To the casual observer, me, it sounds like complete nonsense.

He can get out without much lawyer-ing, but then he would have to pay the $1 Billion break up fee. The real lawyer-ing is necessary so as to weasle out of paying the break-up fee. :grinning:

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Looks like some lawyers will have an opportunity to bill a lot of hours! :slight_smile:

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It depends on the proliferation of the bots. If the count is high, which I’m beginning to suspect, that’s a death blow to Twitter. Those are quantifiable damages for advertisers. They were led to believe they were reaching a population segment, but found out later that perhaps half the accounts they were advertising to were actually fake. It’s like buying the Titanic after it hit the iceberg.

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Shhh, don’t tell anyone, but I’ll bet the number of bots that are out there are WAY more than the 5% that Twitter puts into their regulatory filings. There’s research or studies that show the number of bots on Twitter could be as high as 35% or more.

Old news. He paid too much in the first place and now he’s either looking for a way out or he’s negotiating a new deal.

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But most of them aren’t part of the mDAU (monetizable daily average users) that the 5% refers to. To be an mDAU you have to be logged into your account and pass challenges like captchas. And those are the people advertisers are buying access to (hence “monetizable”).

Twitter’s CEO described the counting process today:

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I don’t think he’s looking to get out of the purchase just renegotiate the price. I don’t care what it sells for, I just want someone/anyone to buy it and open up the algorithm. Musk seems like the best person to do that, IMO.
It’s a long wait period until Oct. If the price falls a lot, more buyer might step in to take advantage of a low current price and the likely purchase price. It lost 8% today. So we’ll see where the bottom is and also what Musk will do next.

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I’m going to give Twitter 50/50 chance of survival. If Twitter turns out to be an interactive botnet program, it’s going to be Enron 2.0.

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Given that 70% of Musk’s followers are fake, that may be more likely than not :wink:

But none of this has anything to do with mDAU which is the important thing for advertisers.

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I would suspect that number to be much higher than 20%. If that’s the case, I would pull out and let them collapse. Funny that Truth Social might become the #2 social media site next to Facebook. Lol!

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Pull out and get sued, not just for $1B but for specific performance. At the end of this saga I suspect it’s more likely that Musk collapses (financially or otherwise) than Twitter.

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OK, this news story made me laugh:

I just finished reading a Law360 article with interviews of a couple of law professors. Apparently, as part of the settlement with the SEC, Elon’s market-moving tweets were supposed to be reviewed by an attorney. When asked if he thought Musk’s recent tweets were pre-approved by a lawyer, one law prof responded that he “can’t imagine.”
No crap about that!! :laughing:

(Law360 is behind a paywall, but lets you read it for 7 days for free).

Elon does some crazy :poop: that makes me laugh sometimes. He can’t seem to keep any of his thoughts to himself.

I realize that CC members may not be fans of South Park, but there’s a classic South Park episode, Season 17 Episode 1 (2013), where the lead character acquires a new device called Xxitter (Replace Tw with Sh) and the only two users are the lead character and Alec Baldwin.

The Xxitter device broadcasts a user’s thoughts out loud publicly and sends them right to the Internet. No reviewing or filtering whatsoever. Musk’s :poop: tweet reminded me of that episode.