This whole thing stinks to high heaven.
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https://www.grid.news/story/technology/2022/05/13/why-elon-musk-cant-just-walk-away-from-the-twitter-deal/ is an interview with a law professor who teaches on corporate law, mergers and acquisitions and venture capital. According to the law professor, it is not completely at Muskās option to pay $1 billion to walk away from the deal.
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Hereās a good explainer of why thatās not the case: Musk's endgame for twitter may be a lower buyout price
However, given past history I tend to think that the statement āNeither Musk nor Twitter will particularly want a drawn-out court battleā will not prove to be an accurate reading of Muskās behavior and intentions.
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I try to think of Elon Musk as little as possible but it keeps getting harder and harder to do so.
Iām not sure they can since Twitter breeched the contract. Itāll be interesting to see what happens next. Iām buying popcorn!
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Next, we need Elon to create a high tech bat-suit, then interrogate the Twitter executives. That should end the stalemate.
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Then I donāt understand the purpose or significance of a ātermination feeā of $1 Billion in the merger agreement, if Twitter still has the ability to either negotiate a larger settlement or enforce the terms of the merger agreement.
There doesnāt seem to be a point to the termination fee other than itās a starting point for a settlement?
You just have to watch some of the executives @Twitter caught on camera talking about censorship, Asbergers, communism and making money. Itās really a window into a very broken company/people.
As Iāve always said, I invested for the free speech aspect and if I make money great. If not, I put my money where my mouth was. Free speech means a lot to me. And Iām guessing to many others.
I think there will be a lot more iterations of info, news and questionable bots before this deal gets done, if it does.
I think Elon Musk has the company in a tough position. If he backs out, there is a large likelihood the stock falls, a lot. If they have lied about the bot number then they have broken the terms. What is stated in the documents has to be correct or there would be a reason for the contract to be broken. And Iām sure those Twitter execs donāt want their options free falling. Plus they likely own and hold a lot of stock. So they need to treat Musk with kid gloves and Iām sure they hate that.
Twitter can choose to take the $1B cash and walk away. That would be simple and quick. If another bidder was waiting in the wings then theyād probably choose that option. But because thereās no alternative bidder and their potential losses are so much greater, itās better to compel specific performance. However it will require 6-12 months of litigation to enforce that.
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There is zero evidence that Twitter breached the contract. Nevertheless during the lawsuit both sides will get discovery, including details of the mDAU calculation. Although that information wonāt be seen publicly, most normal people would then back down and settle when shown they are wrong. However Musk is not a normal person and seems to believe the law doesnāt apply to him, so I fully expect this to go to trial.
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According to the talking heads on CNBC, the price of stock today reflects the likelihood the deal doesnāt happen. The market has no faith the deal will go through. So at least some feel the stock is already priced w/o the Musk purchase.
Says it all. I personally wouldnāt invest a dollar in what they say. But Iām sure a lot of folks would.
The market is a broad term. Iām a tiny stockholder and I think the deal will go through. There are thousands like me. And thousands more who will do various things depending on the next few months. There is no unified āmarketā. There are only major investors like mutual funds and big traders and small investors. If people can make money they will buy and if they think itās a losing proposition theyāll sell.
What makes it interesting, IMHO is the amount of attention this sale has raised. Why? Itās a huge cultural divide.
I think many people would like to see Twitter stay the same (using the same tactics and continuing along), many others would like to see the algorithm become open source or at least examined and some others would like to see a paid revenue stream like Musk has proposed. Many people with strong opinions donāt own the stock ( and they havenāt shorted it either). So the popcorn show is really when people actually buy it or sell it. In other words, what someone thinks about Musk has no bearing on this deal unless they buy, hold or sell Twitter stock.
Bot writers would certainly like to see what the bot-detection/blocking part of algorithm is, so that they can write bots that more easily evade it.
Non-investors who could be of influence now would include securities regulators, courts, lawyers, etcā¦
Non-investor users (including bots) and advertisers coming and going would also have financial effects that could influence investors.
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Iām not a Twitter investor, Iām just listening to what others have said in the news.
Of course, one can always be a conspiracy theorist and think the people on TV are out to get their money in this case. Just because Jim Cramer says āXā is a buy, for example, Iām not buying, because someone on TV said so.
As for the Twitter sale, if the market believed the Musk deal would actually go through, I think the price of Twitter would be closer to the $54.20/share sale price, even though the market is down as a whole.
100%, it was quite close to the offered price with a slight markdown. Has fallen quite a bit over the last month. More sellers or not ready to invest than buyers for sure.
Itās a bet that Iām not willing to make. But if a person felt strongly the deal would ultimately go through and at a price closer to the current agreed upon price, then buying some Twitter stock right now could obviously make a person some money. 
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What evidence is there that Twitter breached any contract? Elon Muskās poop emojis?
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With all the popcorn references, and Muskās ever increasing craziness, I couldnāt get this image out of my head, even though American lawyers donāt wear wigs:
(From https://twitter.com/butterkistuk/status/1526163106602401794)
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Ironically, Elon just caused another meltdown on Twitter after exposing half of the meltdown are from fake bot accounts! Itās just comical!
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Whatever Musk is doing, it doesnāt seem to be working:
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