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So I've just used my econ major nonsense to calculate the "net present value" of various careers.</p>
<p>A net present value is: take the money they'll earn over their lifetimes. How much of a present sum (say, a lottery) would they have to earn to have an equal value of money, when you take time into account?</p>
<p>Assumptions: 7% interest rate, salary computations for 27708 zip code based off of salary.com. Retirement at 65. Bonuses included where relevant (Corporate Finance).</p>
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<p>Auto Mechanic: $720K
Chemical Engineer: $740K
Family Practitioner: $910K
Corporate Attorney: $1 M
Interventional Cardiologist: $1.12 M
Neurosurgeon: $1.28 M
Corporate Finance: $2.6M</p>
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<p>Don't forget, doctors work much longer hours than the others, so the fact that they make 10% more than a corporate attorney is a REALLY bad deal.</p>
<p>Finally, you should expect doctor salaries to continue to drop over time, possibly quite severely.</p>
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<p>Whether or not people who are becoming doctors for the money are being ethical or whatnot, they're certainly not behaving wisely in a financial sense.
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<p>You mentioned throughout your post that doctors' salaries are dropping. Do you include dentists and its specialities in this category? If not, do you know anything about how dental salaries are going to fare in the future?</p>
<p>1.) No.</p>
<p>2.) No idea. My suspicion is that it'll be stable, since it's not (yet) subject to the same kinds of market forces that medical care is subject to.</p>
<p>Medical specialties that tend to be elective - as dentistry dominantly is - tend to be faring quite well. Plastics, orthopedic surgeons, dermatologists, etc. do better then emergency medicine doctors, cardiothoracic surgeons, ob/gyns, etc., because they don't have as much responsibility for emergency situations.</p>
<p>This has two impacts. The more discussed but probably less important one is malpractice related. The less-discussed has to do with the (moral, not legal I don't think) obligation to treat all patients. Doctors who don't have that (in the same sense) tend to see patients who have good insurance and who can compensate them well for their services.</p>
<p>This may change in the future, as America tackles its insurance difficulties - a problem dentists still will not face.</p>
<p>PS: Studying Mitt Romney's plan for universal health insurance in Massachusetts, however, makes me much more optimistic about the future of medicine. A plan that... well, actually works, defying all the expectations of economic conservatives. Developed by the quite-conservative Heritage Foundation, Republican governor Romney, and consultation from top corporate executives all over the country - developed during Romney's years as the CEO of Bain - the math actually seems to work out, and it certainly has some very solid economic credentials behind it.</p>