Nobody can say exactly what YOUR chance of admission is. The fact remains that the overall admission rate at Carleton is 23%, a little higher if ED, and a little lower if RD. I daresay it is lower still if a student’s stats are on the low end.
I totally concur that no one should apply ED with the primary goal of increasing their odds. At Carleton the benefit is minimal. But, you have indeed made the point that perhaps you have nothing to lose and maybe a little to gain.
Also, you made a good point that not all the “special” admittees will be below par, but I agree with those commenters who suggest that students in the bottom 25% must shine in other departments or somehow add to the Carleton community in a special way. Not saying you don’t, since I don’t know your particulars, just sayin’!
If you are considering engineering, you may also want to consider liberal arts colleges that may offer business and engineering degrees such as Lafayette, Bucknell, or Lehigh
Pretty much all students in the bottom 50% are admitted because they have something the college wants and, at Carleton like elsewhere, the students below 25percentile all have a major hook. Top 50% are academic admits, ie., they don’t have a hook or something unique, and are admitted based on their academics, ECs being tie-breakers.
This is just the way it goes. You can trust us, or read the many books that present admissions from an admission officer’s point of view.
My son applied ED I at Carleton with an ACT of 34, an SAT SuperScore of 2310, National Merit Semi Finalist, 3.6 GPA (his downfall), but with a completely rigorous course load, including 7 APs plus 5 more he is taking his Sr year. Attends one of the top public HS’s in MN. Great essays (3 supplementals + Comm App essay), 3 letters of rec and plenty of decent ECs, outside, work, etc. and he was rejected. We did file for Fin Aid and I can tell you the CSS Profile is no walk in the park for your parents. We spent at least an entire weekend gathering all the info requested and trying to make our best estimates for our 2015 income and taxes and The Profile asks for some 2016 estimates too. The FAFSA is much easier, by comparison, but all the schools you listed, except U of Mn require the Profile.
Macalester’s and Grinnell’s EDII deadlines passed already, on January 1st. All the rest, regular decision apps, including all Fin Aid paperwork, is due in only a few days. My S’16 is applied to similar schools, asap, after recv’ing his ED I decision. Most of them have Supplemental Essays to add to the Common App essay. All the schools you listed are very selective, and not need blind. There are no safeties on your list, except maybe U of MN, if you got your app in before Dec 15th. St. Olaf is a great school, esp for sciences, has a rep as a friendly, less stressed student body than Carleton. St O and Macalester still have ACT scores of 26-31 and 28-32, respectively, so neither of those is a slam dunk either. I suggest you apply to a few closer to match/safety schools, like Lawrence Univ in WI, or Illinois Wesleyan in IL, both of which are well-regarded small LACs like the ones you prefer. RE: Larger schools, you have a really great Engineering School right in your own backyard - Iowa State, and the cost is so reasonable: $16,840, before what I call “pizza money.” You can take all the dough you save on undergraduate costs and apply it to a great grad school, if that is what your heart is set on pursuing! Good luck to you and your parents!
Oh, I missed that info. We visited ISU, and really enjoyed the campus. Their engineering programs are particularly strong. Unfortunately both my D’s have decided they really prefer smaller campuses. ISU seems like a great option for OP. Thank you for the clarification.
In case anyone reads this thread in the future, I did decide to apply to Carleton ED and just received my offer of admission today. I thought that Carleton was a much better fit for me (the smaller town, study abroad, and arb were all very appealing to me), and I absolutely loved my visit. I think Carleton does a great job at looking past the numbers, but applying ED definently helped. I wasn’t able to interview and instead sent an email to the office of admissions articulating my personality and some things that I have done (like fundraisers and volunteer work) that weren’t on my app which I think was well received. Good luck to anyone else applying and I hope you find a school that excites you!