<p>Sorry to burst your bubble but I am bringing some perspective - it’ll be good for you. People are overly optimistic and tend to have their hopes crushed. </p>
<p>“Decent shot” is ~40% and above. You have a decent shot at PSU and Wiscy. If you apply to both, chances are you get into at least one of them. </p>
<p>Cornell takes a lot of students via transfer guarantees, NY CC’s, other agreements, etc… Michigan takes a lot of CC students as well. You have a worse-than-average chance of getting into either of those schools, as in <20%. Don’t pin your hopes on these schools, but DO make your app perfect b/c these are your highest likely reaches.</p>
<p>Duke takes literally 5% of transfers. You won’t get in. Apply, but don’t try too hard and waste your resources when you could focus on Michigan/Cornell. </p>
<p>SAT scores still matter. How do you think they’ll weed out 4.0’s from Wallabee State U? Of course, it matters less than coming out of HS, but it still has significance (@ least 15% of their decision factors from SAT/standardized testing).</p>
<p>Your recs won’t be as important as you think. Won’t have as much weight as they did in HS, barring some tremendous recs. The adcoms know that at colleges, it is harder to get to know profs than it was your HS teachers, who saw you every day over 4 years. Also remember that great profs often don’t write great recs. Your essays and your overall application package (supplementary writing, updated resumes, etc) will matter a whole lot more. </p>
<p>And to be honest, they will note your situation, but part of their approach is to review applicants without “sympathy.” If you play the sympathy card too much (as you have palpably injected into this thread), they will instantly ding you. I’m sorry for your loss, but as I said, they cannot admit every under-scoring applicant with a compelling personal case. Understand?</p>