<p>So you predicted the bear stearns collapse?</p>
<p>The students don’t leave only because of academic problems. Some have family issues. Some decide they don’t like it including some with high aptitude. Also, those that fail out are not necessarily at the low end of the admitted pool. Some top students go to college and lose focus. Some bright kids discover alcohol or drugs or simply don’t have the self dicipline to get up and go to class without a parent pushing them. The kids that drop out or transfer are probably harder to predict than stocks.</p>
You are right, Ben, yet another major flaw. It must kill the LAC’s who send a far higher percentage of their graduates to grad school and professional school than most research universities.</p>
<p>Man, only a day and we have torn this thing apart, lol. In a week we will have some universities ready to sue them or something.</p>
<p>That is a legitimate point Benetode. I guess the bottom line is to take the info for what it is. It is far from perfect. It has to be flawed since people are unique and function in unique circumstaces. There is no perfect predictor of future earnings. It is interesting to look at though and worth some consideration in making a college choice.</p>
I’m not saying foresight is perfect - if mine were, I’d be rich. However, there is no denying that stocks fail on a nonrandom basis.
We aren’t talking about universal truths but rather probabilities. </p>
<p>Look, for a prospective student the grad rate has little place in an ROI calc. Most of the issues associated with top student failures (lack of independence, family issues, etc.) would occur at any school. If I’m trying to decide between Tulane and some other school, I shouldn’t look at the non-graduating figure as the probability that I personally won’t graduate because it’s a nonrandom situation. I’m either considerably more or considerably less likely to drop out than that number suggests depending on whether I fit the at-risk groupings mentioned in post #20 or those you suggest. In the former case, I might do well to consider an easier or cheaper school. In the latter, family or independence issues will be present at any school but might be mitigated by staying near home. The point is that the end result is misleading if you try to alter the ROI by simply multiplying by the grad rate.</p>