“Anyone more familiar with Kentucky public universities able to say how much more difficult it is to get admitted to UK or UL versus EKU, KSU, Morehead State, Murray State, NKU, and WKU?”
At some point in my life I have been on the campus of all of the above except KSU (which is or was a HBCU).
Although UK is the flagship, you could definitely put UL in the same tier. Top 200 national research universities, Tier 1 research, admission stats similar (avg ACT 25), athletics programs, located in the two largest cities in the state. UL was historically much more of a commuter school but that has been changing.
The other five you group together, once again very similar stats (avg ACT 22). In much smaller towns. Geographically dispersed so as to serve their region of the state. All have significantly lower COAs than UK. The top 25% of their student bodies are going to be the 25 to 30 ACT kids, and as Gator88NE pointed out they are all offering significant merit aid to that group (of the automatic guaranteed variety, half to full tuition), making these schools very affordable options for this group. This group isn’t getting much of any help at UK presently. Their is a very significant cost difference right now for the 25 to 30 ACT kids. For this group the better financial deal is clearly at the directional schools as of today. If you want UK you have to pay up for it. If you don’t want to pay up or can’t afford to you go to one of the directionals.
http://www.wku.edu/scholarship/beginningfreshmanscholarships.php
http://www.murraystate.edu/admissions/scholarships/newfreshmen.aspx
At these five directionals, the top 50% of their students are 22 to 30 ACT. A wide range of SES with this group. With these policy changes at UK, what you are doing is pulling the low SES kids from this group to UK, and sending the higher stats (31-36 ACT kids) out of state. You shrink the directionals or else take on more students who need remedial ed.
Good policy for the state or not?
Should mention that UL has a unique affordability option. If you work part-time for UPS they will pay your tuition plus at UL.