Every top school fills 50% (+/- 10%) of the class via early admissions. It’s just the way it is. In the case of UChicago they have 3 different ways for early admission while others have just one or two.
Correct @CU123 but those “3 different ways” make it almost impossible to get in RD.
And I don’t think that the schools that only have EA fill 50% ish…I think it’s closer to 30% and often the RD admission rate is a bit higher and they leave the EA slots for kids that would definitely get in RD, and defer those that might not be slam dunks.
So the combination of early application options has HUGE implications.
I guess it’s a matter of personal opinion @BrianBoiler but I think it is helpful to know your chances in each round to help you decide where to spend your time. A kid that actually might have a chance at U Chicago is likely considering applying to other top schools that require quality essays. If they knew their chances were only 2-3% RD, they may not bother.
Maybe what’s obvious to me isn’t obvious, but it sure seems like they don’t want people to realize how much harder it is to get in RD because they don’t want to discourage them from applying because they want to increase their applications so they can year after year claim they broke the prior year’s record, or at least just brag about how selective their school it.
I know of many students that have more than one “top choice”. Understanding the true picture might help them strategize where they apply ED I, EA, ED II, and RD.
For whatever reason, Chicago seems to be more secretive with this info than most. What is it they don’t want us to know? It’s probably 5-10 times easier to get in ED. I think prospective freshman have a right to know that.
@collegemomjam some data from the Ivy league. the percentage of the class who are admitted via early application.
Class of 2022
Brown 44.3%
Cornell 46.8%
Dartmouth 49.1%
Penn 53.7%
Princeton 60%
Yale 47%
Harvard 58%
*assumption that 100% of early admits matriculate, while you can assume that the numbers will be accurate for ED, the numbers for SCEA will be 90%+ and approaching 100% matriculation. At that rate HP fill at least half there class via SCEA.
Thanks @CU123. I realize that so many schools are taking so many kids during the early rounds, especially those with ED and SCEA.
The data I would like to see from U Chicago is the admit rate for the ED kids, preferable broken out by ED I and ED II. I think I saw an early number somewhere from them but it included EA, and that’s misleading. I would also like to see the RD rate broken out. For any school, not just Chicago, the overall admissions rate doesn’t tell the whole story.
@collegemomjam not sure if this got answered yet but the ED1 admit rate was probably around 10%. ED2 might have been 7-8%. These are my guesstimates.
Thanks @JBStillFlying what are you basing that on? Any idea what EA was? I can’t remember where I saw it, but I thought the only numbers I saw combined ED and EA, but maybe not.
You are correct that they reported a combined early admit rate of 7%. EA would probably be around 3-4% based on prior year estimates.
10% would be a really low ED rate. I think the Ivies that have ED are twice that, but they only have one round of ED so maybe that’s a factor. I still don’t know why they don’t publish it.
@collegemomjam I think your cutting this too fine, if @JBStillFlying numbers are reasonably accurate (and they are), why the interest in the exact numbers? Other then the knowledge, it won’t help anyone have a better chance then they already have. Curiosity maybe, but the real formula for admittance is ED1>ED2>(SC)EA>RD at virtually all schools with a few exceptions where you can change the greater than signs to equal signs. It’s a fairly useless exercise to try to extrapolate exact numbers which unless released by the university will never be perfect, and in my opinion not all that useful to begin with. It would in fact just verify what you already know.
As I previously posted, at an admitted student reception in January, we were told that they had 15,000 applicants for ED1 and EA, with a roughly 7% admit rate. No break down was given between the two. We will be attending another reception very soon, and if any new information is given, I will post it here.
My son is on the UChi waitlist for 2023 so I’ve been checking here to see if anyone has heard anything. He’s been accepted at several great schools but is hoping for good news.
In addition to ED, EA, ED2, there are also the students that were Z-listed in the prior year. I wonder how they account for them in the statistics?
All admit rates fall out of two sets of numbers: applications, and admissions. If the number of ED1 applications is 7,000 and the number admitted is 700, then the admit rate is 10%. I don’t think it’s unreasonable that ED1 applications went up to 7k this year if a ton of kids believe that ED1 is an ‘easier’ way to get into a top school. The large number of apparent ED1 rejections this year supports that hypothesis. Have always figured that EA applications would be around 8,000 with an admit rate of around 4%. Not sure why that would change this year since the admit rate for EA has been so low the past couple years. Any significant increase in early apps - like the 2k increase this year after a few years of stable numbers - would most likely be the ED1 pool.
@collegemomjam I look at it a little differently. I believe that a UChicago type student will always have a chance of acceptance and that type of student will have a much better chance than the % accepted in any given round. If it is your first choice and you file ED1 to UChicago, it allows you to put together a much more thorough application with essays and LORs that will be much more focused on how you and UChicago equal the world a better place.
When we visited 2 summers ago, Nondorf made the statement that he could pick his first class, and then eliminate it, pick his second and eliminate it, and pick his third and stick with it and end up with basically the same class as the first class. So what he is saying is that roughly 1,700 x 3 applicants are UChicago type students.
People are so focused on the following statistical fallacy. If the acceptance rate is 5.9%, I have a 5.9% chance of acceptance. That is not true. That would be true if every applicant was dropped into a hopper and 1,700 randomly applicants are picked. That is so not the case. There are UChicago students and there are not. The vast majority of the applicants are not and their chance of acceptance is near 0%. I suspect that UChicago type students have roughly a 33% chance of acceptance based on Nondorf’s quote above. However, I don’t think that is necessarily true either and all the UChicago type students aren’t selected by picking them out of a hat either. But there are reasons that this UChicago student was accepted and that one wasn’t. This one was picked by the track coach, that one is a son of a fireman. This one comes from a farm town in North Dakota.
So knowing this, how do you use the college application process to tell the story that you are indeed a UChicago student? How do you highlight what might be a “hook” in your application? I think the first step is deciding what one or two reach schools you want to apply to and put together an application that clearly tells that story. Did you tell your teachers that you really want to go to UChicago and that they “value intellectual curiosity, Could you find a way to weave an example of that in my LOR?” You can’t do that if you apply to 10-15 top schools as reaches, your teachers can’t write that many specific LORs. Did you deeply research the school to see if it does match you and then write an essay that shows how UChicago you are? You can’t do this well and still be a great HS student and have a life to research and write well an essay that says this to 10-15 reach schools. Regardless of the acceptance rate, if you do this (and you are a UChicago type student) you will have a strong chance to get in.
I agree with a lot of what you guys are saying…
@BrianBoiler I guess where I think it matters is for the the “UChicago type students” that you describe that have a 33% chance, which is probably a good guess. I think those are the very students that deserve more data so that they can decide if U Chicago is an ED school or not for them. I do NOT think that same student would have an equal chance ED vs. RD, I truly don’t. I don’t blame U Chicago for giving a preference to an ED applicant (or any other school that does this as well, which is most that offer it!). But I feel like they are being a little coy with their stats…just the fact alone that you remember Nondorf boasting about being able to fill the class three times…obviously their stats are important to them, and I feel like it’s a bit at the expense of the applicants, and it’s just adding to the college admissions craziness that seems to be at an all time high.
It is definitely NOT just Chicago that is playing the ED game…they are one of the more obvious examples with their recent addition of multiple application options, going test optional, not sending scores, free application, etc.
College admissions has gotten out of control…just the fact that we are having such a conversation is a perfect example of this. I feel like it’s time for the colleges to stop being so obsessed with their stats (and forgive me for not giving them the benefit of the doubt on this one…they are definitely obsessed with this, but it’s not just UChicago) and maybe take more of a Georgetown philosophy. I would personally like to see all school offer the same options…like all schools offer one round of ED and RD, and that’s it, for example. It will never happen and I suspect the craziness will just continue.
It’s really not the colleges that are obsessed with stats…it’s us.
@collegemomjam I think I look at it from the view point of the University and you are from the student. I believe that students exist for the university to accomplish its mission and you look at it that Universities exist to accomplish the student’s mission.
The Universities need students to accomplish the Universities goal of furthering the body of knowledge and making the world a better place. Students need universities to accomplish their goal of making their “world” a better place. Unfortunately, many students don’t understand that AOs are trying to accomplish the university’s mission and not simply picking the best students. When you apply with that knowledge, it makes you a better choice for the university.
Now, to your ED vs. RD rates for UChicago students, I agree that a UChicago type student will have a better acceptance chance as you go through the ED1 → EA → ED2 ->RD continuum. But, I don’t think it is as great as you suspect. Perhaps, if I really wanted to goto UChicago and I have no other hooks? Or a weak hook, I’d strongly consider ED1 (assuming ability to pay). However, I don’t believe that a UChicago type student has a 50% chance of acceptance at ED1 and a 5% at RD.
Here is my theory on why they don’t publish rates and it is the same reason that Stanford doesn’t. The more people who believe that ED1 is the only way to get in, the more potentially great UChciago students don’t apply in other rounds, thus limiting the pool of students for the next class. I’ve heard in discussions that UChicago is thinking about how to downplay the ever increasing SAT score as they fear great UChicago type students won’t apply because their score isn’t that high. I believe that is the reason behind the test optional method this year.
@collegemomjam I also don’t read Nondorfs comment as the first classes stats would equal the third classes stats. I read it as holistically, the great first class would equal the great third class.
May I suggest to not get your hopes high. I know it is difficult. Think about the places that want your son, not the places who waitlist him. Best of luck.
@collegemomjam that’s a fairly common quote about classes I think all of the top private schools have used it once or twice.