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<p>Wait, I don’t get it. Your argument seems to be that US News rankings have value because they correlate with graduation rates. OK, I’ll bite, graduation rates are important. But then why not look directly at graduation rates? After all, nothing correlates better with graduation rates than . . . graduation rates.</p>
<p>Here’s how the top 50 research universities would look, ranked by 6-year graduation rates.</p>
<p>1.[tie] Harvard, Yale 97
3. [tie] Princeton, Stanford, Columbia, Penn, Notre Dame 96
8. [tie] Brown, Dartmouth 95
10. [tie] Duke, Northwestern, Georgetown, UVA 94
14. [tie] MIT, Wash U, Cornell 93
17. [tie] Chicago, Johns Hopkins, Rice, Vanderbilt 92
21. [tie[ Boston College, Brandeis, William & Mary 91
24. [tie] Emory, UC Berkeley, UCLA, USC, Michigan, UNC Chapel Hill 90
30. Wake Forest 88
31. [tie] Caltech, Carnegie Mellon, Lehigh, Penn State 87
35. [tie] NYU, UC Davis, UC Santa Barbara 86
38. [tie] UCSD, UC Irvine, Yeshiva, Boston U 85
43. [tie] RPI, Florida 84
45. [tie] U Rochester, Wisconsin, UConn, Georgia 83
49. [tie] Illinois, U Maryland, Virginia Tech 82</p>
<p>Falling out of top 50: Georgia Tech 79, Case Western 78, U Miami 78, U Texas 81, U Washington 80. </p>
<p>Pretty bunched up at the top, really, from #1 to #24; fine gradations of difference from one step to the next, but a definite difference between #1 and #24. OK, I can see some value in that. But to me it suggests there’s much less difference along the top couple of dozen (or so) schools than all the agonizing over Bob Morse’s ordinal rankings is worth.</p>
<p>Now I would never suggest that anyone rely solely on graduation rates to choose a college, but it is an interesting and relevant criterion, and I would be somewhat skeptical of schools that don’t perform well on this measure (adjusting, perhaps, for things like engineering programs and co-op programs which tend to depress graduation rates). And it’s pretty clear most schools–the vast majority of them–perform quite poorly on this criterion. Most public flagships fall well below 80%, for example, but the top 5–UC Berkeley, UCLA, UVA, Michigan, and UNC Chapel Hill–stand head and shoulders above the rest.</p>
<p>But I don’t need to rely on the overall US News ranking as a flawed proxy for graduation rates. I can just look at the graduation rates themselves, which are much more revealing, not to mention more accurate than some half-a**ed proxy ranking.</p>