Full approval may convince some of the hesitant, but a large percentage of the remaining unvaccinated people are those who are strongly opposed to getting vaccinated, so full approval is unlikely to change their minds about it.
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Yes, there are left-leaning antivaxxers, but most seem to be right-leaning these days, since party affiliation is the strongest demographic correlate to getting vaccinated or not (Republicans have the lowest vaccination rates and the highest âdefinitely notâ percentage).
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If weâre talking about NY Times columnists, I agree with Ezra Klein:
The conventional wisdom is that there is some argument, yet unmade and perhaps undiscovered, that will change the minds of the roughly 30 percent of American adults who havenât gotten at least one dose. There probably isnât. The unvaccinated often hold their views strongly, and many are making considered, cost-benefit calculations given how they weigh the risks of the virus, and the information sources they trust to inform them of those risks. For all the exhortations to respect their concerns, there is a deep condescension in believing that weâre smart enough to discover or invent some appeal they havenât yet heard.
If policymakers want to change their minds, they have to change their calculations by raising the costs of remaining unvaccinated, the benefits of getting vaccinated, or both. If they canât do that, or wonât, the vaccination effort will most likely remain stuck â at least until a variant wreaks sufficient carnage to change the calculus.
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I am super curious why this was flagged. ??? Itâs a link to an article. I am from MO. I know for a fact this is happening. (See my comments about what I saw when I was there a month ago way upthread. )
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Itâs low hanging fruit - it will convince some - itâs a forgone conclusion - and itâs long overdue.
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Re: âTo reach herd immunity, we need a different approach.â
If the belief is that the unvaccinated are strongly opposed, then it seems that the non-authoritarian approach would be to let the virus go through the unvaccinated until enough have had it to have immunity from natural infection. Yes, that means additional sickness (including long haul) and death in that group, but that would be the personal consequences of their personal choices.
The difficult part about making this policy decision is how to protect the medically vulnerable who either do not have a choice (cannot get vaccinated for medical reasons) or do not gain good immunity from vaccination, and ensure that hospitals are not overloaded with voluntarily unvaccinated COVID-19 patients that they cannot serve others with various (not necessarily COVID-19-related) medical problems.
Please correct me if my numbers are wrong, but Google says that Spanish Flu killed approximately .64% of the US population. Wouldnât we have to get to approximately 2 million dead to have a comparable percentage? We are currently at about 612,000. That means weâd need to see three times the current number dead from Covid before reaching a comparable proportion. Can we really expect to reach that number?
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On that note getting to herd immunity in the United States doesnât solve the whole problem. New variants can still break out in other countries at that point and enter here just like Delta did. World-wide herd immunity is at best a long way awayâŠ
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Re: herd immunity
Because B.1.617.2 / Delta is so contagious (R0 of 5-8), a very high level of immunity (80-88%) is needed for herd immunity. Since neither vaccination nor natural infection gives immunity in 100% of people (probably 80-90% overall for both), that means that close to 100% of the population must be either vaccinated or previously infected to reach herd immunity.
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$100 doesnât get you much in NYC.
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One thing anyone comparing numbers should keep in mind is the difference in medicine between then and now. If we had 1918âs medical abilities I feel pretty certain Covid would have equaled or topped the percentages.
Thankfully medical knowledge is better now for both treatments and vaccines. Since the vaccines are out there, should we continue spending the money to treat those who chose not to get them? Itâs a huge expense and hassle for most hospitals, not to mention putting health care workers at risk if they have breakthrough cases.
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Because Delta is so contagious the vaccine reluctant seem to have a choice to either get a covid vaccine, or be vaxed by Delta. Unfortunately, the under 12s right now are in the unvaccinated group not by choice.
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Physicians take an oath to treat sick people, regardless of the patientâs beliefs, though. I do foresee some physicians not allowing covid unvaccinated to be part of their practices, not dissimilar to some pediatricians who wonât see unvaccinated kids. Not sure we will get to the place where health insurance refuses to pay for covid treatment, but I see that thrown around by the media as a potential stick.
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My wife started doing research on the ânormalâ antivaxxers pre-COVID, and this indeed described at least half (or more) of those antivaxxers.
However, the COVID antivaxxers are a very different crowd, and are part of the COVID-denial movement. COVID denial is indeed far more prevalent on the Right than on the Left in the USA (in other countries it maybe different). They are against getting vaccinated against COVID because they believe that COVID is a hoax. This COVID denial movement started long before there was a vaccine against COVID.
Rather than getting their news from sources like âNatural Newsâ the way that the âoriginalâ antivaxxers got their ânewsâ, these people get their news from OAN, from Russian fake news sources, Iranian fake news sources, sources like Infowars, and others.
Some of the older antivaxx ânewsâ sources have started repeating and amplifying these stories, of course.
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The medically vulnerable (which seems to be a small number given everything Iâve read) absolutely should be protecting themselves. We donât have enough data yet for them to even feel safe around vaccinated folks. I have vaxxed friends who arenât even medically vulnerable that are hospitalized with Covid. I canât imagine any of the people in that group will be able to let their guard down for a long time, unfortunately.
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The simplest path remains vaccine requirements by government and business. That way people still have a choice but it comes with a price. You want to work or eat at a restaurant? Show that youâre vaccinated. Want to work or drink at a bar? Show that youâre vaccinated. Want to get back to free lunches on your Google campus? Get vaccinated.
Trying to combat misinformation in any of its forms is just to slow. Iâm not saying to ignore misinformation, it should be combated as well, but thatâs a long term fight.
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I donât think physicians and hospitals should stop treating unvaxxed patients, but I DO think insurance companies should have no-vax as an exclusion for coverage on Covid treatment (with exceptions of course for well documented medical reasons not to get one). And I think that there should be some kind of law making it impossible to get a medical bankruptcy declared because of Covid treatment costs for people who were unvaxxed after a certain date. If they can do it with student loans, they can do it with medical bills for unvaxxed people.
Our insurance premiums are all going to skyrocket in the next couple of years because of Covid as it is. I am not in the mood to pay for medical treatment for people who unvaxxed at this point. Freedom and personal responsibility, right?
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As a New Yorker, I disagree. And as a therapist with many low-income clients, I especially disagree.
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