Yes, really wish regulators would move along on full fda approval, which is supposed to happen “soon.” It will allow those of us most vulnerable and vaxed long ago to get boosters ordered by our MDs.
Hopefully, FDA will approve it soon, and before the school year starts.
Changing advice based on new information, is not “backtracking”, nor is it “flipflopping”, it is what actual scientists do when they get new information.
I wish that people here got their information about science from scientists, not books and movies written by scientific ignoramuses.
Science works like this:
- Synthesize information => hypothesis
- Collect more information, add to synthesis => modified hypothesis
- Rinse and repeat.
People somehow believe that it works:
- Scientist who looks like movie star has a brilliant brilliant idea out of nowhere (or sparse data) that is correct => state reality
- Drama happens => movie star scientist’s reality is shown to be The Truth, and all data heretofore agree with movie star scientist’s stated reality.
I’m sorry, but #2 is not how it works*. All the criticism of Fauci that I have read is based on the fiction-based assumption that he, and the rest of the virologists, should have known EXACTLY what this virus was, how it spreads, and how to treat it when it first appeared.
Only pseudoscientists, pseudodoctors, and other such con artists or cranks will tell you that they know exactly what a new disease is, and that they know exactly how to treat it, as soon as it appears, and they will be, almost invariably, either lying or delusional.
Unfortunately, because they believe that science is like it looks on TV, many people will believe anybody who tells them that they know the Truth, and then continue believing those people, no matter what facts come out.
Unless you actually have proof that the vaccine release was delayed until after the elections, that is yet another conspiracy theory, and deserves to be put into the pile alongside “Bill Gates Created The Virus To Get Rid Of Trump And Control The World”.
The major proof that this is a conspiracy theory which is false is that the announcement on the vaccine being ready, and the decision on when vaccinations would start had ZERO to do with Fauci, ZERO to do the the CDC. It was Pfizer and the FDA.
Unless you are claiming that Fauci is controlling Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, AstroZenaca, AND the FDA, the timing of the vaccinations has little to do with him.
Just because Trump was hoping that there would be announcements of the success of the vaccines in time to help him with the elections, and that didn’t happen, and just Fauci was critical of Trump’s handling of the pandemic, does not mean that Fauci was somehow pulling strings behind the scenes to start vaccinations a month after the elections.
People in power always manage to skirt the rules, but that is not politics but power.
That’s not hypocrisy, but a political leader doing a good job at getting people to ignore their blunders. The history of the world is absolutely chock-full of leaders who are lauded for the stuff they did, and the it is discovered just how amny bad things they did.
I mean, how many years was Andrew Jackson celebrated as a Great Leader, while the Trail Of Tears was ignored? At least with Cuomo, the people in charge of the award were not aware of the nursing home blunder and cover up.
- Technology sometimes does work like in the movies, though. Some engineer has brilliant idea which is ignored, and then discovered to be brilliant, but that is because technology is based on existing tools, and industry is reluctant to do an overhaul.
However, Fauci is a scientist (even though he’s an MD), but the vaccination industry is technology. Physicians are also generally not scientists, but technologists.
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Is the methodology described below by Dr Fauci consistent with epidemiology or social science? He is basing recommendations and informing the public based on polling data. I don’t question his intentions, but he has not stuck to a scientific approach.
“When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent … Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, “I can nudge this up a bit,” so I went to 80, 85. We need to have some humility here … We really don’t know what the real number is. I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 percent. But, I’m not going to say 90 percent.”
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Hollywood is so fictional, but they’re good at convincing people it’s real life. It’s amazing how much “stars” can do in 15 minutes or how there’s never traffic and always parking spots when they need them. Even when they cover “true” stories they almost always fictionalize so much and end up convincing so many people of an alternate history, it’s sad.
Then when it comes to a true deal like Covid, expectations are the way too high for reality. But those who watch enough Hollywood know how it should have happened (after seeing more of the story, of course, not looking forward).
mRNA vaccines are in this category!
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No one knows exactly what the hurdle is to get herd immunity. It’s derived from epidemiological models which make all sorts of assumptions that are imprecise, constantly evolving, and worse of all, depend on human behaviors. Dr. Fauci interprets the data and results from these differing models as good as anyone, but he is limited by the primitive nature of the science.
I find Dr. Fauci to be the most careful in his choice of words. I don’t think he misled anyone, other than those who chose to misinterpret his words.
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I must have missed the part about the government “locking people in their homes.” I went about my business from day 1, masked when it became apparent that this was appropriate and double masked pretty early on when it became apparent lay people would not be able to purchase true N95s. There were certainly businesses that closed down, but at least where I lived, there were only recommendations to reduce moving about to only the most important activities. Not once was I ever prevented from leaving my house.
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I think your words are perfect and he would have been well served to preface his comments similarly.
“Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, “I can nudge this up a bit,” so I went to 80, 85.”
“Nudging it up” based on “surveys” sounds far less scientific and more arbitrary and hurt his credibility in my opinion. I don’t think he is a liar or did it deliberately however, unfortunately he was actually being honest.
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Thank you for your excellent post. I don’t understand why so many people are unable to grasp the idea that COVID-related advice will inevitably evolve as (a) new data become availability and (b) conditions on the ground change (including the emergency of new viral variants).
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I agree that he should have handled it differently. On the other hand, I think it’s safe to say that most of the public figures who have lambasted Fauci over such missteps have orders of magnitude less credibility than Fauci (because they’ve repeatedly spread outright false information, touted conspiracy theories, etc.).
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There is no federal law against private businesses mandating vaccines, and the Justice Dept has also issued an opinion that it’s legal. The EEOC has also said it’s legal. Plenty of business have put mandates in place and some have already fired non-compliant employees, who in turn have lost lawsuits.
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Unlike in Chile, where my niece was NOT allowed to leave her apartment except rarely.
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Yup. And today the Pentagon ordered that all active service people be vaccinated. Must be vaxed by Sept 15, or sooner if full approval is granted prior to then (which is sorta kinda weird but…)
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I agree with your statement and personally find Fauci credible, but I am vaxed and not the audience that needs to be convinced.
Unfortunately the approximately 50% of our country that don’t find him credible need to be persuaded. Calling them stupid and or having someone who has had “missteps” in communicating won’t work. Our leaders (particularly from the right) need to find a more transparent and patriotic (societal) message that will compel people to participate in my opinion.
There are increasingly fewer persuadable people out there. Messaging will not fix this.
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It is likely that, for many, the only thing that will be persuasive is seeing someone close to them have a serious encounter with the virus itself.
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My daughter has been in her in-person high school classes for a week now (AZ has no mask requirements, no vaccine requirements), and a recent quote from Dr. Scott Gottlieb rings so true:
“I can’t think of a business right now that would put 30 unvaccinated people in a confined space without masks and keep them there for the whole day. No business would do that responsibly. And yet that’s what we’re going to be doing in some schools.”
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I will concede you are likely right. Unfortunately I don’t think mandates will work either with such a large proportion of people unwilling to take the vaccine and the likelihood that a booster requirement is likely forthcoming.
We already see government intervention in mask mandates in FL and TX. Resistance to forced vaccinations will become regional and further divide the country. Fake cards are now everywhere. People will lie, fight and resist and become more intransigent if they feel compelled.
As a society I fear the privacy implications of a government that dictates what you must put in your body (like a vaccine) and or one that dictates your healthcare decisions.
I don’t have a solution but I fear further polarization.
I don’t fear further polarization. I believe the difference of opinions and other divisions have been here for a long time. They change/evolve with the passage of time and awareness. In my opinion, the global Covid pandemic is just exacerbating the rhetoric and heightening emotions.
I believe in “scientia potentia est”. Knowledge is power. I don’t subscribe to fear-mongering.
It saddens me to see and hear about suffering that is preventable.
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Don’t even have to look as far away as Chile—nephew in Toronto was only allowed to leave his apartment for groceries or medication.
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Unfortunately, there’s a core group of people in this country who aren’t going to be persuaded, because they believe in one, or perhaps many, of the conspiracies related to COVID and/or vaccines. This group is large enough that I don’t think we’ll ever get to herd immunity.
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