I did point that out and while vaccination may slow transmission it’s a sliding scale based on a number of variables including how “old” the vaccination is, comorbidies of the individual etc. and that will ebb and flow over time. Similar to the flu vaccine there will be those that will keep current with their COVID vaccines and those that won’t.
As to your other point we will see how it all evolves in the end because as of now there are billions of unvaccinated people worldwide (a fully vaccinated US won’t fix COVID by itself) and it’s questionable that even a good percentage will get vaccinated or keep up with their vaccinations in the near future so variants are likely. Europe is experiencing another COVID surge right now.
Personally I’m interested in how New Zealand and Australia fare once their populations are fully vaccinated and they open their borders (if they ever do). It will provide a good look at how highly vaccinated populations interact with the wider unvaccinated global community.
I’m vaccinated but I only feel marginally safer around vaccinated people, especially because I know numerous people who have had breakthrough COVID cases. I don’t eat indoors, haven’t been to a movie theater, concert or broadway show since preCovid and have flown twice because it was unavoidable.
I agree with all of your statements and one can go further, as I did, by focusing on transmission to and from animals. But, so long as 1) the probability of infection is higher for the unvaccinated, 2) the probability of unvaccinated folks infecting others once infected is higher, and 3) the expected cost of medical treatment/hospitalization treatment is higher for the unvaccinated, the unvaccinated are imposing a cost on others (both vaccinated and unvaccinated) as a result of their choice. You need to include all three in your analysis to evaluate the effect of the choice to be unvaccinated on others. If I am not mistaken, I think you have been addressing just the first.
You and I will be paying for the extra treatment and the extra cases caused by their choices.
We have eaten indoors in places that check for vaccination (in Canada and Italy, but don’t do this frequently – and did it with a doctor friend who needs to ensure he is healthy to work), have not gone to movies or concerts, have skipped indoor wedding receptions (and attended others when they followed our suggestions to have a table for outside dining that expanded when others knew there was a choice). I have been flying. My airline friends tell me that the planes themselves are quite safe (great HEPA filtration) except for the people around you. Flying to Canada or Europe is better because everyone is vaccinated and has been tested within the last 48 or 72 hours. We try not to eat or drink when folks on the plane near us are doing so. We have eaten in airport lounges, but there has been a lot of space and with no other people nearby. I don’t think we ever return to pre-covid normal.
I have been trying to understand this “phenomenon” why some are much more fearful while vaccinated than others and I think it comes down to a few factors. I think that those who have had a lot of trauma caused by Covid-19 and the pandemic “lifestyle” of the last 19 months are not willing to take any risks and can not fathom why others would not think the same way. The toll that the pandemic has taken on our medical personal and resources is another important factor. The other major factor that I see is that we have a segment of our population who are not eligible to be vaccinated, and are not as good at masking and social distancing (little kids).
The fact that most scientists believe that Covid-19 is here to stay as an endemic plague just means that we all have to individually protect ourselves. We still have at least 10 states that are not 50% vaccinated while being less likely to enact mandates and it is a “pipe dream” that we will ever get to herd immunity without natural immunity and the vaccinated together. We should be testing for antibodies to see those most at risk and to give an exemption to those who refuse to get vaccinated, but have some protection. I also believe that future treatments for those who get serious cases of Covid-19 are an important key to push the pandemic into our endemic phase and hopefully return life to Pre-Covid times.
Same. But we are much safer around vaccinated people than around unvaccinated people. Which is one reason why vaccinated people want to have even less contact with the anti-vaxxers. Another is the anti-vaxxers are generally less concerned with taking simple precautions.
And I know numerous unvaccinated people who have DIED from COVID. But anecdotes aren’t helpful. I look at statistics and realize how effective the vaccines are. It’s not rocket science.
Re mixing with the unvaxxed: well, this is a very real problem for me. I’m special-dispensation remote at a university job where there’s no vax mandate, no mask mandate, and a substantial proportion of students are likely to be unvaxxed, also not real bright or any more thoughtful than your average undergrad. While I’m vaccinated, vaccines aren’t magical, and if you test them by hanging around in very high concentrations of virus, you may well regret it. Where do you find high concentrations of virus? Among congregated unvaxxed who behave irresponsibly in many aspects of their lives. So: no. Likewise, if someone’s coming to my house to do work, I want to reduce the odds that my house is getting puffed full of virus as far as I can. So bring your vax card and wear a mask. And I will too, because for all you know, I’m asymptomatic-infected.
Y’all, we had training for this in the AIDS days. Show your tests before you get busy, and strap on a jimmie hat anyway.
"Experts say choosing an mRNA booster is a particularly good idea for women under age 50, who are at risk for a very rare but severe blood clotting disorder called “thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome,” after receiving the J&J vaccine.
Young men might want to take the opposite route. Men ages 16 to 29 who receive either mRNA vaccine face an increased risk of a heart inflammation condition called myocarditis, as Fauci told ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday. Vaccine-induced cases of myocarditis tend to be mild and often resolve on their own — but if you’re concerned, you can avoid that risk."
Seriously? How about Tucker Carlson and Laura Ingraham? Their rhetoric goes well beyond anti-mandate. And Fox repeatedly has on guests pushing all sorts of anti-vax nonsense. Regular guest Candice Owens was given a platform on Fox to compare efforts of those working to get children vaccinated with child predators and Hitler Youth.
For a short period of time, if that. Places that have done it already have found very few are actually willing to give up their jobs. They say they are going to, but when it comes down to it, it’s a small number.
That small number could even return when they find they can’t just get another job if all places required it.
I serious doubt the sky will fall in the meantime. There may be some issues, because most jobs have some importance to them, but not sky falling issues.
I’m going to predict that for my husband’s company, that there will be more retirements than usual because of the vaccine requirements. At least in his division, many of the workers are near their retirement age (which is 55 to access their pension and retiree health insurance) and that some will retire rather than comply and get a vaccine.
I personally think that for some younger employees, they aren’t as strident and more in the just haven’t got around to it. They’ll get a vaccine as this is the push that they maybe have been anticipating.
It’s going to be much harder with their contractors. Many are small businesses and that will be difficult. To even police.
I think the company has a no vaccine, no job. It’s too hard and expensive to even think of weekly testing and trying to figure out who’s vaccinated and who’s not.
They are contracting an outside firm to go through any medical or religious exemptions.
My husband thinks this is an easy decision for him as a manager. No middle ground and no negotiation on his part.
I wonder if any companies will change their rules about retirement health insurance benefits. That would make it less attractive. My employer - local government - jacked up the rates so much that it was higher than most people’s pensions. So those who retired earlier but still hadn’t reached Medicare age were screwed. They couldn’t afford our insurance and too young for Medicare. And this was before obamacare so most were too sick with pre-existing conditions to qualify for anything else. I felt terribly for them. And it was done without notice or warning. Nothing published to the current employees or even the media. You had to go and read council meeting minutes to find out.
It might be economically sound to raise the premiums for a group that chooses to retire rather than get vaccinated. There is a higher probability of high medical expenses. But, I suspect the cost would be spread among all retirees.
I agree with @roycroftmom and believe that certain mandates will back down (some have already moved back dates) or not be set at all, because employees in certain critical need areas have not backed down as much as needed before the initial deadlines and would cause great harm to the average American. One such industry is the Trucking industry, where they have decided to make most Truck drivers exempt (despite the fact that some cross state lines), because we already have a critical shortage that strain already struggling supply chains. We will see how it all plays out, but businesses and Federal, State, and local governments will make some exceptions in spite of any public health concerns because there may not be much of a choice.