Vaccine reluctance & General COVID Discussion

I had actually looked into this issue. If I remember correctly:

  1. measles contagion became an issue anew. It was traced to true antivaxx families, some fundamentalists in Western France who refused to send their kids to school due to a vaccine requirement, and some travellers especially those located in the Gard area (cultural issues). True antivaxx families are actually fewer than elsewhere due to the vaccine requirement to enroll children at school. (Regular, free pediatrician visits and 11 vaccines are mandated; parents can be brought to court for endangerment of a minor if they don’t. The same mandate also exists in Italy for instance.)
    In short : Very marginal true anti vaxx.
    However
  2. vaccine hesitancy overall was widespread, due to a bad vaccine rollout including well-known side effects a few years ago + a big fail about 10 years ago with avian flu.
    This was reasonable hesitancy, along the lines of fool me once/fool me twice.
    However once the covid vaccines were proved safe and monitored, most of that hesitancy was relieved.

(I would be interested in the NPR report if you find it, to listen to retrospectively)

According to this article, Newark’s vaccination rate in September 2021 was 72 percent among those 12 and older.

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And Brooklyn reports a 41% vax rate for its 10211 zip code. There are variations by area, obviously.

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I said I didn’t want to compare the US with Bulgaria because the US is similar to Western Europe.
Bulgaria’s situation is similar to Mexico’s.
Average annual income is around $4,000 v. Poorest US state Mississipppi average around $43,000 for instance.
I guess I’ll repeat: an issue in the US isn’t the US as a whole but specific geographic areas. I don’t know what can be done to convince people in sub 60% areas. Right now the US has concentrated pockets of people who oppose the vaccine. They die at a higher rate, contaminate others, incur huge health costs that they may not be able to bear and which insurances will spread to us all. Their children will suffer tremendously.
Why are some areas in the US behaving like developing countries when, unlike these countries’citizens, we have access to free vaccines and education?

10211 is not in Brooklyn. 11211 includes a very large and insular Hasidic Jewish community that has resisted vaccination from the beginning and continues to do so.

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It seems to me vaccine reluctance has the greatest correlation with the level of education. The less educated population is more susceptible to believing in conspiracy theories rather than sciences.

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The stats can be manipulated to show whatever one wants them to show. If I dig down to a single zip + 4 code in my town, I can show an area with 0% vax rate (6 adults live/work there, not a one is vaccinated), in a town that is over 80% vaxxed.

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You’re right.
That’s why I’m looking at county-level and equivalent + 18+ only in areas that are similar economically = Large numbers and people who choose or dont choose to get the vaccines in relatively similar circumstances.
Not zip codes, not mixing LEDCs and MEDCs, etc.
Trying to keep comparisons interesting and valid for the topic of vaccine reluctance (topic of thread), wondering about a specificity of the US.

You are not familiar with Bulgaria, nor its renowned mathematics education system.
And while I share your concern about the unvaxxed, NJ covid rates right now are far worse than Mississippi’s. Facts matter.

What do you mean “addressed as such”? Are you saying the reasons for vax reluctance are the same in all low vax communities around the globe, and somehow a global entity (the WHO maybe?) should be in charge of getting the unvaxed vaxed? I don’t see that going over too well in the American heartland.

Vax “reluctance” is the wrong word for what is going on now in US low vax communities. It is full on vax rejection. I don’t think the US vax rejection phenomenon, which is uniquely political at its core and not driven by economics the same way it is in poorer countries, would be improved with the same approaches that would work in Bulgaria or South Africa.

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Outright vax rejection is common in Africa as well. In many countries, actually.

Facts do matter. But when the “facts” are cherry picked zip codes or misleading time-framed whuddabout comparisons, they matter a lot less.

That is why I rejected the county analysis above and questioned the value of looking at sub-areas to begin with.
While I understand it is comforting to attribute the covid problem to unvaxxed rednecks in the South, that agenda is not wholly accurate nor will it help us effectively address the current spike in the Northeast or the likely future spike everywhere due to Omicron
My suggestions would be to limit air and train travel to the vaxxed, everywhere, as that is how covid spreads, at least at first. Rapid approval of the Novavax alternative vax would help too. Of course, none of this may matter depending upon Omicron

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Facts matter, and the divide discussed in NPR analysis is relevant and real.

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Correlation v causation. The outcomes may be similar, but the causes are different in the US v Africa.

From your comment above, your worldwide solution is travel bans only for the unvaxed (enforced by ?), a newly fast-approved vax (those have worked so well to convince the reluctant in the past, right?), and declaring nothing we do matters anyway because of Omicron. I agree that it is a worldwide problem, but a worldwide solution this is not.

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I would characterize the NPR piece as an opinion, but maybe we can compromise and call them quasi-facts. LOL

Extending my earlier point that the NPR assertion of misinformation causing antivax attitudes, the real and relevant point is that they should not have said this. Because, as we have seen, attacking the “misinformation” and the outlets where this information is conveyed destroys trust amongst the people you’re trying to reach. It’s censorship.

Trust is also cultivated over long periods of time, and to the extent that one believes Republicans are the root of this, maybe those people shouldn’t have hurled personal and nasty insults toward that population for the many years leading up to the pandemic, canceling them for the way they vote.

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The divide discussed in the NPR analysis is factual. It exists.

Criticizing people and organizations for lying to and misleading people is not censorship.

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I agree that limiting air/train/Greyhound travel to vaxxed people would help. So would requiring masks everywhere indoors and mandating air purifiers or a few minutes of regularly open windows.

Right now, vaccine reluctance or rejection by people who were not previously antivaxx is not homogenously balanced in the US and there’s nothing equivalent in Western Europe.
In a way, it’s sad but telling that comparisons are made to developing countries or non G8/non permanentG20 countries.
I honestly never thought we’d have to use this kind of comparison, although I’m not sure why it’s being made. To help improve?
I also don’t think we can color vaccine reluctance and rejection everywhere in the same color, nor would the same approach work.

To give another example: Guadeloupe (a French territory in the Carribean that’s similar to Puerto Rico?) has been rioting for a while. It sounded at first that it was all against the vaccine mandate for health care workers. No matter whether that mandate was a pretext or a motivating factor, it has spread to full-on riots, with roadblocks, extortion, etc. Some criminals saw a business open in kidnapping Health Care workers. The roots are totally unlike what you can see in the US or what the riots in the Netherlands were about.
First, the French government blithely and knowingly let the people of Guadeloupe be poisoned by a chemical, chlordecon, that made producing bananas efficient and inexpensive (at the cost of the workers’ health). After assuring them the product was safe, close to 30 years after knowing it wasn’t, people in Guadeloupe had reasons to mistrust the government telling them vaccines are safe. Then, the last straw: yet another water “cut”: tens of thousands of houses either got foul, non drinkable water at the tap for the umpteenth time, or got no water at all. Like everywhere in the developed world, covid’s impact on the economy has led to inflation and hasn’t stabilized back yet (it’s going but when it comes to water, waiting is not an option), which means costs are high, and bottled water is especially expensive to start with. Everything else, all the grievances and problems kept quiet since the beginning of the pandemic exploded then: monopolies, specific taxes the island pays, the lack of infrastructure, the shortage of stable jobs, educational underachievement. The Minister for Overseas Districts went and made things worse. (He basically told them, “stop all violence right now and advocate for autonomy”, which infuriated the people whose main issue was “drinking water” since it didn’t respond to their vital, immediate, primary concern, and of course didn’t calm the rioters. I understand his point but telling rioters to stop violence without offering something to start a negociation- even a bad-faith one-, and thinking “independence” is a legit way to barter with thugs, who, we all know, have IR degrees, was really stupid.)
So, you’re seeing “covid riots” in Guadeloupe but covid issues there are nothing like covid issues in the US nor like the “covid riots” in the Netherlands.

Want to hear about more mandates than Germany and Austria?
Italy doesn’t have a mandate but is starting a two-tiered system; crowded indoor places will be reserved to covid negative/vaccinated people.
All of it is to keep Delta in check and contain Omicron, and thus save the Christmas holidays, which typically run Dec 24-jan 1 or Dec 24-Jan 5. St Nicholas is already being cancelled in various places and those unvaxxed, who carry a higher viral load, are considered responsible.
The basic reasoning is the same as for “You’re free to get drunk, not to get drunk and drive”. Your freedom ends when it endangers others.
And I’m not trying to say the US has a monopoly on weird individual or collective decisions:
In France, which is about 2-3 weeks behind Germany in its 5th wave, last week Emmanuel Macron’s education minister lifted some mitigating measures in primary schools. It’s so bad that a usually neutral doctor’s publication has called him irresponsible, incidence rate is reaching 1,000 in some areas, and everyone’s afraid of what’s going to happen because all the unvaxxed little kids go home and contaminate everyone but their parents don’t want to keep them home, of course. The “national parents’ union” (FCPE) representative is asking for “stronger measures to keep schools open” but the minister of education hasn’t really discussed the ideas of HEPA filters/air purifiers or not packing 28 3rd graders in a space originally planned for 24.

So, sure, there’s vaccine reluctance, but its manifestations are definitely cultural.
In addition, it sounds like denial to me to say there’s nothing specific to American vaccine reluctance/rejection. This is real and we can’t get a handle on the problem if we don’t admit it exists.

County-level rather than country-level is more useful because in the US, the average is misleading. Some areas have remarkably high vaccination rates whereas others have worriyingly low vaccination rates, in a way that is unique to a “rich”, “G8” country (less pc than MEDC but perhaps clearer?)
Note that I listed 3 counties, in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Mississippi because I did NOT mean “rednecks in the South”.

Also, I find the concept of “waves” useful: we see the wave start in the East, grow and curl, crash, and then it’s flat again, till the next wave comes.

The trouble with our current version of political tribalism, though, is that people identify by where they get their news. People hear attacks on their news sources as attacks on them. It is pretty hard, if not impossible, to get people to change where they get their information. You can point out the bias and inaccuracies (and let’s be honest, they are in mainstream media, too, though not to the same extent), and it won’t change anyone’s minds about who they should listen to.

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Considering that “mainstream media” includes a lot of social media and cable television news, all of which are heavy with opinions (as opposed to more neutral reporting of facts), it is not surprising that most people see lots of bias and inaccuracies.

The Changing TV News Landscape | Pew Research Center shows the opinion versus reporting percentage on cable news networks in 2012. It would not be surprising if the overall opinion-heaviness were greater now.

Of course, social media is even more opinion heavy.