I live in a place where we did the 15 days and then we proceeded with life. It happens to also be a place with an older population. Most of us have had it both go arounds. Our hospitalization and death numbers are equivalent to the rest of the country, even though our masking is and has been nonexistent, our vaccine rate is low, and our population is old. I am not promoting or condoning this, (I don’t need the shade), but we all find it interesting.
4 Likes
My area in PA is about 50% wearing masks indoors . As a mask wearer myself, I think at this point in time it takes a lot of cheek to go up to someone and ask them to wear a mask properly, like someone upthread did to a child with his mother present. Im over that nonsense. Some guy in Trader Joes was doing that and I found it obnoxious.
Also, the irony of people applauding Neil Young, who has a history of homophobic comments regarding AIDS.
7 Likes
Sure, but you could have variolated yourself during a time when the infection rate and hospital rate was lower. Did you choose to do that, or did you try to postpone your exposure until after vaccination?
The most interesting thing about this study is the fact that it hasn’t been reported by the NY Times or CNN, despite the Johns Hopkins pedigree.
10 Likes
Not sure how you define avoidance, @ucbalumnus. I traveled by plane several times. I dined out sometimes, though I never have often before or after covid. I lived with a covid positive spouse. I lived with a very socially active teen ( who never tested positive). I wore masks inside when expected or requested. In short, I tried to respect public health practices while still continuing my life.
2 Likes
https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf is the study paper.
One of the three authors is Steve H. Hanke, who “is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise. He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute, a contributor at National Review, a well-known currency reformer, and a currency and commodity trader.”
The other two authors are economists in Denmark and Sweden.
I.e. “the Johns Hopkins pedigree” is not from medicine or public health that JHU is most known for.
7 Likes
The director of the Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Public Health and the study of Business Enterprise would qualify as an expert for most people.
5 Likes
Even experts’ work needs to be peer reviewed to qualify as rigorous science.
4 Likes
No doubt. But much appears in popular press well before peer review
2 Likes
Interesting conclusion made by the authors of this Lancet paper, referenced here:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00172-6/fulltext
1 Like
I do not see that JHU profs’ opinion paper submitted for peer review. Also, here is what the authors state:
“ The Studies in Applied Economics series is under the general direction of Prof. Steve H. Hanke, Founder and Co-Director of The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise (hanke@jhu.edu). The views expressed in each working paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the institutions that the authors are affiliated with.”
Re: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00172-6/fulltext
That lower levels of trust were associated with worse outcomes should not really be a surprise. Anything requiring large scale societal cooperation, particularly if there are some personal costs involved, depends on high levels of societal trust.
From the paper:
This is a sobering assessment from a Danish researcher. I don’t think he was a co-author on the Lancer paper.
———————————————————
Michael Bang Petersen, a professor at Aarhus University, said the study’s findings fit into his understanding of how a high-trust country such as Denmark responded to the crisis, but his own research on falling levels of trust in countries amid the crisis left him with a tragic conclusion.
The pandemic has “eroded trust in the government,” Bang Petersen said. “It actually seems as if the pandemic has worsened the problem that this study identified.”
From: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/01/trust-lancet-covid-study/
1 Like
I live in a state (WA) that was the first hit with covid transmission and deaths, had strict and somewhat enforced lockdown and mask mandates. Our outcomes, as measured by covid deaths/million population are better than 46 other states. The stats in my town, where masking and lockdown compliance were comparatively high even for our state, are even better than the state average.
11 Likes
I’m reading ‘Viral - the Search for the Origin of Covid-19’. Let’s just say…it is a trust eroder.
While I am glad for you, joining you in the top 6 are places as different as Puerto Rico and Utah. Texas has better numbers ( fewer deaths per capita) than Connecticut; Florida is better than Massachusetts. It is perplexing at best and difficult to determine cause and effect
1 Like
Very, very, interesting at the least.
Puerto Rico, like USVI, is very adamant about both masking to go inside anywhere. Vaccines too for PR. This according to my son and DIL who were there “scouting” in August and are there living now.
Both places really put a lot of the US to shame with how seriously they are taking this virus.
But we can’t look at states in the US. In my state, PA, we have places like Philly that care quite a bit and places like where I live where people don’t, and many never have. Looking at a map of PA since vaccines have been available, places like mine have done a ton worse than places like Philly (per capita). Vax rates differ some, but mask wearing and similar differs a ton. Philly had the problem NYC, etc, had at the beginning. So little was known then - for treatment, no vaccines, didn’t know about masks, etc. I expect the majority of their bad numbers are from that time period.
So much is known now, that is, for anyone willing to look at the data.
Regarding the NYT, their daily emails talk both about how some people unfortunately underestimate the danger (mainly unvaxxed) and how others unfortunately overestimate it (mainly vaxxed with boosters).
It’s a big part of what shapes what we’re willing to do - trying to pick our path using data out there. Vaxxed, boosted, and totally willing to wear masks if in situations where it might help (or just plain asked of us).
1 Like
No doubt there are many future doctoral dissertations to explore what mitigation measures worked and didn’t work, which vax incentives were effective and were not, etc.
What is surprising to me is that we will need those deeply researched studies. The answers really are not readily apparent at all.
3 Likes
Utah is an interesting case. The governor imposed no lockdowns or mask mandates, but during the earlier part of the pandemic businesses generally followed each other’s example and required masks for entering, as did the two largest religious congregations (LDS and Catholic). People politely social distanced from one another while continuing to go about their lives. Restaurants shut down by choice or because of lack of demand, rather than because they were forced to by a government decree. A Utah friend who was visiting her daughter and son-in-law in Sweden in later 2020 told me that Utah County and Sweden had the same general approach to the pandemic, despite their very different philosophies concerning the role of government in general.
Utah is both a state with a relatively low vax rate (due in part to the younger age of the population) and a reasonably high trust in government as encouraged by the LDS church. It also has one of the highest normalized rates of infection on a cumulative basis, while being one of the lowest for rates of death. While I haven’t looked into that anomaly, the younger median age and relatively healthier lifestyle of Utahns (low rates of smoking and drinking, huge culture of outdoor sports and recreation) probably play a factor.
1 Like