You misunderstood what I was trying to say. There is no question that it would have much worse. My point is that, since H1N1 was twice as deadly, we would have expected the relative death rates that we saw, if the response was the same, and there were no advances in treatment and understanding of the virus.
The fact that we had those advances and treatments, and still had the death rates that we would have expected without them, means that the response to the pandemic in the USA was worse than the response in the USA to the 1918 pandemic.
H1N1 was far more lethal than COVID, which was why we would have expected, all things being equal, the numbers of deaths that we observed. However, since things are not equal, and we have better medical treatment and understanding of viruses, we should have observed far fewer dead than we did.
Florida “is going to be the first state to officially recommend against the COVID-19 vaccine for healthy children,” Ladapo said.
There are 42 children under the age of 16 who died of COVID-19 in Florida, according to state Department of Health statistics. Another 481 individuals ages 16 to 29 have died of COVID-19 in the state.
The CDC lost a lot of credibility with its dismissal of the mask mandates practically overnight.
As a practical matter I’d say most parents have already decided whether or not to get their kids vaccinated.
Just to add some context and perspective according to the article 42 children under the age of 16 died of COVID-19 in Florida out of a population of roughly 4.3 million children (0-17)(bolded info added by me).
We need more information to know if vaccination should be promoted for healthy kids. It sounds like at risk kids would still be vaccinated. Did the children and young adults who died have significant comorbidities? What is the risk of side effects from the vaccine for different age groups and genders? We should have access to this info at a granular level in order to make informed decisions. Some countries internationally have been hesitant to vaccinate children, how did they make their policy?
saw this about kids and shots the other day.
if a vax wanes quickly, i’d probably be concerned about continually having to need a vax in my kids if they were sturdy, healthy kids.
here is the last paragraph. to me this would be a concern.
“It also follows an unexpected delay in the process for an emergency use authorization for the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in children 6 months through 4 years of age. The company said new data emerged, and the Food and Drug Administration said it needed more time to evaluate the data.”
That article is really poorly written. It says “In all cases, the vaccine proved to provide strong protection against becoming seriously ill.” And also “ the ability of the vaccine to protect children who got the lowest dose — kids ages 5 to 11 — from catching the virus dropped the most”
So is it saying that the vaccine breakthrough infection rate for younger kids is high, but protection against serious illness remains strong? If that’s the case it sounds worthwhile.
Reporters are really horrible when it comes to using clear, accurate language.
yes, the NPR writer might be weak. Here’s from the NYTimes on the same study. I guess i’m glad i don’t have young kids any more.
"The Pfizer vaccine is the only Covid shot authorized for that age group in the United States. It still prevents severe illness in the children, but offers virtually no protection against infection, even within a month after full immunization, the data, which were collected during the Omicron surge, suggest. "
I don’t know what is right or wrong, but it seems that the florida ruling isn’t completely out of reason.
My older D was young when the chicken pox vaccine was introduced. My pediatrician recommended it immediately. I was hesitant - I had never heard of anyone dying from chicken pox and had no idea if the vaccine would have any issues of its own or if it would wear off, leading vaccinated kids to get chicken pox later in life when it is worse. (I got chicken pox at 13, gave it to my brother who was 18 and my sister got in her 30s - each case more severe than the next which is, apparently, typical). In any case, by the time my D was registering for kindergarten, the vaccine was mandatory. This was in 2003. According to the CDC, in 1998, the year my D was born, there were 6 deaths from chicken pox. In 2003 and the first half of 2004, a total of 6 kids died. So across 50 states we vaccinate kids to prevent 6 deaths a year from chicken pox- and have not had this level of anti-vax sentiment - but Florida doesn’t think its sensible to vaccinate? And if we exclude shingles, chicken pox doesn’t have any post infection impacts. I understand having concerns about vaccinating kids - I certainly had my own - but, in my view, even 16 kids in one state a year is too many.
My oldest got chicken pox before there was a vaccine. It was so unpleasant that I got my second child vaccinated the week he turned one. It was a no-brainer for me.
Of course, since all vaccines available generally are targeted against the ancestral virus, while the current circulating variants have mutated quite a bit from that, it is no surprise that breakthrough infections occur, even though vaccination does lessen the severity of the disease.
Since the US is all-in on mRNA vaccines (the US has among the lowest vaccine diversity among rich countries, and the only non-mRNA vaccine in the US is out of favor), it is no surprise their strengths and weaknesses are most relevant in the US. Since the mRNA vaccines emphasize a quick antibody response, they do seem to fade relatively quickly over time and against variants, although the much larger Moderna dose seems to hold up better with volume (but also has a higher rate of undesired effects). For whatever reason, the vaccine companies are not very quick to make vaccines for variants, even though quick production of new vaccines is a supposed advantage of mRNA vaccines.
The first chicken pox vaccine was developed in Japan in the early 1970’s. It was finally approved in the US in 1995 (Europe did not approve it for general use - only for certain high risk categories).
So…25 years of testing, use etc before approved in US. I can see why it would be a no brainer.
Europe is not monolithic in its varicella vaccination policy. Implementing Universal Varicella Vaccination in Europe: The... : The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal says that “As of 2018, 12 countries had UVV recommendations at the national level (Austria, Andorra, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg and Spain), of which 6 are implemented as publicly funded UVV programs.”
I am sure that none of us really wanted to wait 25 years for a vaccine for Covid. I also think we have come along way with computer modeling to speed things along.
