What are my chances at 2nd-tier math and cs schools like Cornell, Northwestern, and UMich?

Not too long ago, winners of USAMO, USAPhO, etc. were almost certain admits to the tippy-tops. They aren’t anymore. The admission criteria seemed to have changed. Some of these winners were deemed too “one-dimensional” by adcoms. This change also seemed to correspond to changes in the compositions of the winners in these competitions. They are now almost exclusively Asian Americans, or at least predominantly Asian Americans. Unconscious stereotyping?