What are my chances at 2nd-tier math and cs schools like Cornell, Northwestern, and UMich?

The fact that QS lists China’s two leading universities, Tsinghua (at #17 slightly ahead of UPenn) and Peking (at #30 just ahead of UCLA) does not in itself show a decline in US education prowess. And while China is investing heavily, the US remains the most startup friendly country in the world with Silicon Valley alone ranked as the #1 Global Startup Ecosystem ahead of China at #3 - that’s an area in California compared to a country. That said, I agree that there is always a danger in loosing the lead, but I don’t think that will happen due to education. IMO, there are three more real dangers:

  1. Current anti-tech political trend
  2. Failure to offer citizenship to college grads
  3. Heavy regulation on implementing new technology. Read “AI Super-Powers China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order” by Kai-Fu Lee

I’m also reminded of a favorite quote as it applies to US tech policy:
"History is filled with the sound of silken slippers going downstairs and wooden shoes coming up.+ - Voltaire