What are my chances?!?!

Hello all. I’m currently a junior in high school. I got a 1470 on the SAT, 790 on SAT math, and 720 on SAT chem. My target schools are UCI,UCSB,UCLA,Cal,and USCD. A setback is my soph year gpa. I got a 2.9 gpa my soph year, however, it is projected to jump to a 4.0 end of junior year. The only AP class I am taking is ap chem. I only took one not because I didn’t want to challenge myself, but rather my counselor doubted me due to my soph grades, which she had every right to do so. I hold a couple of leadership positions in Key Club and a leadership club outside of school. I taught myself how to play piano and have been playing it everyday. I won my schools talent show this year. Putting personal statements aside, how do I stack up? I plan on taking 4 Ap classes my senior year.

correction: my junior yr gpa is projected to be a 4.0

UC GPA calculator: https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

Post at end of Junior year and then see where you stand.

Unweighted GPA: 3.38
Weighted GPA: 3.42
Weighted and Capped GPA: 3.42
soph and jun
will the increase in gpa help between soph and junior or no

A positive grade trend will help and your application will be viewed as s whole package which includes GPA, test scores, EC’s and essays. The UC’s are very GPA focused so your GPA will hurt your chances at the top UC’s but there are so many good schools beyond the UC’s. Just focus on doing your best this year and then make sure you start with 1-2 safety schools that you are willing to attend before focusing on the rest of your college list.

Here are the admit rates based on UC GPA (capped weighted) and not major specific. Your SAT is very competitive so it will help your chances since it does show you are a capable student.

Best of luck and apply widely.

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.40-3.79:

UCB: 2%
UCLA: 3%
UCSD: 6%
UCD: 15%
UCSB: 14%
UCI: 13%
UCSC: 59%
UCR: 78%
UCM: 92%

25th - 75th percentiles for SAT:

UCB: 1280-1490

UCLA: 1280-1500
UCSD: 1250-1470
UCSB: 1210- 1450
UCD: 1190-1430
UCI: 1190-1420
UCSC: 1170-1380
UCR: 1090-1310
UCM: 1020-1230