What Are My Chances?

Hi, I wanted some feedback on my chances of being admitted to these colleges.

I decided to apply to:
CSU Long Beach
CSU San Luis Obispo
UCLA
UC Irvine
UC Davis
UC Riverside
UC Santa Barbara
UC Santa Cruz
University of Chicago
University of San Diego
Dartmouth College
USC
Whittier College
Occidental College

Here is my information:

CSU GPA: 3.864
UC GPA: 4.25
Weighted GPA: 3.957
Class Rank: Top 10% (71/724)

ACT 30

Finishing High School with 12 AP Classes
(Have Finished)
-Human Geo (3)
-Calculus AB/BC (4)
-Biology (didn’t take the exam)
-Span Lang (5)
-US History (4)
-Chemistry (2)
(For 12th Grade):
-Art History
-Economics (micro/macro)
-Government
-Span Literature
-English Literature

Subject Tests:
Taken Chemistry and US History

Extracurriculars/Clubs

MECHA (Latino): 3 years and Counting
Chess Club: 2 years
Politics Club: 2 years
Special Olympics Volunteer 25+ hours
Docent for 11th Grade LA Field Trip
Organized Campaign of Awareness for Mentally/Physically Disabled Individuals at School

Other:

Personal Information:
I am 17 year Latino male
My Parents are both immigrants and are from Peru
My parents divorced in 2015 and I only live with my father now
Household Income is below $50,000. Disposable is around 34k
I plan on majoring in Economics for 3 years, getting a Masters in Econ for 1 year, and then a Masters in Finance for 1 year.
I am a first generation college student

So what are my chances?

Do you live in California? California state colleges barely give any financial aid for non residents, so it may not be in your best interest to apply to any of those. As for the rest:

University of Chicago - high reach
University of San Diego - mid reach
Dartmouth College - high reach, probably won’t get in
Whittier College - low reach
Occidental College - mid reach

You should get more safety schools. Try to stay away from ivies.

I do live in California actually, in Los Angeles to be exact, however I don’t think you’re qualified to really chance me as you said Whittier college is low-reach despite it having a 69% acceptance rate along with Occidental college being “mid-reach” despite having a 46% acceptance rate. Kinda makes me question your credibility…

Also by your standards shouldn’t Syracuse University should be a high reach due to your 1060?

Wow, you posted to get opinions?

I don’t think you’ll get many posts if you attack anyone who responds.

Going according to the acceptance rates, doesn’t give you a full picture of the type of students that schools accept.
Admissions is never predictable. The schools also look at the feel of the essays and the LOR’s. I hope didn’t come across in your essays, the way you came across on this post.

FWIW: The UC’s don’t use affirmative action to admit students, so being Latino won’t be an advantage at the California publics. Also, being first generation isn’t that much of a hook, in California, so you have to rely on GPA and SAT/ACTs.

Going out of state will be expensive at the privates because although your ACT is in range to be admitted, it is not in range for merit scholarships-the big money.

Assuming your UC GPA posted is uncapped weighted? You realize that other than UCLA/UCB, the rest of the UC’s will consider your capped weighted UC/CSU GPA which makes you a less competitive applicant based on statistical admit data?
Freshman admit rates (2016) for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19:

UCB: 14%
UCLA: 14%
UCSD: 44%
UCSB: 54%
UCD: 58%
UCI: 65%
UCSC: 85%
UCR: 94%
UCM: 96%

I’m sorry but I don’t necessarily understand what you are trying to say, the GPA I posted for the UCs was 4.25, and is uncapped weighted. It doesn’t fall between 3.80-4.19.

Only UCB/UCLA state they consider the uncapped weighted GPA. All the Cal states and the rest of the UC’s use the capped weighted CSU/UC GPA so I posted the ranges for the capped weighted UC GPA admit rates. The UC info center does not post uncapped weighted UC GPA stats so it is best to gauge your chances using the capped weighted UC GPA. Your HS course rigor is good and will be considered in your application review but it is misleading to post the uncapped UC GPA for statisical purposes. SLO also uses capped UC GPA but includes 9-11th grades in their calculation which is different than the rest of the Cal states. With the UC’s so very GPA focused, capped vs uncapped can make a difference.

Freshman admit rates for capped weighted UC GPA of 4.20 or above (2016):

UCB: 42%
UCLA: 54%
UCSD: 87%
UCSB: 85%
UCD: 91%
UCI: 94%
UCSC: 95%
UCR/UCM: 98%

What is unweighted 9-11th GPA since privates have their own weighting scale?

CSU Long Beach: Match
CSU San Luis Obispo: Match-High Match depending upon SLO GPA
UCLA: Reach
UC Irvine: Match- High Match
UC Davis: Match-High Match
UC Riverside: Low Match
UC Santa Barbara: High Match
UC Santa Cruz: Match
University of San Diego: High Match
USC: Low Reach
Whittier College: Safety
Occidental College: Match