What are my daughter's chances for these schools

My daughter is a pretty good student. She has a 4.2 9-12 GPA and a 4.07 10-12 GPA for UCs. Weighted cumulative 4.16 and UW 3.74. She is a CA resident, and right now she is Top 10% of her class of 742 in a very competitive HS, although she may drop out of the top 10% after this semester. Her grades have dropped a bit since second semester soph year, but nothing dramatic, mostly because of two classes. She will have taken AP Euro, US History, Env Science, Calc AB, Gov, Comp Sci Principles and one other when she graduates, and has had Honors Bio, Chem, and English. Starter on Championship Lacrosse team and also working on state level political campaign, also including internship with State Senator. Wants to major in poli sci, econ, or perhaps business if school has it.

Received a 33 Composite on ACT, with 34 Math, 34 Eng, 32 Read and 30 Sci.

Hispanic female

Question I have is she received a C second semester in Honors Chem in 10th grade, a C+ first semester junior year in AP Calc AB, and likely a B- to C in second semester of junior year. Otherwise, all A’s and B’s in APs. Will the C grades affect her chances of getting in to these schools?

What are her chances of getting in, and could she qualify for merit based scholarship for any of these?

Thanks!

UC Santa Barbara
UC Davis
UC San Diego
Cal Poly SLO
San Diego State (Honors College)
U of Washington
U of Oregon (Honors College)
Michigan
Wisconsin
U Georgia
U Texas Austin
Northwestern
Occidental

And she is a legacy at Michigan

You might want to have her try the SAT. It doesn’t have the science section, which was her weakest subscore. Not that a 33 isn’t great; it can just be worth giving the other test a chance in case an even higher score comes easily.

Being URM will not help her with the UC’s - they consider first-generation-to-college (which your d evidently is not) but not racial/ethnic factors. A just-over-4.0 capped-weighted UC GPA (assuming you are doing the “capped” calculation that limits weighting to 8 semesters of AP “grade-bump”) will make the more competitive UC’s reachy - her scores will help, but GPA is considered most heavily. She will have more of an advantage at schools with more “holistic” admissions that also advantage URM applicants.

Does she want to play lacrosse in college, and is she a strong enough player to be recruited, perhaps for D3 teams? Occidental has women’s D3 lacrosse. Denison is another D3 lacrosse school that is particularly strong in her academic areas of interest and might have great merit potential, especially if they want her for sports as well as for her academic strength.

She’s well-qualified for U of Oregon, for sure, though I don’t know the typical cutoffs for Honors. Most of the other OOS flagships you name are quite competitive for OOS - she’d be in the running but not a slam-dunk, and a lot would depend on what major she applies to.

She should have a lot of good options; you’re just naming a lot of very competitive schools that could probably go either way, and that are expensive for OOS and don’t give much merit $. She should have lots of good options - there’s just a fundamental decision to be made as to whether you’re prioritizing merit eligibility or gunning for the most competitive schools possible.

Which major will she be applying for at UT Austin? The competitiveness of the major will determine her chances there. I can’t quote the stats since it’s been a long weekend and I need more coffee but the majority of UT Austin admits are reserved for in-state students in the top 6% of their class and those kids and parents have been gunning for admission and playing the rank game since junior high.

I wouldn’t count on any merit $$ at UT Austin either.

I will only address the Cal states and UC’s. As mentioned in post #2 URM status is not considered by California publics. Her stats are competitive but the UC’s and CSU’s give little merit aid and are more focused on need-based aid for eligible students.

What is your college budget since you are looking for merit aid? I am assuming you will not qualify for need-based aid?

If she wants to use her URM status and her stats for merit aid, then focusing on private schools where they would appreciate her diversity and where her stats would put in the 75th percentile should be her targets.

I also see no real “safety” schools on her list. She needs 2 schools where she has a guaranteed admission, that is affordable and she is willing to attend.

SLO and SDSU could be good target schools but definitely not solid safety schools. They do offer a few merit scholarships (Webers Honor college scholarships for SDSU) and a few departmental scholarships at SLO but again none of these are guaranteed.

UC’s have the Regent scholarships but in general these are targeted for the top 1-2% of applicants. Below are the amounts given by each UC campus.

  • UC Berkley $2,500
  • UC Davis $7,500
  • UC Irvine $2,500
  • UCLA $2,000
  • UC Merced $7,000
  • UC Riverside $10,000
  • UC San Diego $2,000
  • UC Santa Barbara $6,000
  • UC Santa Cruz $5,000

Below is some UC statistical data based on 2018 Freshman.

2018 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 10%
UCLA: 9%
UCSD: 34%
UCSB: 38%
UCD: 41%
UCI: 38%
UCSC: 70%
UCR: 84%
UCM: 95%

2018 UC capped weighted GPA averages:
UCB: 4.23
UCLA: 4.23
UCSD: 4.16
UCSB: 4.13
UCI: 4.13
UCD: 4.11
UCSC: 3.96
UCR: 3.81
UCM: 3.71

25th - 75th percentiles for ACT:
UCB: 30-35
UCLA: 31-35
UCSD: 28-34
UCSB: 28-34
UCD: 26-33
UCI: 26-33
UCSC: 26-32
UCR: 22-30
UCM: 19-26

The kids I’ve known who are non Hispanic did not do well in the schools with the type of number spreads as the schools on your list. Certainly no merit money. Females are at a disadvantage st LACs and a sliding GPA is not met well.

Ask the school GC for what they send to colleges. Most do not send a comprehensive transcript. Usually just the year end grades show. No quarter grades, no exam grades. Except senior year when sometimes the first quarter and certainly the first semester grades are used in consideration. So that C is not likely to show.

APS taken junior year count heavily as strength in curriculum. Or if your school has very high success rate in kids getting 4s and 5s Also certain APS like BC calc count more heavily.

She needs some safety schools both financial and admissions wise. That she is Hispanic will give her a bump up in many private schools and a shot at URM merit awards. Also at state schools seeking more diversity. But with that factor neutered as it is in the Cal system, her in state choices appear to be reached to me. My brother is shocked that kids with what he considered great stats not getting into SanDiego State and SLO and causing him to rethink his daughter’s prospects for the in state schools. Up till this year, he was sure she’d get into those very CA schools you’ve listed. He’s now added San Jose State and some other Cal States to the list, along with the less selective UCs. It’s unbelievable how difficult it is to get into the more popular CA state schools.

Merit is a whole other issue and you should start researching now. Some schools like Chicago , Rice, Hopkins, and another (can’t remember) recently have come up with great tuition deals for families formerly locked out of financial aid. They are also looking hard for URMs. You might want to look into such schools.

So many out-of-state publics, which may offer little to no financial aid to out-of-state students. Run their Net Price Calculators to make sure they are affordable. (Personally, I tend to be biased against paying out-of-state costs for public universities if there is a private option of similar price and quality.)

Keep in mind that at competitive universities with undergrad business, it is usually possible to transfer from business to arts & sciences but transferring the other way, from arts & sciences into business, may be more difficult - depends on the school. If she chooses arts & sciences, she may also be able to minor in a business area - something to check out for each school.

I’d be interested in hearing opinions on the C question. I have a (URM) sophomore in the same situation with honors chem and have been assuming that the letter on the transcript will hurt regardless of where the gpa ends up (probably not aiming for top-50).

I can only speak about University of Washington Seattle. We know in-state students with stronger stats than your daughter’s who were not admitted, not admitted to major, or waitlisted. Furthermore, three 4.0 UW GPA students were not admitted to UW’s Honors Program.

None of those OOS choices will get you close to in-state UC prices if that’s what you are looking for in terms of budget. Adding in UCSC/UCR/UCM would therefore seem wise.

Arizona, ASU and particularly Utah are likely to be better bets for merit compared to the OOS publics on your list. I wouldn’t pick Oregon over any of those three.

Thanks for the great replies. A little more clarity here.

She will likely apply as undecided which is the best path according to her college GC. The GC is a reader on the UCLA admissions committee so I would believe she understands how the UCs work. Will applying undeclared greatly improve her chances?

Her SAT score was 1410, still very good, but not better than a 33 on the ACT. I think she will take the ACT again in September to hopefully get a better superscore to use in places like UDub and UGA, both of which allow superscoring, unlike the UCs.

I don’t see my daughter wanting to play lacrosse in college, D3 or not. Maybe club, but I doubt that.

Budget wise, we have saved enough for both daughters (other is in 7th grade) to attend a UC tuition and living expenses. I just don’t want to have to shell out another $80K+ for Washington or Wisconsin (assuming she gets in) OOS. Another school I would encourage her to apply to is IU Bloomington as they give merit scholarships. I would think Oregon and SDSU regular admission could be her safety schools.

My daughter would like the “full” college experience, meaning major athletic teams to cheer for, etc and a bigger school. While UCSB doesn’t have football, they have other major sports. I get this, having gone to Michigan and thinking the same way (and my SATs were nothing like her ACT).

Besides USC (and Northwestern), any private schools you recommend applying to with the full college experience that could be a target? Was thinking Santa Clara.

We won’t qualify for need-based aid. I make enough money to not qualify, have money saved up and assets, but not enough to be comfortable with $50-$75K/year all in. Like a lot of people.

Even though Michigan is on the list, I think $64K/year undergrad there is ridiculous, and I’m an alum. We may just apply to see if she gets in and then decide.

Are there good in state schools I’m also missing, or privates where she could get good merit based aid and have the full college experience?

I agree with SDSU but Oregon is expensive OOS with minimal merit (another $80K+ just like UW). What sort of school would you be prepared/able to pay $200K-$250K+ for? If that’s not an option then I don’t see why it’s worth applying to most of the schools on your list. IIRC IU’s merit scholarships are limited to about $11K pa (unless you get the highly competitive full ride) so again it’s close to $200K.

Arizona, ASU and Utah all have PAC-12 sports and better merit - my D18 is at Utah and loves it (she turned down the UCs to attend and got a great merit scholarship).

We found that merit aid at many private colleges brought costs down into the $50K per year range, but rarely got you much below that unless you looked specifically at full tuition scholarships at much lower ranking schools.

I have heard nothing but great things about Utah. I’m going to encourage her to apply there. Thank you.

Oregon gives $15K automatically for a 33 or higher on the ACT. Have talked to their local admissions rep. We visited Eugene last weekend. While we liked it, we weren’t “wowed” by the town and preferred UDub. The weather isn’t great for a SoCal kid, but the same goes for Washington, Wisconsin, or Michigan.

Have you looked into WUE schools?

This year Utah generally gave a full tuition scholarship for OOS students with 34-35 ACT (the OOS Presidential scholarship which includes fees and a housing allowance appears to need a 36). Then there are also 30 competitive full ride (Eccles) scholarships per year. OOS students can also get in-state tuition after the first year if they stay for the summer.

She is just below the cutoff of 34 on the ACT at Utah.

I’m wondering how SDSU isn’t a safety school as their own admissions profile shows an average GPA of 3.9 and ACT score of 27. Surely her 4.1 CSU GPA and ACT of 33 would qualify her (non honors), right.

Also Cal Poly’s profile is a 4.0 GPA and 29 ACT for liberal arts. https://admissions.calpoly.edu/prospective/profile.html

The CSU GPA benefits her as she did really well her freshman year.

Anyone think the Cs in difficult classes like Honors Chem and AP Calc really hurts her?

SMU has the full college experience (“boulevarding”= tailgating before football games, etc) and offers merit aid.

My kid’s list is similar to your D’s. So are her stats. SDSU and Cal Poly are reaches because of the high numbers of applicants. Last week, we met with a admissions rep at SDSU and he told us GPA and test scores are it. Cal Poly considers a little more. Its a game of musical chairs even after whittling the pool down to the top students.

My S was class of '14 so its been a while but he got into CPSLO with a C or two on his transcript.

I would also suggest Arizona/ASU, as they are generally cheaper than most OOS public schools and they will give merit.

OP’s daughter’s GPA and test scores are in-line for those 2 schools. Also agree with Utah-pretty underrated school that most people don’t think about.

My DD’s stats are similar to yours, and so is list of schools interested in…we were at Uof Oregon this past weekend and liked the school but didn’t love it, drove through Oregon State on our way back to airport and actually liked the “look and feel” of it better but because it was Sunday unable to get a real feel. We did a spring break tour of some southern schools as DD is also looking for the full college experience and are now interested in Auburn and U of Miami (although this school is too expensive!), toured Alabama and were not wowed at all. I’m an SDSU alum and worry about it being as good of a fit as some others, but she is planning on applying there.