<p>I just received my Fall 2012 PSAT scores back today, and I scored a 219 (this is in the 99th percentile). I live in California. I have no idea if I have a chance of becoming a National Merit Semifinalist or not. I know that the cut-off this year for CA was a 220, 2011: 221, 2010: 219, and 2009: 218. I heard that the cut-off score for my state will not be released until next Sept. </p>
<p>Do I have a chance on qualifying with my 219? </p>
<p>Is my PSAT score the only factor in becoming a NMSF? Or do they review my report card (4.0 unweighted), my SAT score (which was a 2270), etc. as well? I am a little bit confused about the process here. </p>
<p>Once you have made nmsf, they will review your Writing adjusted SAT, high school transcript, personal essay, and school recommendation to determine if you made finalist.</p>
<p>There is really no way to tell if it is too high or too low. As the OP noted, the number bounces around a bit each year. He might get lucky. But no way to tell until September, as the OP also noted. Correct that the only factor is your PSAT score and your state (although boarding schools and expatriate students have a different cutoff).</p>